Gas Prices⛽️ Prediction markets have national gas prices pinned in the $4.48-$4.50 range this week

Summary

The speakers discuss prediction-market expectations for declining national gasoline prices after earlier bets on prices above $5.50 failed to materialize. They highlight a recent drop in crude oil and say the outlook depends on developments involving Iran, while noting that pump prices typically fall more slowly than they rise.

• The title places this week's predicted national gasoline prices around $4.48–$4.50.
• Earlier prediction-market bets anticipated gasoline prices above $5.50 following military action involving Iran.
• The speakers cite $4.51 as this year's highest AAA national average gasoline price.
• Current prediction-market bets suggest gasoline prices will continue declining.
• Crude oil reportedly fell about 4% in a single day.
• Developments involving Iran and crude oil movements remain key uncertainties.
• Previously purchased, higher-cost crude can delay the pass-through of falling oil prices to consumers.

1. 0:00

   These are people on Cal sheet that were as you can see from the far left side of that graph betting that after we invaded Iran, we were going to see gasoline prices over $5.50.

2. 0:15

   Never happened. In fact, the highest we've got this year unless you're living in California and God help you if you are.

3. 0:23

   The the highest it's been average AAA rates that every single day Pete. The highest it's been is 4.51.

4. 0:32

   So, we've been coming down down down as far as crude oil and now the bets are that gasoline prices are going to keep coming down at least according to Cal sheet.

5. 0:43

   >> Mhm. Yeah, that's going to be pretty interesting John. Um it all is just dependent. You and I both know it. I mean it's it's what does it look like?

6. 0:51

   You know, how are things over there with Iran? What does it look like in terms of the movement of crude and all the rest of it? And so, you know what? Yeah, there are days where it pops up there pretty good. And there's also those days where it pulls back. And you know what?

7. 1:05

   We we're on a pullback moment now and it's pretty interesting to watch. You know, it's pretty rapid quite frankly. A 4% move to the downside in a single day.

8. 1:14

   If they can follow this up at all. Um and we get towards what you said John.

9. 1:19

   Just maybe it's a flat 90. Those prices at the pump better move as fast when we are going down as they did when it's going up. That's all I can tell you because otherwise these guys are ripping us off, man.

10. 1:31

    >> Yeah, well, they are >> [laughter] >> and it will never go down as fast as it goes up. Just doesn't happen for And there's a whole bunch of reasons.

11. 1:40

    Not all of them are nefarious, but at least one of them is. You know, they they bought the crude oil, they refined it and then by the time they bring it to market if prices are down, they still paid the higher price to get it to market. Anyway.

12. 1:59

    >> Mhm.

13. 2:02

    >> Hey.

14. 2:04

    Hey.

15. 2:07

    Hey.

16. 2:09

    Hey.

17. 2:12

    Hey.

18. 2:14

    Hey.

Transcript from the show's YouTube captions; automatic captions may contain errors. Educational content, not investment advice.