Rebels Edge · Tue, Sep 8, 2026

AI's Most Overlooked Winner

Summary

The discussion covers rising oil prices, their impact on stocks and volatility, and the outlook for Oracle and Salesforce. Pete expresses optimism about Oracle ahead of earnings and highlights Salesforce’s recent results, while acknowledging downside risks for both stocks. The conversation later shifts to college football and the relationship between payroll spending and success in baseball.

WTI crude approached $93, pressuring stocks, although major indexes recovered some early losses.
The VIX rose toward 16 before easing below 15.5 as markets stabilized.
Oracle’s upcoming Thursday earnings are framed as a test of its cloud growth, infrastructure expansion and large backlog.
Pete is bullish on Oracle ahead of earnings, citing peer results and Morgan Stanley’s $210 price target, but stresses that revenue and earnings must meet expectations.
Oracle’s broader business positioning could provide resilience, though Pete expects it would still fall during a sharp AI-sector selloff.
Salesforce reportedly delivered 10.8% revenue growth, an earnings beat and higher full-year guidance; investment gains and a nearly 40% monthly stock rally raise sustainability and pullback concerns.
The sports segment debates college football officiating and argues that lower-payroll baseball teams can compete through effective scouting and roster construction.

ORCL CRM MS

Full transcript

Oil prices are jumping. What does that mean for you? We'll tell you in just a few. [music] [music] [music]
Yes, we talked about it and oil prices are jumping and we are seeing that moving to the upside. And how is that affecting the markets? Well, the markets are not very happy about that as as we actually penetrate and get up and above that 93 level. Now, we've been shifting around a little bit. We were at highs of
over 2% to the upside in terms of uh crude oil, but WTI, but the reality is the markets uh were taking a pretty big hit early, but they're kind of recovering. And I think it's because we've seen this before. It's happened before and it seems like the markets are
digesting it that much more quickly because the Dow was down about one and a quarter percent now it's down about 1%.
You look over at the NASDAQ down about a half a percent now it's about flat. S&P same thing. So it's something where we know what's going on. We know it's about the straits and and what do we do now?
And I think that's what people are looking for. So it's interesting to see that oil is up there again towards 93.
At some point in time, we're going to see this start to slip back, but it certainly is affecting a lot of different things, including the volatility index. So, let's jump into the VIX. I mean, what's going on with the VIX? Well, crude oil. Crude oil is going higher. That's going to bring the volatility index that much higher. And that's exactly what we'd seen this
morning, and it still continues to hold up. Now, it was up 2 and a.5% or something like that early on when we were pressing ourselves very close to 16. It's now pulled back just a little bit and it's just underneath that 1550.
You can see that on the charts, but it's also been as low as 1530 on the day. So, it's still up, but it's actually coming back down off of some of those highs.
So, interesting to see how the volatility index is moving. The markets are starting to shift around a little bit. And I'll tell you, we do have a couple of stocks that we're going to hit just very rapidly that I think uh I think it's really important. And one of them is Oracle. Now, when we talk about that, we're talking about a stock that
doesn't have their earnings out just yet. They haven't reported yet, and it's very, very late in the season. And I think what makes it so interesting is the fact that they are basically alone in the earnings season. And here they are come Thursday, they're going to be giving out their Q1 earnings. It's going to be pretty interesting. The Oracle
cloud and the the positioning that they're making and the infrastructure growth that they've been talking about.
They've also got a very large backlog.
But you can see this stock, it has had an absolutely incredible rise to the upside of late. Morgan Stanley actually has out there to for a price target of 210. Now take a look at where that stock is right now. So the stock at the beginning of the day got as high as 170.
It's pulled back. It's settling in right where you're seeing it right now. Call it 164. But in the pre-market, it had a nice big spike. So, did they uh will they be able to have revenue growth that they've been talking about for a while about 28%. That's a strong possibility, something north of 19 billion. Oracle
has been very very successful in the past. They've got all kinds of pivoting that they're doing from the cloud and working on infrastructure growth. So, this one I think is going to be very very interesting and you can see the move that we are already seeing in front of us now. And it's going to be very interesting. But that's not until Thursday. So, keep an eye on that. We'll
be watching for any unusual option activity. We did have some last week.
We'll see if we have some this week as well. Now, Pete, Pete, I've got I've got a question for you about Oracle uh long term. Uh a as we get deeper into the AI phenomenon, we start finding out who the winners and losers are. Do you see Oracle continuing like regardless of who the winners and losers are because
there's such a a a deep infrastructure >> play? Do they do they stay on top no matter what or is this potentially something that people need to be aware of a a pullback when some of them start falling off?
>> Yeah. Well, I think they will get pulled down with some of the others, but I think that the reality is that they have taken things from a slightly different approach. And because of that, I think that Oracle has a chance to be able to do well specifically with just about any markets. I mean, they they've just built
themselves into such an amazing behemoth. And I'll tell you, um, very very interesting, very calm stock. It's up it was up about what, 3% today or something like that. I think there's a lot of reasons to to keep an eye on on Oracle and what they're able to do, but I think they're navigating very well through what a lot of us are watching
and all of us are watching. What do we watch every day? AI, right? I mean, so that that is the key word and um so we'll see. I you know, it's you're not going to be able to avoid if I mean, if there's a big pull to the downside, uh Oracle will get dragged along. There's
no doubt about that. But um but they aren't as deep into the AI story and I think because of that they they've positioned themselves really well and they still have Oracle cloud and the infrastructure growth there as well.
>> Are you so are you uh bullish on them going into going into earnings?
>> I am and I and I I am because of what we've seen already during this earnings season that we all thought was probably done. [laughter] But when you look at some of the names and some of the big names and and how they did this past quarter, I would expect for Oracle to be in that same category. I think that they can reach the levels that people were expecting
that they'd be able to to put up there.
So I yes, I think this is a stock that that has now they can't miss you you can't miss on your revenue and you can't miss on your earnings. So that's you know something that we'll find out about Thursday. But if they do the standard sort of what we've seen this whole Q2, I think this is a stock that'll probably
hop up pretty good and I think that's why Morgan Stanley decided to put out that price target of 210 already ahead of all of this come Thursday.
>> Love it. Love it. Love it. Tell us about Salesforce.
>> Yeah, Salesforce is an interesting one.
Uh, you know, in the pre-markets the stock was uh doing pretty well and and it still is, but it's kind of pulled back from where it was. I'll tell you the stock itself is up in a monstrous way nearly four 40% nearly in one month.
So August has really treated them well.
Here we are now going into September. Um you look at their revenue, you look at their Q2 numbers, up 10.8% on the revenue side of things. They beat on their earnings. They raised on their fullear guidance. They did pretty much everything that you would want to see.
So, um, you know, I think this is another one where to hold on to it. You know, the beat of the earnings was strong. Um, the strategic investments that they've got, I think, is the one thing that people are probably a little bit concerned about because that's not something that's going to always be
there, but it was there this past quarter and so they were able to obviously talk about it. But you know those in investments like they did with Enthropic and some of the other names that are out there is something very good and certainly boosted up what they were able to put up there in terms of some of their numbers. It's a high-profile software company that I
think is pivoting into AI and the recovery side of things. I think this is a stock that that does have some promise to the upside, but we'll we'll be seeing because that's already been put out there for us. And any any questions on this one that you're curious about? Oh yeah, absolutely. I'm I'm curious if you think it's a if you think it's a
band-aid or if it's a meaningful shift because I know there was some concern that AI developments would essentially replace >> uh a lot of the value that that Salesforce offers.
>> Mhm.
>> And so so is that is that is that is that a lasting is that is this something that we can that we can actually take comfort in with Salesforce or is it just kind of like if if things go in that direction, they're still kind of screwed. Yeah. Well, I don't know that they're screwed, so to speak, but I but I do think that they are positioned in a
spot where obviously, like so many, they they will ride with the crowd, I think, to some degree. And and you know, that that part is is is something that, you know, you have to understand. Now, that all being said, as I said earlier, this August run 40%. I mean, that's that's really pretty strategically
unbelievable, right? I mean, you look at that and that is a a really big this is a major company that obviously has an incredible market cap and you know for a stock like that to have that kind of move I think we've all got to be impressed. Could it pull back?
Absolutely. It's gone up almost 40%. So, sure you could see some some pullbacks I think in potentially into the future.
So, something to watch out for there.
But that all being said, um they've had a a very nice quarter and I think this is one of those stocks where um depending on what you're looking for, this one could be a safe haven to some to some degree. But you also have to remember that it is a very very sharp move in the month of August. Very sharp.
All right. Do you want to do a little sports action? I know you got some uh some film as a guy from the state of Michigan. Not necessarily the University of Michigan, but from the state of Michigan. There's a lot to be said, huh?
[laughter] And people are still talking about it.
>> Absolutely. Yeah. It was a It was a It was a >> People are angry.
>> A lot of people are angry, especially in Kamazoo, Michigan. Um, >> can you imagine? Can you imagine? They had it. They had this. Look at him running off the field. The classiest thing that I did see, however, was so for the people who didn't watch this, what really ended up happening was so
they throw this ball and it and it and it lands, but unfortunately it's out for for Michigan. It's it lands. It's not caught. It's out of the field of play and all the rest of that. So, you look at that clock, it sure looks like it went to triple zeros, right? But they
got back one second. And in that next one second, they hiked the ball. Um, they actually made it and there it is. I mean, it's just unbelievable, right? And if you're somebody from the Western Michigan side of things, you're just thinking, how did we get jobbed on this?
I mean, that that looks very, very much like the game should have been over, you know, and everybody's going to have opinion. If you're a Michigan fan, you're probably like, well, but you know, you know, you can have an excuse of some sort. And I think that the reality is I loved the fact that there was a coach for the University of
Michigan who went to the Western Michigan sidelines to apologize to them about how things played out and give them hope going into the future because they played a great game against the University of Michigan. Michigan is obviously a very big power Big 10 power and amazing football program for a lot
of years. I lost to them I think three of the four times that I had the opportunity to play against them which actually was amazing and we were able to steal one but um because they're that good and they were been that good for a very long time but you know they had a lot of penalties they had uh three
turnovers in the game and at the very end of the game with that unbelievable pass from Underwood the quarterback who was the number one kid coming out of high school a year ago. Uh just an amazing story. So, as far as anything else, I I like what's going on. Um, I'm sitting there watching Oregon. You know,
it's it's funny because Oregon's another one. The number two.
>> Before we before we move on, Pete, I just I just got to ask you, >> what do you think? I mean, just from a straight >> game over game over.
>> Game over. I mean, [laughter] look at that. How that ball, it's it's gone. And it's at 00. I mean, it it really was.
And it I don't know how they came back to change their mind. And I think that there's a lot of folks out there who would more folks would probably agree with the call. Well, not the call, but the call that that game should have been over. And I'll tell you what, can you imagine Kalamazoo how exciting that would have been for these guys at
Western Michigan to go there, win the football game, but now they pull it away.
>> Uh that that would be I mean that that that would be a crowning moment for your life.
>> Oh. um that to be a to be a part of that. I accept the explanation that if if the official clock is not the same as the broadcast clock, the clock that the rest of us can see, I can accept that.
But that is a problem that needs to be addressed ultimately like that that can't that can't be the case.
>> Yeah.
>> You know, it's it's amazing somebody that that everybody says you got to win this game. you will win the game. These guys aren't up to playing against you because you're such a power.
And that goes for so many different schools. Um, but I'll tell you this, this one would have been just the greatest feather in the cap for Western Michigan. I mean, this really was something special for them. And I feel like it was taken away. Everybody's going to have an opinion, though.
Everybody, whether it's one side or the other, but I will say this, I think it's lopsided. And I think more people think that Western Michigan won this than people who thought there was one more second on the clock.
>> And you you don't want to have an asterisk on on that victory. Um it's it's not a it's not a good look. All right. Well, uh talk to us about uh Oregon.
>> Well, how about this? You know, the number one team in the nation right now is Ohio State. They won. So, let's forget about that. It would they they did the same thing. They they played against somebody they're supposed to beat and they beat them. Okay. They beat them pretty good. Oregon's number two.
Oregon, who is, you know, Phil Knight's got all the money in the world. These guys have got an unbelievable NIL, probably one of the highest in all of college sports. They're playing Boise State, who's unranked, and they did win, but they won 34-27.
Both quarterbacks ended up throwing three touchdowns. It was a heck of a game. And again, for a game like that against number two going against somebody who's not even ranked to be that tight of a game is absolutely extraordinary. And the game that was an absolute shocker, but it didn't it
wasn't ever close was LSU and Clemson.
Now Clemson came in there and they got put in the woodshed. I mean, they absolutely Lane Keifin had a game plan. He played it out. They've absolutely beat the living tar out of Clemson 51-10. But that's
really not the whole story. The whole story ends up being this. LSU put up 644 yards in the game. 335 yards passing and 310 yards rushing. So, we like to call that an oldfashioned buttkicking. And I
cleaned it up. But it really was. and Lane Keifin, you know, for all the flack and all the publicity and all the things about him trying to get guys that were in the NFL that got cut that want to come back to college and all the rest of it and the fact that he wanted to do that. Now, he hasn't done it yet, but um he's been talking about it. Everybody's
talking about what Lane, you know, Lane's a bad guy because he's trying to pick up these guys and all the rest of it. Somehow he parted his way through all of that and and a and a team like Clemson that is always somebody who seems to be ranked and has had some great players and coaches over a lot of years, it's always going to be one of
those those schools that's going to be out there, but uh LSU just put them in the woodshed and absolutely beat them and beat the tar out of them. So that one I thought was pretty interesting.
All right. So, I know we're going to talk about some money in baseball next and and I'm I'm really really curious about this because uh you you've talked a lot about how um having the biggest budget doesn't necessarily going to mean you're the you're the best team on the field. And I've got questions for you like what what is it about the game of
baseball that makes it that way? Is there something in the mechanics of the sport that lends itself to that kind of dynamic where where some of the least funded teams can actually, you know, put together a a a top performing team, a top performing season?
>> Yeah, I think the problem is this. I think there are a lot of owners out there who have a lot of money. Um the the Mets being a great example, the Yankees being a great example, obviously the Dodgers being another great example.
They have all the money in the world.
And in some cases, it works pretty well for them, right? I mean, they they've got all this money. They're paying some of the top athletes that are there. But I don't think it's as big of a difference in terms of unbelievable pitcher and next level pitcher. I don't I just don't think that's as far away.
And I think that's probably true baseball-wise in a lot of positions. In football, it's a different story. When you've got a quarterback, you've you know, they are the team. they are who absolutely moves them up and down the field and all the rest of it. And you almost always have to have somebody really special to be a a football team
that's going to be competitive going into the playoffs and maybe all the way out of the Super Bowl. So, it's a much different sport from that perspective.
But, um, it's a really great question because you look at Tampa, you look at Milwaukee, and you look at those two teams, Tampa, they're four games ahead of the Yankees. And Tampa's we're very close to the very bottom of what their payroll looks like. Milwaukee, same
story. Great fans. Tampa, great fans.
People people will go to those games.
And why do they do it? Because they've got teams that despite the fact that they don't have all the biggest names out there, they've got players who can play and eventually they're going to lose them. So then they've got to find them again and they maybe are bad for a year or two. But the reality is teams like Tampa, teams like Milwaukee, there
are others out there as well where, you know, it's not that big a difference in baseball, the the top pitchers versus the next level pitchers. It's just it's just not same thing. I think you could say that about a lot of those batters as well. I mean, there's always guys who kind of creep up out of nowhere. And
it's just really, really interesting to me how baseball has been able to do this. And I think, you know, kudos to Tampa, kudos to Milwaukee, kudos to places like Cincinnati and others where, you know what, even the Minnesota Twins, a lot of the times they can have teams that are very, very competitive despite
the fact that their payroll is extremely low. And I just find it here we are, we're getting into September, October's not that far away. We're only talking about a couple of weeks at this point in time, right? I mean, we're we're really getting close. And you look at somebody
like for instance Milwaukee, their point differential go their bases that they or runs that they have, they are number one in the entire baseball world. They're 169. They have more more runs than they're the giving up. And you know the
Dodgers are at 155. So not that far away. But it just shows you with that kind of of use of what they're doing with their money, how they're getting the players and how you're getting these players to to buy into this whole thing.
You know what? They will leave. They'll go somewhere else and get more money at some point in time, but for right now, they've got them. And they've got unbelievable offensive and defensive teams. I think when you look at what's going on in the sport of baseball, and I think it's really, really cool. football. I don't think you could do that. I I I really
don't. And we see it in college a lot, right? I mean, there are upsets, but when we look at college football and we see who has the most NIL money, well, Ohio State, where are they ranked?
Number one. You know, who's number two?
Oregon. Well, they got a lot of money.
They're number two. You know, you could go down that whole thing. And I'll tell you what, that NIL money that now is, you know, bursting out of what was a $20 million project and a 30 million and a 40 million, they will be over 50 million in not in this coming year that they're
spending for the players, which is why you see the same names up there all the time because it is different at that level.
>> So, what is what does that imply for for baseball? Do you think that there's there's a possibility that some of the strategy uh behind all of this money is is less about developing teams that win championships and more about developing teams that you know like you spend the money on the superstar because that gets
better ratings on TV that sells more tickets. It's about selling tickets.
It's not about winning games.
>> U is is that is that what you think? Do you think that there's there's kind of like an eyes open look at, you know, an an actual kind of like explicit somewhere in in in one of those rooms that maybe you've been in at some point.
>> Uh we're talking about like >> we're not talking about the World Series. We're talking about >> selling hot dogs.
>> Right. Right. Well, you know what?
People like winners, too. Right. I mean, so the one push back that I'd say would be because they love a good winning team even though they don't know all the names maybe and they probably start to learn some of those names and and because they are winning as much as they are winning, right? And they are hitting the ball better and pitching the ball at
a high level and all the rest of it. And I think a lot of that has to do they they're going to go to those stadiums. I mean, you know, I mean, are are there times when they're going to be a little bit lighter than a Mets or a Yankees or a Dodgers or whomever? Sure, absolutely.
But when you're a winner, people want to be there. They want to be a part of it.
And so, um, you know, as this as as it goes through the season and as these guys continue to rise and get a little bit further away and a little bit further away from the number two Yankees in in the case of Tampa, um, I think that makes a big difference. I think that makes a huge difference. So, uh, people will support them, especially
when they're excited about the fact that they're in competition, right? They're there and and they don't really care as much about who you paid and how much you paid and all the rest of it. They want a winning team and they've got it in places like Tampa and Milwaukee. And I think I think that makes a really big difference. And I think a lot of people
get excited about the fact that maybe their team isn't such highpaying team that they've got more bluecollar guys, but they're bluecollar and they can ball [laughter] and that's really what matters for fans.
>> I know that's definitely the case in Minnesota.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah. I've been I've been I've been hearing about the Twins uh Yeah. for for 20 years. I've had friends, you know, like I was living on the West Coast and I had friends from from Minnesota, you know, >> like just just it was it was all about the twins all the time.
>> Yeah. Yeah. Well, great stuff, man. I know that I know you're a busy man and I really appreciate you stepping in here a little bit here and there and wherever.
And uh hopefully we'll see John one of these days again. [laughter] >> All right. Thanks for having me on. When are we coming back?
>> I think we're going to be back tomorrow.
We hope. And uh whether it's Jared or John, either way, we're going to be here 1:00 p.m. Eastern time.

Transcript from the show's YouTube captions; automatic captions may contain errors. Educational content, not investment advice.