The three numbers on a game
- Moneyline: who wins outright.
- Spread: the favorite must win by more than the points line.
- Total (over/under): combined points scored.
Implied probability and the vig
- +150 → 100 ÷ 250 = 40%.
- -110 → 110 ÷ 210 ≈ 52.4%.
- Both sides of a game add up to more than 100%; the extra is the book's margin (the vig).
- Prediction markets like Kalshi quote the same idea in cents: 62¢ ≈ 62%.
Why line shopping matters
Different sportsbooks post slightly different prices. Getting -105 instead of -115 on the same bet adds up over a season. Rebel Intel compares books and prediction markets side by side. For entertainment and research; bet only what you can afford to lose.