Rebels Edge · Tue, Aug 18, 2026
Is the Consumer Really in Trouble?
Watch on YouTubeSummary
The hosts discuss modest market pressure, subdued volatility, AI-company IPO expectations, and contrasting developments at Baidu and Amylyx Pharmaceuticals. Home Depot and the consumer outlook frame the episode, but the supplied transcript omits most of that discussion; the later portion focuses on sports and college-athlete compensation.
- Crude oil rose about 1% amid Iran ceasefire concerns, while weakness in Korean technology stocks weighed on U.S. semiconductor sentiment.
- The VIX remained near 16, and Nasdaq volatility was described as its lowest since January, suggesting limited market stress despite geopolitical risks.
- Prediction-market odds cited by the hosts strongly favored Anthropic reaching an IPO before OpenAI.
- Baidu missed earnings and revenue expectations, with advertising revenue down 19% year over year; cloud growth and autonomous rides offered brighter spots.
- Amylyx Pharmaceuticals surged following positive Phase 3 results for a treatment addressing a serious complication after weight-loss surgery; the hosts highlighted its balance sheet and possible short covering.
- Home Depot, Target, Walmart, Ross Stores, and TJ Maxx were highlighted during retail earnings week, but the missing transcript section prevents a supported conclusion about consumer health.
- Sports coverage included Shohei Ohtani, college-football rankings and schedules, and rapidly increasing NIL compensation at major programs.
- The hosts promoted the Rebel Investors Club for pre-IPO opportunities and Rebel Con 2026 at Circa on October 20–21.
Full transcript
Welcome back to the Rebels Edge. Pete Nagarian and I will be breaking down for you Home Depot earnings. Is the consumer dead? Is the consumer pausing? Home Depot had some insights into that. We're also going to give you some sports as
well as prediction markets and the VIX on today's Rebels Edge.
[music] >> [music] >> Well, well, well. Welcome back, Pete.
That's Pete Nagarian over there. My finger kind of fading in the uh >> [laughter] >> uh virtual background of the circa sports behind me.
>> That is awesome, >> man.
>> Yeah, it is special, folks. I mean, it's almost worth the trip out there for Rebel Con 2026 just to see what Derek and his brother have built out there, Pete, because it's pretty special. I mean, a threestory sports book with your own PCs set up there in front of you so
you can like be going back and forth and betting on stuff and watching games and having a good time and having them bring you drinks.
>> Not so bad. [laughter] >> Not so bad. Well, let's dive right in with macro, Pete.
>> Yeah, >> macro. Today, I'm going to say uh President Trump has ruled out extending the ceasefire agreement with Iran. So, that uh caused prices of uh crude oil to lift slightly. I won't say explode because I wouldn't call this an
explosion. And uh I would say also Pete that semiconductors and related names are experiencing pressure yet again from Korea because Korean Cosby was down another four or five% today. And when
that happens, it's usually because people are overlevered and they're in all those tech names and that comes around the world and hits us early in the morning and we haven't really recovered in the NASDAQ yet, Pete.
>> Right. And you know what we're what we're looking at with the Dow and the NASDAQ. I mean the combination of those obviously the S&P as well. Um getting hit a little bit and I think you know I think it's a combination of exactly what you just said and specifically with WTI John it's up 1%. That's not a huge jump from where it was. It's 8450. I mean
that's something but um it's the highest level in two weeks you know and people are just looking for numbers and something how to compare it and all this kind of thing and as well as as we are but taking a look at that you know that that has been the theme right I mean I think the more interesting part of this whole thing is and I'll just jump right
into it John is the VIX why is the VIX just holding down here the way that it is given the kind of backdrop that we're talking about right now obviously with the president talking and and what we're seeing happen with the price of oil and everything else, but all of a sudden, you start start to look at and and yes, it's up. It is up. There's no doubt
about it. But it's still in such a tight range. This isn't like a monstrous jump for the VIX, I don't think. I mean, I'm looking at it and it's basically in this area of 1560 to 1610. So, is that terrible? I wouldn't say so. And, you know, it's it's it's interesting to see it. And it's, you know, we've we've seen
it kind of near this 16 level for a while now. And it's, you know, yeah, it's also a little higher. And you know what? It's also been two weeks for this thing to uh to do this. So, it's back up here at 16. We'll see. U we'll see how that affects things. But I don't think that's going to be it. If it moves
around more, yes. But as of right now, it is planted right there, John, in a range that's just tight.
Well, the uh VXN Pete, the volatility metric for the NASDAQ, um that closed yesterday right around 2050, and that's the lowest we've seen since January.
>> And uh so I think it's playing into the same game that we've seen over and over again. Yeah, that heartbeat market unless we break out to the upside in terms of volatility. Uh we're going to keep trending in a pretty tight range and stay on the lower end. Um and of
course it could get disrupted by something in the Gulf or some sort of uh a truce one or the other. And again, it's going to be heartbeat up down up down. All right. Uh Pete, as far as the VIX, you kind of just described it.
Let's hit a prediction market then.
Which >> uh will Open AI or Anthropic IPO first?
And this one is a slam dunk. At least according to the betting wires right now, Pete, it's 89% on the anthropic side. And OpenAI just a 13% chance. So, they're really saying anthropic uh is the one that's going to go first apparently. And I think the
interesting thing about that, John, is how that's completely flipped from give or take a year ago, right? I mean, you know, a year ago, you're looking at this thing and it's open open AI that they're the ones they're they're leading. They were at whatever it was, 70% 75% something like that, 25%
>> for um Anthropic. But man, that that changed basically almost at the early part of the year and then it kind of bounced around a little bit. But yeah, the the divide now is pretty wide. I would say. So, interesting to see how that's playing out. I don't I don't know that that bothers me or anything else,
but uh I think it's I think it's interesting to see how Anthropic has literally made this huge leap over OpenAI in terms of getting themselves out there in public. And I'm not sure what's what's holding them back. I mean, are they are they waiting for the markets in some way? I I guess maybe that's part of it. But um as we were
talking about yesterday, John, you know, when when you get to this time of year and and you start having different types of things that are influencing the market like the elections might be, um the backdrop of that is not very good for the markets actually and we were talking about that yesterday, but we'll we'll see how that all plays out. And uh
Anthropic, I it sure looks like these guys are going to be first.
>> Yeah. And Sam Alman's company, Pete, that's Open AI, of course, folks. Sam Alman's company had that high-profile lawsuit with uh Elon Musk. Elon did not prevail in that one, but he says he's not done. Um, it was a nonprofit. And
then Sam decided, I'm going to turn this bad boy into a forprofit because I could make billions of dollars off of this.
and Elon said, "Well, I didn't give up my shares into a nonprofit to have you do that." So, that's me paraphrasing what the lawsuit was about, folks. Um, but clearly that has hurt, um, Open AI, uh, and it's worked to the benefit of anthropic.
>> All right, Pete. Um, speaking of anthropic and open AI and companies that uh uh are pre-IPO, if you'd like to be part of some of that, check out the Rebel Investors Club. By the way, folks, you can just go on over to marketrebellion.com
and you can see about it and perhaps join it. thousands of people have and it's a wonderful opportunity to get in on uh pre-market IPO, you know, before stocks come IPO, depending if you want to be in an SPV, special purpose vehicle or if you'd like to be uh directly on
the cap table. Most of that depends on how much money you're putting down.
That's not on us, but we'll try to hook you up with the best that we've got, folks. and everything from crowdfunds to what Pete and John are investing in and you get daily updates. It's really pretty cool. We'll show you more of that uh next week maybe what the uh updates look like daily because Stephen Fox and
Doug have done a great job putting that together for us, Pete.
>> All right. Um I also wanted to tell you about CIRCA because behind me that is indeed the Circa sports book and we're doing our big event out there folks. Um, and if you uh would like to join us October 20th and 21st, we've got a great lineup of folks. Um, this is not a boot
camp. This is going to be hundreds of folks enjoying speeches on uh everything from agentic AI, open AI, um quantum computing, um which are the best opportunities in the markets and so forth in the crypto market, in the
futures market, in the options market, in broadly the stock market. I mean, all of that out there the 20th and 21st of October at Circa, CIRCA. Check it out.
Um, I know you're going to see it and just shake your head and go, "Where's this casino been?" You know, because you've probably been paying higher prices and not getting as much enjoyment as, you know, slots of fun and [laughter] all that stuff. But it is a
great casino, folks. We're really proud to be working with those Stevens brothers. Yeah. To bring >> our uh guidance to a whole bunch of investors on a wide variety of topics and I can't encourage you enough to uh check it out. So, with that said, Pete,
let's dive into stocks on the day. Yeah, >> some of the stocks are moving pretty good like by do for instance. I mean, this is an internet stock, folks. Um, but they more or less copied some of what some of what Amazon does because they do have a cloud side of their business. They do have an internet and
more or less retail side of their business, but you know what? Uh, they missed on both uh earnings per share and sales, Pete. And the only bright spot really was their cloud business.
Everything else was really something that was not spectacular. And that's why they hit the stock down about 9%. Stock was 162 in January, Pete. It traded through 94 today. So that's not quite cutting it in half, but that ain't good.
>> Yeah, the advertising business stinks.
It's down 19% year-over-year. John, you look, you know, we talk about all these great earnings, right? And and you know I maybe I pound the tables almost too hard but I'm talking about American companies when I say that because I have seen a lot of these companies from outside of the Americas and it's uh it's a little bit different and these guys
are a great example of that when you take a look at the the miss that they just had on their earnings. 722 is what they put up this quarter and 954 was what we were looking for. So not good there. The revenue miss also something re really very negative. The only positive thing that I can possibly pull out of there, John, and I was looking
very very hard, is they've got 10 million fully driverless rides um in 2025 through this Apollo Go Fleet thing that they've got. So, autonomous vehicles, in other words, the technology that they got is pretty strong. So, that's the one thing. But everything else that I looked at, there's a good
reason this stock is down 11% even though it's coming down from as high as you were just talking about. It makes sense. They are they are struggling right now. And they've got something with the cloud, but it's just not enough right now. And that is a huge miss that they got on those earnings.
>> Yeah, it was not good. And uh um would I buy it? Uh I would let it shake out a little more, folks, because like I said, 162 all the way down through 94. Um they're going to have to show people something. And uh uh apparently they
have not done anything except on the cloud infrastructure revenue. That is great, but they've got a bunch of other businesses that are struggling pretty hard.
>> All right, Pete, what about MLX Pharmaceuticals? This one explodes through the old high. Um and when I say explodes through it, I mean since January, Pete, the stock has tripled. It was 11 in January. Um, right now the
stock is trading 3209.
Um, 32.82 is the new 52- week high that it just hit, which is that close to a triple on the year. And my gosh, these guys, I I can't say enough nice things about them. I mean, basically, they've
got this rare but a serious complication after weight loss surgery. Um, and the treatment for it is called lucidity. And apparently people who were getting this did much better, Pete. And that's a very positive thing because quite frankly, a
lot of people are getting weight loss surgery because of GLP1s and things like that. And if you uh want to get your uh whether it's you're getting some of the surgeries to get rid of that skin or whether you actually went in and didn't do the GLPS but instead did the stapling
or whatever else they do to your intestines to shorten them up. Um there can be some really bad uh secondaries about that and this one addresses those.
>> Yeah, it's a remarkable reduction they've got with this thing, John. and the rate um with the levels of two and three. They talk about hyperg glycemic and all the rest of that thing. There's a there's a lot of different things that that are going on. They they put up some great numbers. They have a strong balance sheet. Their shorts are pretty
high which means you know what there's some squeezing going on today as our Jeff Garbaz would say here at market rebellion. It's they got shorts of about 12 to 15%. nothing major but pretty good size I would say which is exactly why with the results that they got and they're in phase three um and they passed through this thing and did an
amazing job that's why this stock is up 40 50 55% whatever it's been because it has really spiked today um they've got this positive top line u very very impressive what they've been able to do I um I look at this they got a what I like is this they do have a strong balance sheet on top of everything else
Because sometimes those balance sheets can be very very difficult for some of these companies as they're getting further and further along and all they are is burning cash, burning cash. Well, theirs is actually looking pretty solid still. And I think that's really important. And this is a stock that, you know what, that's not that far away from launching this thing out there to get
some money, you know, flow back into the company. And that's that's something that I think that that could be the next catalyst for this um you know it'll take some time but it'll be a monstrous catalyst when that time comes I think.
So they did everything uh they they they did everything and completed everything that they would have wanted to do and it's just an amazing u I I guess almost discovery that they were able to put up.
This is this is amazing. I mean the numbers just they speak for themselves.
55% better than what they were seeing when they were looking at the placebo.
I'd say that's pretty solid.
>> Yeah, absolutely, Pete. And it's uh um like I said, they have uh an investigational GLP-1 receptor that they're testing with here. Um a lot of people when they have these gastric bypass uh surgeries and things like that, they, you know, that's that's uh
pretty desperate um when you're getting to a gastric bypass situation. In other words, nothing had worked for you in terms of losing the weight. So they shorten up how much you can actually break down the food that you take in and in some cases of course uh it people
have bad side effects and uh uh I think this is a pretty important thing that these guys have addressed that. All right. Well yesterday we began the week Pete with uh HD Home Depot and we said we got Home Depot, we got Target, we got Walmart coming our way this week and you
mentioned I think Ross Stores and TJ Maxx. I mean, it's a retail week, Pete.
Yep. So, when you look at how Home Depot did, and Home Depot counts most of their earnings, folks, based on how Pete Nagarian does and how many bags of mulch Pete Nagarian buys when [laughter] he orders them to be delivered out to his
palatial estate. And uh overall, apparently Pete ordered enough that Home Depot said it was a good quarter. Right, Pete?
>> Yeah, the quarter was great. They reaffir affirmed the guidance. You know, revenue was up nearly 6% on this thing, John, year-over-year. 4748 billion dollars. I mean, >> yeah, I would say Home Depot did a very, very nice job. The spring uh came and is gone now, but obviously, you know, th those of us like myself, you know, that
do a lot of crazy stuff on their own.
Yeah, there was a lot of trips. I don't I don't have it delivered, John. I deliver it myself. [laughter] >> Oh, I thought you had those pallets delivered. No, I put those >> I know you spread it yourself. Yeah, but I thought you were uh out outside of the uh that you bought so much you couldn't fit it in your pickup anymore.
>> Well, I I make quite a few trips. But in any case, and it looks good still, by the way. It looks fantastic. And it helps out, especially when you've got droughts going on and all that kind of stuff. But yeah, you look at everything, John. The comp sales are fantastic. The gross profits were fantastic. The gross margins were fantastic. The cash flow
was great. 11.42 42 billion. So, um I didn't find anything negative in it. I'm a little surprised that maybe they didn't get a little more of a lift, John. Um I know that people are probably still cautious. Are are people going to continue to be, you know, uh buying things or whatever? Or are they going to
be cutting back? Well, at the beginning of this spring, I would say it's pretty clear to me that they were going in there and they were doing everything that people do. um you know when it comes be springtime and they're going to be doing anything in their yard or their garden or whatever it might be and and I think that uh it's going to be something that you know it's going to be tough to figure out. I mean especially if oil
prices keep going up from from where they are right now then maybe it is going to be a little bit of a cut back.
But we did have a a magnificent drop from over a hundred for WTI all the way back you know down to the levels where we've been recently or whatever. So, some things are a little bit better than they were. Um, I I think that Home Depot just is being a little bit cautious because the numbers they put up were
outstanding.
>> Yep. Well, uh, let's talk about one whose earnings weren't outstanding. Pete CLA KL A. So, this is a UKbased company.
They're, uh, they purport, Pete, to be an AI powered global payments network.
And well, yeah, that is what they are.
But uh apparently uh the fact that their CFO, their chief financial officer and their CMO, chief marketing officer um have said, "Hey, you know what? We're retiring in early 2027." And a lot of people got a little nervous
about that, Pete, because when you are what CLA is and when you're in a very crowded space because they're not the only ones that do what they do. KL, you know, there are other companies and I think our friend Pete Bin Talkington
brought this up. Uh, not about CLA necessarily, but um, I think it was that, you know, some of these buy now pay later type of companies. Why couldn't somebody else just step in there and do the same thing? Um there are a bunch of companies that do this
and I imagine it's just based on um both advertising and fees that cause people to migrate towards one or the other.
Your chief marketing officer would have a lot to do with that. And if that is the person that brought you to a somewhat lofty level and a great valuation, you know, when I'm looking here, Pete, it's a almost a $6 billion enterprise right now. Um, but here it is
trading not too far off the 52- week lows and looking like it's heading lower still.
>> Yeah. Down whatever it is, 20 some odd percent, whatever that number is right now. I know this thing's been shifting around, but mostly shifting going down.
[laughter] And to your point, John, what I think is interesting is they thought that by by doing the this the way they're doing that it would not have the same kind of impact as what we're seeing. And unfortunately, they misread this because they were like, you know, rather than saying, yeah, the CFO is leaving, you
know, in September. Well, they didn't say that. They actually said early 2027.
So they're giving people that runway for this to be looked at as, hey, this isn't an awful thing. These guys aren't leaving for any reason other than, you know what, they want to retire probably.
So you've got the CMO, as you pointed out, the CFO as well. Um, and I think the the feeling was going to be that this would kind of mute some of the selling. Well, it didn't do that at all and it's a bit unfortunate, but it'll be interesting to see how they recover from this, if they recover from this as this
process goes on, because uh you know, they were doing okay, but that drop uh certainly is pretty significant, I would say. And um that's the only thing out there that's telling us uh that that these guys are are stumbling along in terms of, you know, what what's going on. And I think that the reality is there will probably be some people that
are going to look at this and say, you know what, I think this is time to finally buy it because now they're going to get the opportunity to get somebody else into some of those positions and they actually have this runway to be able to do that. So, I kind of think that that might be able to at least recover some of these losses that we're seeing today.
Well, um, uh, one of the guys on our wealth team, Pete, put me in one of their competitors, um, which is Sle Ezle E. And I think you're in there as well.
Um, that's a a Minneapolis-based company, folks. Pete always loves those.
And, uh, um, they are killing it. Um, so they're down in sympathy. They're down 3% today. Not nearly as much as CLA is down, but when you look at uh these buy now pay laterers, fintech side, um man,
>> I I don't know why Pete uh people would say other than, you know, the marketing and the fees. What's the difference?
>> You know, there are so many of them now.
And SLE, like I say, is one that I'm proud to be part of. And I didn't pick it, but one of our wealth managers did.
But there's affirm which is out there as well. But Affirm and Clar are probably the two biggest. But I guarantee you Sel Pete is right there nipping at their heels. And that one is uh S E ZL. Full disclosure I own it. So I'm not making a recommendation. I'm just saying I own
it.
>> Yep. Yep. Absolutely.
>> Well, let's take a look at a little uh show Atani Peter.
>> This guy. This guy. [laughter] >> Yeah. This guy, >> he is special.
>> Special as in, you know, the ERA, Pete, when he pitches now that he's back to pitching. He just was hitting last year because of from surgery, but now he's hitting and pitching. And there's only one guy in the majors that has more home
runs than that pitcher, [laughter] and happens to be Aaron Judge. Let's give this a little look and listen. He is a unicorn.
>> We might be watching the greatest [laughter] of all time in his prime right now. Show Otani just lowered his season RA to 0.74 and raised his batting average to 301 on the year. Since 2021, he has 243 homers.
Only Aaron Judge has more. [laughter] He has 40 triples. Only Corbin Carroll has more. And he has a 2.60 6 RA, which is the lowest in all of Major League Baseball. It's unreal.
>> Through 10 starts, he has the third lowest ERA in baseball history. Maybe you're new to baseball. Maybe you're not the most diehard fan in the world, and all of that is okay. But what I want every single person to know is that we are watching right now the greatest
baseball player of all time. And he's in his prime. and he's doing things that have never ever been done before and will never be done again. And I just hope that everybody appreciates what we are seeing right now. This is truly unbelievable. And Show Otani without a doubt is the greatest baseball player of all time. I need every
>> Yeah.
>> Couldn't agree more.
>> Pretty bold statement, right?
>> Yeah. But couldn't agree more, John. I mean, you know, after you and I have been on this now since we practically started doing the Rebels Edge, >> and we've been talking about this guy and we started with more of a, you know what, this guy's pretty damn special.
He's really, really good and he can pitch and he can hit and he can run and he's getting paid pretty well, but he's going to get a huge amount of money.
Well, he got that huge amount of money.
That's that's for sure. I mean, it's just crazy. Um, but this is a guy that we also talked about, hey, if if this guy's anywhere near you, if you're in Chicago and this guy comes in to play the Socks or the Cubs or whatever or Minnesota, he come to the Twins, you got
to go watch the guy. I mean, it that's what I I just keep, you know, and you and I both have been, you know, hitting that hard and hard and hard. And yeah, he did have an injury for a little while. Well, he looks like he's come back pretty good. And why is that?
because he's athletic as hell. He's a big son of a bee. And you know, when you look at him, you don't really realize he's big. I mean, he's not Aaron Judge big, but he's a big son of a gun, John.
And throws the hell out of his pitches are unbelievable. And what he hits and when he hits the ball, ball doesn't just go over the the outfield, it goes way into the second deck half the time. I mean, this guy's unbelievable.
>> Yeah. And Pete, I'll throw a little intrigue into it. So last week, Walters, Mark Walters, the owner of one of the owners of the uh LA Lakers. Now, he didn't own it all. We knew that. We knew that Magic was in there and Jeanie Bus,
you know, the daughter of uh Dr. Bus, uh who was the guy that bought it and he split it between her and her siblings.
Um and most of that's been purchased.
Um, but she is now saying number one, they can't sell unless I say so to her siblings and they own I think 17% Pete.
So I'll just throw that out there.
>> Second thing, the same guy Walters from uh uh Mark Walter from uh Guggenheim.
>> He's got some investigations going on.
I'm not saying criminal. I'm just saying investigations because he's got an awful lot of money on loan.
>> Um, and some people are getting worried that that 20 billion that he owes, um, it might be a little difficult for him to make all the payments he's got to make.
>> And [clears throat] he also owns the LA Dodgers.
>> I'll just point out that there could be some intrigue here, Pete. And I'm not saying judge that uh show is not going to get paid. He's going to get his $700 million.
Um but there is some palace intrigue going on that we'll have to keep an eye on.
>> All right. So what else do you got Pete that we got to pay attention to on sports?
>> I think it's kind of fun because you know we're really getting very close to the college football season. Obviously NFL football season kicking it all off, right? I mean, we're getting deeper into August and towards the end of August, things do start to change really rapidly. So, I thought it would be fun to see who's ranked where. They just started that, right? I mean, so they've
had all the off season, everything, all the changes, all the the players going through all these things and everything else. Do you know who's sitting at the very top, John, right now in this whole thing? We've got two Big 10 schools.
We've got Ohio State and we got Oregon sitting at the very top. Which is interesting because I think most of the world would say, well, it's got to be the SEC because they all think that the SEC is the greatest. By the way, uh Big 10 has been winning just about every national title that since they started.
So, it's kind of interesting to see that, you know, there's still this push back on the Big 10 sometimes. And and I say that as a proud Big 10 guy. So, you know, maybe maybe it's a little bit of a stretch on my part. That being said, John, I'm sitting there looking at it and I Here's what makes it a little tougher for Ohio State, though. So, here
they are sitting there. They've got four games against ranked teams within their, you know, as as we go through this whole thing. Texas is one of them. They got to go to Texas in Austin. They've got to play them there. They got to play at Iowa who's number 22. They got to play at Indiana who's number six. They got to
play at USC, who's number 14. So, when they play Oregon, that's actually going to be a home game. When they play Michigan, that's going to be a home game. But that's that's what their their their roster, or not their roster, that's where their um season looks like it's going to be, right? And it is going
to be that way. But Oregon, on the other hand, only has two of those, which is not that big. They've only got two games where they're on the road against ranked teams. Number four, uh USC or number 14 USC is one of them. And then at Ohio State is the other one. So it kind of
makes you feel like given the, you know, the murderers row sort of thing that Ohio State's got. It shows me that Oregon might have the better, you know, lineup in terms of how they've got to navigate this season because most of their most difficult games are going to be played at home. So it makes that a
little bit more interesting, I think, at where they might be towards the very end of the year. Oregon's got the quarterback. Oregon grabbed a kid from Minnesota who's one of the best safeties in the game. Uh they've got all sorts of different players. A matter of fact, they've got two really good quarterbacks. So, it's going to be interesting to see how good Oregon is.
And uh and the in the second part of this whole thing, I'll tell you some of the money that's going flowing with these guys as well. But what do you think of this, John? Do you I mean, the Big 10 looks pretty damn dominant, don't they?
>> They do, Pete, but I disagree with the rankings. Um I uh I'm gonna give you mine and I want you to give me yours.
Just your top five. Sure.
>> But I'll tell you mine first because we didn't discuss this ahead of time.
>> Yeah.
>> Um I think Miami being that far down the list is dead wrong. That team is loaded.
So as much as I agree with you about Oregon, Pete, I am Ohio State, Miami, Oregon, Georgia, Notre Dame. That's my top five.
>> Yeah. Are you going with the uh uh with the NCAA or are you uh departing from some of that early uh coaching uh picks?
>> I think there's some tweaking going on too, John. And I I don't disagree with you. As a matter of fact, I was looking at that and when I saw Miami down there at seven, it's not that far off, but I'll tell you what, with the talent that they've got, with the quarterback that they went out and hunted out and got and everything that goes with that, and we're going to talk about this NIO money
in a second, but I don't know how Miami is not somewhere in the top five. I don't know where they belong, but they need to be in the top five. And I, you know, so I find that pretty interesting.
I think Indiana's probably in the right spot. I also and I and I've said this to you before too. I put Oklahoma somewhere up in that top five. Now now the problem is >> All right. So where who do you bounce out if you've got you have Ohio State number one?
>> Um I don't like Ohio State because of that the schedule that they've got. I I think it makes it really really tough on some of those. I mean away game away game away game you know against really good competition. There is something to that and I think Ohio State's great. I do. I think they might be if not the
best team, very close, but I'm talking more about who do they have to play because some of these guys kind of can ride through this whole thing, right?
And others uh really can't. So, I think most of it's right, but I think that um I'd bounce maybe Georgia down a little bit and I would put Oklahoma probably up a little higher so that Oklahoma would probably be in my my top five, I would say. Um, it's hard for me to to pull a Texas out of there. I don't know enough
about I I've seen them, but I don't know enough about Notre Dame. I think Notre Dame's damn good. I love the coach. I think he does a magnificent job. He's a great recruiter. He's a great guy. Um, but should they be in the top five Notre Dame? I don't I don't know about that either. I mean, depending on maybe some of their away games and so forth, which
I hadn't looked at, but um they they might stumble somewhere along the way, too. Maybe once, maybe twice. Who knows?
So, I think it's pretty interesting.
>> If you have if you don't have Notre Dame there, do you put Texas there or Indiana?
>> Probably Texas A&M.
>> Probably Texas A&M. I I like Indiana, John. I think he's a magnificent coach.
I don't know that they can do that two years in a row. I mean, and and I don't know that the quarterback is extremely good that that he got. He really is from from I believe it was SMU or whatever, but or TCU. Um, but I just don't know that I just don't feel very comfortable
that that is going to be the same thing as last year. They had some close ones last year, too. They were great. They were the deserved number one team. They won the national title and all that, I think, is exactly right. But I think also that um it's tough to do that twice, right? It's tough to go back to
back and you almost have to be undefeated. So, that could be a little bit of a stretch. But here, I got this one for you, John.
>> All right.
>> Top five NFL schools or NIL schools.
We've got Texas, 47 million NIL money.
You've got Miami, 44 million. You've got Oregon, 43 million. LSU, 42 million.
Ohio State 42 million. I mean, we're already there. Everybody keeps talking about, well, you know, it's going to, you know, it's going to go nothing but higher. It's going to get really crazy.
It's already crazy. I mean, I don't know what these guys are talking about. And and I pulled out each school, John, who was their highest paid guy. Arch Manning, $6.8 million is what Arch Manning allegedly. Can you I mean, I
don't know. That's just crazy. Um Darien Mensah at at Miami, six and a half million. You got Dante Moore, the kid at Oregon, one of two quarterbacks getting a lot of money. He's get five million.
Sam Levit, who's a transfer to LSU from Arizona State, um is making a pretty p penny as well. Uh Jeremiah Smith is the only guy who's not a quarterback who's sitting there with in this group of schools. It's Ohio State. He's got five million. He's their number one. And they're having to spread it out now.
They got a quarterback who's pretty damn good who's probably getting paid something close to five. But it and I don't know how accurate some of those numbers are, if they're perfect or not, John, because there is a lot of play in there [laughter] because I don't know how they have to distribute that out there exactly, but you know, some somebody out there's
checking them, but um just interesting.
And that Jeremiah Smith is just another one of those Ohio State receivers who's going to go into the NFL and be magnificent like all of them. I mean, it's just amazing. But what do you think about all this money, man? I mean, is there ever a time where we see a cap? Is there ever [laughter] >> Well, you know, it's uh it's it's moving
up dramatically every year, Pete. Yeah.
>> If you compared this to like three years ago, nobody like LSU might be close to 50 million this year, like you said, with Sam Levit and Jordan Seatan, their offensive tackle to protect Sam Levit.
Um, uh, you've got Miami at 40 plus million, Ohio State 40 plus million, Oregon and Phil Knight, thank you very much. His money 40 plus million, Texas, God knows probably Tommy Norris and Land
Man 40 plus million. Um, although they always feature TCU on the Land Man show just for those of you who really watch.
Um, I would say Pete that uh I'll be shocked if by 20 uh 2030 we're not over a 100red million at each of these uh top schools. And again, without uh something
to keep it a little fairer, um who are you going to play? It's the same thing as baseball if you don't share a little bit. And you know, in in the way it's distributed right now, you can't really share because these are your, you know, big alumni, the big contributors from the area of where the
school is usually.
>> And Texas A&M, I'm surprised they're not on this list, Pete, because that guy has thrown uh close to 40 mil a year at that team. M >> so um pretty soon you you've exhausted the talent and the talent has just you
know all been sucked into these you know top five top 10 NIL payers and that's as it should be as long as it is this way that's as it should be. Sam Levit should be getting paid the most that he can possibly get. Yeah. Um you know Mensah
>> same deal. Um Ohio State Jeremiah Smith, he's taking a pay cut when he comes out.
Um you know, it'll be even worse than uh the Pony Express Pete at SMU when they had to take their pay cut [laughter] when they came out because you know they did.
>> And maybe some of those >> maybe some of those Oklahoma teams that I had to play against too, John, [laughter] those guys with the boss and everything, I'm like, did anyone else see the parking lot out there where the players parked? [laughter] Well, and you haven't seen any I know
you've seen this, Pete, but folks, you haven't seen anything until you've seen the Texas parking lot because I think the local Lamborghini dealer, Pete, I don't know that they give the kids these cars. I think they let them have them for the season or whatever, maybe for
the year. But, um, they're all Lambos.
Um, and it's Lambo City. And then, you know, if you're some poor linebacker like Pete, all you get is some, you know, $70,000 jacked up Ford F350, you know, with a whole bunch of lights on top and everything else. That's what they That's how Texas rolls.
>> Or even worse, a guy like me might be getting like little tickets to Burger King or something like that. Here you go. Here's a couple of [laughter] >> There you go. Okay. Don't Don't spend them all in one place.
>> Don't do that.
spread it around.
>> Well, we appreciate all of you joining us, folks. Remember what you're seeing behind me, the circus sports book, it's fabulous. Um, and uh we have the full support of Derek Stevens and his brother Greg to make this um an absolutely
stellar experience. So, if you want to come and enjoy some lectures from a whole bunch of really successful people, including the Stevens Brothers, by all means, uh, go to that site that Jared's
putting up for you. Come on, sign up.
It's 200 uh I think. Yeah, I think it's $200 off until September 10th, Pete.
Yeah. um for the general admission ticket um which falls from $6.95 down to $4.95. Who can't do that? And then you can if you want to, you stay wherever you want, folks. But they are offering us a great deal in the casino to stay at their hotel and I think it's 107 bucks a
night or something like that, Pete.
>> I mean, again, it's going to be a fabulous time. Check it out. Rebel Con 2026 and Pete and I will be back tomorrow to give you more information about Rebel Con and the Rebel Investors Club. Right, Pete? What time is that?
>> See you at 1 PM Eastern time, John. It's going to be another good one. Giddy up.
>> See you then. Bang.
Heat. Heat. N.
>> [music]
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