Rebels Edge · Mon, Jun 1, 2026
Iran Shocks Markets… But Software Stocks Keep Soaring
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The hosts discuss Iran-related tensions, higher crude prices, and a relatively muted response from stocks and volatility. They highlight strength in software shares, bullish options activity, and reported corporate developments involving MGM, Taylor Morrison, and Salesforce, before turning to basketball and college sports.
- Crude reportedly jumped about 7% after Iran withdrew from negotiations, while the S&P 500 remained nearly flat and the VIX hovered around 16.
- MGM rose from roughly $44 to above $51; the hosts linked the move to takeover speculation and previously observed unusual options activity.
- The hosts described a proposed Berkshire Hathaway acquisition of Taylor Morrison valued at approximately $8.5 billion, with a 24% premium.
- Salesforce reportedly gained double digits following strong earnings and plans to invest $2 billion in France through 2030, including a Paris AI hub.
- The hosts remained bullish on software ETF IGV, citing purchases of 5,500 July $110 calls when shares were around $100.
- Microsoft and Palantir options activity, alongside ServiceNow's nearly 11% gain, reinforced their positive software-sector outlook.
- Palo Alto Networks was flagged for an earnings-related watch list.
- The closing sports discussion covered Victor Wembanyama's potential and the rebuilding of the Pacific Coast college conference.
Full transcript
Welcome back to The Rebel's Edge. Today, Pete and I discuss exactly what's going on with Iran, and it may surprise you, but they want more of what they had before, not less, and they're about to get it. We'll discuss on today's Rebel's
Edge.
>> [music] [music] >> Welcome back, folks. I'm here at Liberty National Golf Course.
>> What?
>> Yep, exactly right, PETE.
>> WHERE WAS MY INVITE?
>> He was supposed to be here, folks, but he couldn't make it.
>> [laughter] >> Um it is the Velocity Clearing annual event, the fifth annual event, Pete, and uh we'll see exactly how many I can keep in the fairway today.
>> [laughter] >> Well, you and I aren't really It's just so people know, we're not really golfers. Can we hit the ball? Hell yeah, we both can hit the ball pretty good.
Can we go to a driving range or one of those places? Heck yeah, we can have a lot of fun. BUT PLAYING REAL GOLF?
IT'S MORE ABOUT A CIGAR, maybe a drink, and and driving around and just seeing how well that slice slice or hook is going.
>> Oh yeah, it's going to be fun, and we're going to have I mean, there's already so many nice folks here, Pete, that are celebrating the fifth annual. Uh so, we'll have to follow up on that tomorrow. But for today, Pete, for macro, I'm going to say, well, it's kind
of strange that Iran decided to pull out of the negotiations for peace because what happens when they pull out is exactly what was happening a month ago, which means that uh likely the US is going to light them up.
By light them up, I do mean light them up. The lights are going to go out and uh we'll see, but I I think they'll be forced into a much worse deal because of this uh negotiating technique, Pete.
>> Yeah, it seems like a mistake to me, John, by by them. Uh you know, everything that we've seen previously and everything else. And And you know what? Uh with Hexa with the president, with the guys out there, I don't know. I don't know that I would go the the direction they're going. But it it
hasn't really hurt the market that much uh as of yet.
So, you know, yes, the Dow is down a little bit. The Dow was down a little bit. Uh but, you know, the Nasdaq's kind of still somewhat hanging in there or whatever. It's in positive territory.
So, um you know, it's interesting because, you know, in the past, when we've heard any kind of talk like this, we'd usually see the market just get, you know, hit really, really pretty hard. So, interesting to see where it is right now, John, and uh I'll tell you what, the the the Dow itself is is pretty interesting right
now. And just to see what's really working what's not. And it's uh I'll tell you what is working just about everywhere though, software.
Software is on fire right now. And, you know, tech software, however you want to, you know, describe it, uh having a pretty damn good day again.
Yeah, well, 7% jump out of crude is what they got, Pete. And uh I'm thinking that even though the VIX is moving up, um like you say, it's not moving up as much as it was before. And they have even less opportunity to defend themselves
than they did before. So, uh I I really question the strategy here, but they didn't ask me.
>> [laughter] >> Instead, they just decided, yep, we'll tell them to go.
>> It was a quick move, but it was a a pretty quick move there, like you're just saying John about crude. I mean, that's that was the absolute you're going to see it either go up or down based upon exactly how Iran wants to go with this whole thing. So, yeah, it's back up there. It was just trading 89 for crying out loud, and here we are back into the low 90s. So,
um I think it's a mistake.
>> [laughter] >> I do. I think it's a mistake.
>> Oh, yeah. Well, the VIX peaked popped, but like you said, it didn't move that much. It just moved into the 16s again.
And I remember when this one was more like uh in the uh uh 18 to 24 range anytime they even threatened to break off negotiations. So, to see it just get back into the 16s, I mean, it's just over 16, 16.04 right now, right?
>> Yeah.
Yeah, I mean, it's it's it's actually kind of ludicrous that it's so low, except for one reason, John. I mean, emotion, sure. But you look at the S&P, and you you take a look, and you say to yourself, well, wait a minute, how much is the S&P? It's flat.
>> [laughter] >> It's pretty close to flat. So, you know, the 16s telling us a 1% move, and we're sitting here looking at the S&P that's flat as a pancake, and we're saying, huh, this is sort of interesting. But I think that's what's part of the reason why it's kind of holding back just a little bit right now, John. Interesting to see
where it is. It's been 15.75, it's been 16.35. Here it is, 16. So, uh interesting to see where it is. I think he gives you a green light, though, to to things that you might want to be doing in the market right now.
>> Well, I thought this one was funny, Pete, on the prediction market side, because this is closed. This is how May ended up, but the question posed on the prediction markets was who will Trump insult by May 31st?
>> [laughter] >> And the winner?
TUCKER CARLSON.
>> [laughter] >> TUCKER AND MARJORIE Taylor Greene were the the two big winners if you want to view them as winners.
>> [laughter] >> And then Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister of Great Britain, and Megan Kelly.
And Megan >> As you can see, both [clears throat] Keir Starmer and Megan Kelly were down as far as the possibility of him insulting them.
>> [laughter] >> And they're deciding right now, in review as it says, whether he really did insult Marjorie Taylor Greene and Tucker Carlson, but that's the the the play right now, Pete. Which one of those two he insulted that gets to win this ignominious
award.
>> To win.
>> [laughter] >> TO WIN.
>> EXACTLY. WELL, speaking of winning, how about MGM, Pete?
>> Ooh, yeah.
>> MGM, and we proudly, folks, did have unusual option activity in MGM. And we didn't just have a little, we had a lot. We had April they they started speculating in here, Pete, and they did it again last Friday. They
said, "You know what? I think it's going to I think something's going to happen in there." And whoever made that prediction when the stock was 44 bucks was dead on because it traded through 51 already today, so far today, and could go higher.
>> And you know what, John? I I there are sharks in there. They're not probably feeling too good about being there still. You'd kind of wonder why they wouldn't have pulled out. This has been talked about for a while now. We all also know Barry Diller already has a you know, some positioning going into this whole thing and it makes a lot of sense and he seems to like it a lot.
You know, his people will own 26% of it, John. So, they got a couple of board seats. He sits on one of them. All of that would point to who is going to probably take this over and here we are and I think that the number why would those guys stay short? I for the life of me I don't understand that
side of it, John, but I guess I don't have to. Nice big move by the MGM Resorts and that unusual option activity. It's been on fire. It has been on fire of late.
>> Well, TMHC, Pete, which is Taylor Morrison Homes, apparently going to get bought by your pals over there at Berkshire Hathaway, Pete.
They're going to acquire the home builder in an all-cash deal valued at about 8 and 1/2 billion dollars. That's 8 and 1/2 billion with a B. And these guys are a big home builder and Buffett, Pete, has been a prefab home buyer
and a buyer also of some of the home builders for years, years and years, but this is no longer a Warren Buffett call.
This is the new CEO that decided he was going to push into the same more or less area that Warren has traveled in before, Pete. So, there it is. 8 and 1/2 billion enterprise value. 350 national communities. I mean, this is a big deal.
>> Yeah. Yeah.
24% move, you know, the stock premium there, John.
It like you said, I think this tells us a little bit more about what it looks like in Berkshire Hathaway that it hasn't changed all that much and I think that's probably a very good thing because we all know how good Buffett's has been over all these years and a guy that, you know, was critical of options but trades them and is maybe
the biggest in the world trading them.
So, uh we got to kind of like him about that, right, John? I mean, that's the positioning. That's how you get into a stock without having to to give all the information out of what you're doing.
So, uh smart guy who's been able to be a smart person for a long time, and it looks like this follow-up CEO, I mean, there's nothing else to say other than the fact that uh it's interesting that they went right back to housing. And and you know what?
Given what what's going on, if we see any big positives into the future and we start seeing some of those rates coming down, um this will be looked upon as a very, very good move, I would say. All 8.5 billion of it.
>> Well, um let's hit one uh Pete, one of your favorite guys, because um Marc Benioff, of course, is the CEO over at Salesforce, folks, and he's a friend of Pete's. Pete's been with him at some of the Lyme Foundation events and things like that out in California. And it's
interesting, Pete, that he's kind of been moving the needle more and more away from the crazies on the one side of the Democrat Party. He's definitely more in the middle now, but this isn't about that. This is about Salesforce basically
announcing plans to invest $2 billion in France through 2030, including the launch of a new AI hub in Paris. So, he's really pushing into the education side in a big way, and this is something
that caused the stock to move 4%, 5% at mid-session now, Pete, it's up double digits.
>> Nice.
When a stock like that is up double digits, uh that that's pretty darn impressive. Uh you know, it's a monster company, obviously, and it started off, like you said, John, up about 5%, $2 billion up through 2030.
Um there's just the other side of it, too, John, is they just gave us what their earnings were, and they were absolutely unbelievable.
They crushed it on the earnings. They beat on the revenue up 13%. So, they are doing everything right right now, and one of the things that they're I guess looking forward to doing even more so is this whole innovation of AI, the workforce, and stretching globally. They have a presence, obviously, already, but
I think that's exactly the target that they're going for because they were doing fantastic here in the United States. They're doing really, really well globally, and this is just one more step that they're going to have that much more exposure, and obviously getting over into Europe with this with this move with France. It's unbelievable. I think the guy just
continues to do the right things at the right times, and that's why the stock is moving the way it is.
>> Well, let's wind it up, Pete, with the big the big deal in software stocks because tech software sector, everybody, including, you know, Michael Lewis, seems to want to give these guys crap.
They seem to want to say, "Oh, it's all done. You know, that's as good as it could possibly be." Well, seems they're not really right.
And it's always important to be right, especially when you're betting on something that is in as much demand as these software stocks actually still are. So, it's up about 5 and 1/2% today, Pete. Did we have unusual activity in here? Yes, we
did. Once again, I mean, look at that graphic there, folks, as it jumps from, you know, $93 a share up to 107.
Not in a single session, but that's a big jump. And today, like I say, another 5% to the upside, Pete, and they were buying calls in here. You see the 5500 July 110 calls when the stock was 100.
Well, stock moves up through 104 and even higher today.
>> Well, one of the stocks John that's in this ETF is Palantir that hasn't been doing so well. Haha, like I said, hasn't, but all of the sudden they're starting to do pretty well. They've had some unusual option activity and you know, between them and all the activity that you and I have been seeing John in
Microsoft. I mean, you put all that together, IGV has some legs. So, the the people who I guess feel like, well, this is over.
I think that they're making a big mistake and that's what the options market has been telling us and you know, this this rotation with AI and everything else, the optimism that's there. I I can't say enough how much I think the IGV has plenty of room still to the upside despite the fact that it's making a pretty nice move. I think this
thing really has a lot further to go than meets the eye.
>> And you look at a stock Pete like ServiceNow. It's up almost 11% today.
And it is one of those stocks that is happens to be in the IGV and the company's AI platform apparently in bigger demand than people at first suspected Pete. And for that reason, and I'd watch Palantir, I'm sorry, Palo Alto Networks this week Pete because they
have earnings coming out.
That'll be one more to keep on your watch list, I think.
>> Yeah.
>> All right, let's take a look at the video for today Pete. I know you're going to like this one because it's your one of your favorite players, Mr. Wemby.
It is. It's one of your faves.
>> I do like I like him, but these guys are way in front of their skis John and you and I both know that. But yeah, let's take a little video. He deserves credit.
They've done a great job. They've done a great job.
>> Yep.
What's hilarious, people already think Wemby is better than Michael Jordan and LeBron. I'm an MJ guy, have been my whole life.
>> He just needs to cut out the LeBron part of it.
>> What we're witnessing is not normal.
Wemby is 22 years old and just punched his ticket to the NBA finals. The kid is an alien. Through his first 175 games, this man already has more points than Larry Bird, more rebounds than Charles Barkley, more blocks than Hakeem Olajuwon, more steals than Kobe Bryant, and more three-pointers than Stephen Curry. Think about that. He's the only player in NBA history to average three
blocks and three threes in the same season. That combination literally did not exist before him. His impact on a game is nothing like we've seen before. He's 22. If he wins a ring against the Knicks and stays healthy for the next 10 to 12 [music] years, we're not having a goat debate anymore. It's over. I love MJ. I love LeBron. But, I've never seen
anything like this. Nobody has. Tell me I'm wrong in the comments.
>> Peace.
>> You know what's hilarious?
>> You know what is hilarious is that he basically made the case for why he's wrong, too, >> [laughter] >> because he said, "If" and that's a big if. "If he plays for 10 or 12 years." I mean, just because you're blocking three shots, um, Pete, and uh,
doing all the jams and everything else he does, um, doesn't mean that you've got a single ring. He doesn't. He could win one this year. We'll see.
Uh, the Knicks will have something to say about that. But, uh, you know, this will be interesting to see all the people jumping on the Wemby bandwagon that he's the goat because he ain't the goat yet. So far, zero rings, and that's a big part of being the goat.
>> He's a long way, a long way from being any kind of goat, number one. And by the way, when he went through all those comparisons, I never heard Michael's name mentioned on any of those comparisons, you know? So, yeah, kind of interesting. But, you know, and and I also have to take one less small and more thing about this whole thing. The
fact that he even throws LeBron in the conversation, I mean, are you kidding me?
Uh LeBron or should you have had Kobe?
LeBron or should you have Wilt? LeBron or I mean, you could go through a long list and I know that I'm partial to LeBron.
>> I would check. Yeah, I mean, so many guys that uh go ahead of LeBron into the onto that list, Pete. Way ahead of him.
And all the guys doing is basically playing half the games and uh you know, damaging his uh both reputation and legacy by sticking around when he's clearly done. And now they're saying, "Oh, but if we get him back in Cleveland." What? Like you need a guy
for part-time in Cleveland? I don't think so. I mean, ask the Knicks if that would have helped.
>> Well, and and I'll tell you what, all you got to do is throw on any tape you want with Michael Jordan and you actually see a lot different player. And and to credit Wembanyama, he's a heck of a player.
If, like you said, he can last 10 years uh and the body, we'll find out. But, we all see what he looks like. I mean, he's very, very thin. He's very well put together. Good possibility that there's going to be some sort of energy energy injuries along the way. I mean, I don't know. Uh but anyway, it's kind of funny
to me when we hear this kind of thing, John, and somebody just spouts off about it and it's like, "Oh, okay." Haha.
You're already >> Yeah, hold on. Hold on. Not that fast.
>> [laughter] >> All right. So, the next one, how about we go to this one? NCAA college sports.
You know who's back, John? The Pac-10 is back, baby. [laughter] It's great because they actually officially are the Pac-10. Now, here's the interesting thing and I didn't know a lot of this, so I got to I got to go back and take a look at this, John, but they go back 110 years with the Pac something. They were the Pac-8, they've
been the Pac-10, they've been the Pac-12, and they have the universities and the Pacific Coast colleges and conference, rather. Um but here's some of the group that used to be there. Cal, Stanford, SC, UCLA, Montana, Idaho, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah, Washington, and Oregon. Those were all
different schools that were at some point in time a part of the Pac whatever they were. But now they're the Pac-10 of 2026.
And you and I've talked about this long ago. I think it's pretty classic that they're the basically every team or school is a state. It's Oregon State, Washington State, Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Texas State, and Utah State. That's who they are. They're going to play seven games against one another, and then
they've got four non-conference games.
That's how they're going to finagle this whole thing. But I just think I You know, in some ways I I feel like Oregon State and Washington State ought to give credit to the idea that they have pushed so hard to get this thing going, to figure out what they could do with this conference, cuz they could have scrambled like everybody else, but
um I think it's pretty cool to still have them. Uh and and you know what?
Well, it'll be interesting to see because there are some very, very good football schools there that people probably don't know enough about, and some really talented athletes because there's so many more athletes now that are talented. Um I think this could be pretty cool, and I think there's a possibility that maybe not this year,
probably, but at some point maybe they get somebody into the playoff, and I think that would be PRETTY COOL.
>> PLAYOFF? PLAYOFF?
>> [laughter] >> STILL ONE OF THE great lines of all time. One of the great comebacks.
Well, what about the playoffs, SIR?
PLAYOFFS?
>> [laughter] >> PLAYOFFS?
>> HE was just the best.
Um, yeah.
I'm happy that that they're keeping the the the league, or whatever you want to call it, the conference, together, Pete.
Um, and there are a couple, you know, obviously, like you said, Oregon State, Washington State, the the the schools that were in what was the Pac-12. And then a bunch of interesting additions, including some from the state of Texas,
which is right there at the Pac. In other words, the Pacific. Um, more like the the middle of the country, Mexico, um, but not really Pacific. Uh, but then again, Cal plays out on the East Coast, Pete.
>> Cal and Stanford.
>> Cal and Stanford play on the East Coast, folks. So, go figure that. That makes all the sense in the world, especially in a a world where their student athletes, allegedly, and they've got to fly 5 hours across the country and then 5 hours back, and still to try to stay
competitive in two of the best universities in the United States.
>> Mhm.
>> Really? Okay.
>> [laughter] >> But, yeah, I'm happy, like you said, that at least the the Pacific Coast Conference, however you want to put it, is still around.
>> Yeah.
Yeah, I like it. And and Boise State, John, I'll put that name out there right now. Boise State might get a seat, you know, in the playoffs at some point here, in the not too distant future.
>> Yeah, and that's a damn good football program.
>> Yeah.
>> Um, obviously, ever since they beat Oklahoma, Pete, and put their stamp on it, uh, uh, in that, uh, bowl game. They have been, uh, tough to beat and they've had what? A Heisman Award winner now, as well. The kid that's playing at, uh, UNLV.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
Well, and by the way, folks, Pete and I will be at Freedom Fest out in Las Vegas the 8th through the 11th of July. We'll also be out there at the same time for the Sack Summit with Von Miller, Cam Jordan, Max Crosby and LT, Lawrence
Taylor. So, uh, we'll be bringing you guys some unbelievable content from Vegas, both the Freedom Fest and the Sack Summit. We'll be telling you all about both and if you're around and you'd like to attend, especially the Freedom Fest, um, by all means. And that one will be over at Caesar's, Pete. But,
uh, we look forward to being back with you tomorrow at What time, Pete?
>> 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time, John. We're going to be here ready to rock and roll.
>> See you then, folks.
Transcript from the show's YouTube captions; automatic captions may contain errors. Educational content, not investment advice.