Rebels Edge · Wed, May 6, 2026
Market EXPLODES +600… Oil CRASHING?! AI Stocks Go PARABOLIC (AMD, SMCI, FLEX)
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The hosts attribute a roughly 600-point market rally to stronger private-sector employment, solid corporate earnings, and falling crude oil prices amid potential peace-deal developments. They highlight AI-related results and stock gains at Flex, Super Micro Computer, and AMD, alongside Compass's real estate outlook, before closing with sports discussion.
- The hosts say ADP reported the strongest private-sector job growth in 15 months, exceeding expectations.
- Crude oil fell roughly 7–10% amid peace-deal developments; Pete expects WTI to reach $85 before $105.
- They describe earnings as broadly strong and expect the VIX could finish the session in the 16s.
- Flex rose roughly 30–33% following earnings and revenue beats, strong guidance, and plans to spin out its power, cloud, and AI data-center infrastructure business.
- Super Micro Computer gained roughly 15–18% on quarterly results and guidance, despite a slightly reduced full-year revenue outlook.
- AMD reported $1.37 in quarterly earnings per share, 38% revenue growth, and 57% data-center revenue growth; the hosts also reviewed an earlier bullish call-options trade.
- Compass gained roughly 26–30%, with the hosts highlighting cost synergies, optimistic guidance, and potential benefits from lower interest rates.
- The hosts disclosed that they are paid advisors to Re-Alloy while discussing its domestic rare-earth refining role and a Nasdaq closing-bell appearance.
Full transcript
Welcome back to The Rebel's Edge. Pete and I are going to break down for you exactly why the market's up 600 points at mid-session, as well as taking a look at crude oil, which may or may not be the only catalyst. That and more on
today's Rebel's Edge.
>> [music] [music] >> You can only imagine how popular these are hats are, Pete, on the four-letter networks.
>> [laughter] >> Oh, jeez.
Well, we're off. We're off.
We're off. We're off, indeed. We're off.
>> [laughter] >> Um I'm still here in New York. Uh we're going to be ringing the closing bell today, Pete, for A L O Y. Um this is a company that basically um takes rare earths, and when you get rare earth elements and so forth, folks,
um you need to uh clean them and prepare them for use in batteries, missiles, all kinds of things that they're used for. I mean, it's pretty high-tech stuff. Um but most of them are uh refined over in China. Uh and uh obviously
China on your supply chain, especially if they do like I think close to 90% of global supply, Pete, that's a non-starter with the president.
He wants it done here, at least a significant amount of it. Are we going to take all 90% away from them? No. But we need to have some homegrown refining and so forth, and that's what A L O Y does, Pete. And Re-Alloy is uh a company
that we are uh paid advisors to, and so I'm letting you guys know that. I'm also letting you know 4:00 Eastern time today, we're going to be ringing that closing bell.
>> [laughter] >> Just like Pete did on the C note.
Yeah, that damn thing.
>> [laughter] >> That was I think somebody messed with it, Pete, cuz they told him to go back and forth and it turned out it was sideways.
>> [laughter] >> I've never seen a bell quite like that before.
>> Yeah, that was unique. That was definitely >> kind of on a thing hanging there and the the hammer will swing either way, but not that one.
>> [laughter] >> But we will be ringing that closing bell on the Nasdaq and looking forward to it with alloy. So, Pete, shall we dive into macro today? Let's do it. Let's do it.
We got a lot on.
I'm going to say the ADP employment report and as Pete reminded me, this is private employers, folks. So, these aren't government checks. These are checks that ADP sends out on behalf of a ton of private businesses across the country. So, it could be anything from,
for instance, JP Morgan to a little five shop group of people and they, ADP, processes those checks. So, if they know how many new people are added and how many people were laid off or taken off the rolls, it's pretty accurate. Well, guess what?
They surpassed expectations with the numbers today. Highest job growth in 15 months. So, put that in your pipe and smoke it all you folks that are out there trying to scare us about, "Oh, recession, this and that." Really? With the highest
uh jobs posted in 15 months? I don't think so. I don't think so, either. I think today, John, what what really um is the biggest macro thing of this of this day has got to be what's going on with this peace deal and all the the goings-on there because of what it's affecting everything, right? I mean, we look over
at something like crude oil and it's, you know, down 10 7 to 10%. Um, it got hit right away. I mean, it just got banged at the downside. Sitting right around 7% to the downside right now. The other thing, too, John, is I I just want to harp on this one more time. Earnings continue to crush and we'll see some good examples of that
when we get into some of the stocks we're going to talk about. But, I'll tell you what, John, so far 80 85% beats um, have been coming in for this earning season. So, it's uh it's strong again and uh I think it's something that a lot of the folks that are If they're on the bearish side, they're not understanding
what the markets are really doing right now. Yeah, they're not. And, you know what else they're wrong about, Pete?
Some people, not not everybody, but some people, and I was talking about this with Charles Payne yesterday over on Fox Biz. Um, people that said the AI boom is over are wrong, and we've got a big stock that's part of that boom that we're going to cover in just a minute. But, uh if
you're in optical networking, Pete, photonics and so forth, if you are somebody like GLW or a number of the firms that we talk about very actively, especially for unusual activity, well, they're doing just fine. Did they
correct in March? Yeah, they did. And was it scary? I guess so, but Pete and I mainly trade options, folks. Um, and if you're trading options and you're buying a $4 option and it goes to two, it ain't fun, and maybe you should cut your loss at that point, but it's not a lot easier
to hold a $4 option or a $2 option than it is an $800 stock. Yeah. So, keep that in mind. That's why we always say it's not an option to just trade stocks. All right, what do we got for VIX today, Pete? You know, John, in the early hours before we got to the opening, we were in
the very low 16s. I think it was like 1618, something like that. Um, yeah, we did pop back up a little bit. We got up towards, you know, as you can see right there, you we we popped up back up a little bit above 17, but I'll tell you what, I think by the end of the day it's going to be very, very interesting, John, because obviously we've got the
weekend in front of us. Now, right now it's still not even quite midday, getting close to midday, but it will be interesting to see, do we actually close in this upper 16s? And I think that the odds for me are yeah, I think we got a hell of a good chance for that to see that happen, which if you said that a week ago or 2 weeks ago, you probably
would have had people looking at you like you had four heads, but the reality is this, we're probably going to be in the 16s tonight.
Well, let's take a look, Pete, at prediction exchanges that feed right into this, because Pete talked about crude oil, folks, and look at this one and how much it has flipped. Because if you saw us posting it last week, you know, there
were probably 60, 70% bets uh it would be above 110 or above 115 for WTI West Texas Intermediate. Look at where it is now. I mean, the bets are strong to the downside, Pete. That's where they're betting on, and as the
president has laid out, if they don't take his one-page memorandum here, they're going to catch holy hell. Um, he's not talking yet about exterminating a civilization again, Pete. The last time he did, he spoke about exterminating a
civilization of bears.
Because the bears are the ones that got cooked on that one, and they're getting cooked again today. Yeah, it's it's pretty interesting these these uh markets that we look at every once in a while or I guess every day. They're interesting, aren't they? I mean, just to see what some of what some of the numbers really look like and it's it's
going to be something that I think if I would if it for me, I think that we could see 85 before we see 105 and I think that's kind of a fair way to do it just based upon where it is today.
So, it'll be a pretty interesting to see how this this plays out, John, but you know what? all you've got to do if you can get that oil number to come down, if you can get that price for crude to come down, it gives the markets that big of a lift because they we all understand how much of a headache that is from the gas station to the the guys
in the you know, the airplanes, the guys on the diesel with the big trucks and everything else. I mean, that does affect quite a bit. So, I I think I'm on the right side of this one, but I'll say it's going to be an 85 before 105.
All right. Well, let's talk about Flextronics, Peter. Flex, um because when we look at Flex Limited as it's called now, Pete, what do they do? Well, end-to-end manufacturing and they help people with manufacturing.
A lot of people probably weren't as aware, Pete, that they also did communications and cloud and enterprise and all that. Well, guess what? The CEO says, "You know what? We're going to sell that. We're going to focus on this other stuff." And the stock jumped about 30% on that news, Pete. Um they also
reported earnings of 93 cents a share, revenue 7.4 billion, both ahead of expectations.
Uh and that's why this stock is humping higher today.
>> Yeah.
Absolutely. I mean, and you gave up what the the earnings were. I'll tell you what, how about the free cash flow at 221 million, John? That's not so bad.
Their guidance was very good. They gave great guidance both for the quarterly as well as the full year, um spinning off this thing I think does create something even bigger. Uh you know, they had they were focused on power the AI, again the the infrastructure and all the rest of it,
but I think that the reality is that uh this is a really incredible the what they were able to produce this past quarter and what they're talking about for the next quarter and the next year, 2027. Very, very interesting. There was a good reason why this stock is up 33%
today or wherever it is right now.
Well, and power cloud AI data center infrastructure, they're going to be spinning that out. So, uh keep your eyes on that, folks, because that could be a very interesting pure play um whereas right now as part of Flex, it's not a pure play because they do so many other
things. But, spinning that out and letting people play it as a pure play, I think is actually very smart. I think the CEO's doing something that actually benefits shareholders a lot, Pete. And obviously, 30% today, they're probably giving her a little bit of this right now.
All right. How about Super Micro Computer? Now, uh we know that they had problems. They had a couple people couple bad eggs, let's say. Again, alleged. I don't know that they've actually taken the charges yet, but they were doing some untoward things
at SMCI. But, one of the things they're doing is uh as a company doing much better than expected with their Q3 results, Pete, and their guidance also much better than expectations. So, the stock popped 17 or 18%. It's holding
mine to 15% of that, which is pretty strong performance in the first couple hours of the day. Yeah, you know, they talked about the strong demand they've got for those data centers, John, and the AI infrastructure and all of that just uh like we were talking about before. And like I said, this is still something that is very red hot and
and it's amazing what we're seeing going on there. But like you talked about, John, when you look at the guidance, the guidance was above that's always a good thing. So that's giving this stock a little bit of a lift.
Up 17% or somewhere in that ballpark. I say there was one piece that was a little bit negative and people basically just flushed that down. And it was just at the the full year revenue they lowered the outlook just a little bit, but it didn't seem to affect the stock. I think people understand how great the quarter was and
most of the guidance that they put out there. So pretty impressive, I think for for SMCI.
Well, then if that's impressive, Pete, how about this one? Advanced Micro.
Because Q1 results and some people might be listening to us and say, "John, you just talked about Q3 for this other firm. Why is this one Q1? Are you looking at the wrong thing?" Companies set different yearly numbers, folks. In other words,
not everybody pegs to December 31st as the end of their fiscal year or whatever. They might decide, "Hey, our year started on X." Well, so that's why this one, AMD, Pete, with Q1 results that were a buck 37 a share, revenue up 38%
year over year. I mean, that's a phenomenal number. 38% 10.25 billion dollars. And look at that chart, Pete.
Lower left to upper right. I mean, that's a thing of beauty. And you know what else is a thing of beauty, folks?
Not too terribly long ago, not a month ago even, we had unusual activity in this name. And that unusual activity played out very nicely because they were buying an in the money call when the stock stock was 278.
278 a share. They bought the in the money 250 calls. What are they worth at that point? Well, they're worth almost 30 bucks. Well, they were trading 4240.
It simulates a long stock position for basically about a fifth of the cost of owning the stock because instead of buying the stock for 280 bucks a share, you're buying it for 4240 and it's good till June 18th of this year. In other words, another month into the future.
Look where the stock is now.
>> [laughter] >> 410 bucks a share, Pete. I mean, boom.
To the upside and obviously from the chart Jared's putting up there even higher right now trading at the highs of the day. What a phenomenal quarter for them, Pete. Yeah, pretty unbelievable.
The data center revenue, John, was only up 57%. I mean, you know, you I mean, I wish they wish it was a little more, but it wasn't unfortunately. It's also a huge chunk of the revenue that they did get out there, John. More than 50% from that standpoint as well. Q2 outlook for the rev the
the rev we're looking at about 11 billion to about 11 and a half billion, John. So, when you start looking at these numbers that AMD's putting up there, I'll tell you what, she she has been a great CEO. She's been riding this thing like a like a queen and it's unbelievable what they've been able to do, John. And they they talk about the AI and the data centers and everything
else. This is another one of those. And so, um they're in the midst of it all and I think that when you look at all their numbers and you talked about the earnings of buck 37, not so bad. And when you look up 38% on your total revenue, that's a monstrous number.
That's a year-over-year number. That's a monster. And and AMD is is crushing it right now.
Yep. Well, like you say Pete, Lisa Su, hats off to her. She is doing a phenomenal job over there at AMD. And then Flextronics, um you know, we got to give credit where credit is due. Another female CEO over there Pete, doing a phenomenal job. So, the stocks that are making big moves
today, again, we salute you. Fabulous job. Yeah. And now we got to go take a look at Compass.
Yeah. A little real estate play maybe Pete. Um c o m p, many of you have seen that one lately.
Um it has been putting up some pretty phenomenal numbers as well. And and Compass in Chicago Pete, I see their signs all the time in my Chicago. And definitely one of those stocks that you want to watch on the real estate side. It's not just
Berkshire Hathaway. Compass is really playing pretty hardball too. And they're up 30% today.
You know, they talked about all these, you know, the cost synergies that they've got that are how how optimistic they are about the guidance that they were able to put up John. And then they talked about the revenue which is up 9 I I read this and I I think it's correct, but I I'm not positive because it seems so ridiculous. But the revenue
John, 2.7 billion. That's up 99% year over year. I'm pretty sure that's what I read.
>> [laughter] >> So, an unbelievable number. But I'll tell you what, um yeah, once again, they're they're doing an amazing job and the synergies which is a very big part of what they're doing. And they're they're really capitalizing off of that as well. And so when you put all of this together, you can understand why this one's another one that's just absolutely
raging to the upside with up what? Last I looked about 26%. That's a big number.
Well, the sending a bunch of buyer inquiries to the listing brokers from Compass and coming soon to Redfin and a lot of those other spots, Pete. That's what the CEO was citing.
It is an environment where you would definitely be betting on the second half of this year. I mean, Kevin Warsh comes in as the new Fed chair. Is he going to cut rates immediately? I don't think so, but I do think by the end of the year we're going to see lower rates, Pete.
Can't really come up with the energy prices even though they're down pretty hard today. They're still elevated. I think he'll wait till those energy prices start coming back down and then perhaps he can look at cutting some rates and you know who benefits directly
other than consumers? Real estate. Real estate and anybody who borrows. Those are the beneficiaries.
Well, what do you got as far as sports today, Pete? Well, do we have that video? I thought we were going to maybe pop up that video. There we go. Yeah.
>> [laughter] >> I think we do.
Bang. I want you to take a look at this, Pete, and tell me if you'd make this guy your number one pick.
>> [laughter] >> Well, if I If he was real. I might It's AI is what it is cuz >> [laughter] >> there's no way this GUY IS REAL.
I'LL TELL you what, that's the good and bad of AI, right? I mean, there's stuff that goes out there and you're like, is that real? And now you got to question just about everything we see. But but it is either way it's entertainment, so I'll I'll take it from that side of it, John. Um why don't we jump to a little bit of sports? I I think that the
this is pretty interesting because a lot of schools, John, a lot of a lot of different leagues, the Big Ten, the Big 12, all the rest of them, SEC, ACC, have been talking about this whole thing getting in with some financial folks, right?
Finally, somebody actually inked this this whole thing. The Big 12 did. They got a five-year agreement, John, with RedBird Capital Partners. Which uh uh so private capital uh deal. It's worth 12 and 1/2 million. It's an infusion that they're going to put in there. There are 16 schools involved in this whole thing who
actually, John, if they wanted to have access to another $30 million in cash that gets paid back at a high interest.
I swear to God, I read that and I'm like, "Well, I'll bet you you can get a lot of people for a high interest rate." Give you a little bit of money, I ain't little extra money, but it's interesting, isn't it, that they're they're finally starting to get there because that we've talked about this for a long time in a lot of different, you know, whether it's the SEC who I'm sure they could do well with this whole
thing. Big 10 could probably do very well, but uh this is a five-year agreement that they inked, I guess, just yesterday, John, with the Big 12. Kind of interesting to see this whole sports and finance all coming together, right?
Yeah. Uh it's it's not surprising. Um and uh the NFL is going about it differently than the colleges are, of course. Um NFL, I think you can only be involved like with private equity and so forth, Pete, for like five or six years, I think. And then you've got to exit.
But you get your return on your invested capital over those five or six years. I don't know if you get the increase in the value of the franchise uh at that point, but again, that's for somebody else. I think it's just interesting that they're going down similar paths, trying to find ways to raise money in the short
term um so that they can continue to compete.
Yeah, absolutely. All right, I wanted to point this one out cuz yesterday we were talking about this one, John. We were looking at the NBA. We were looking at the, you know, the East and the West and they've got all these semi-finals going on and we were talking about the Thunder against the Lakers. And the Thunder was um 15.5 point uh favorite, right? I
mean, and we were we were saying well, what do we think about this? This it seems like a lot. Well, the Lakers proved to be who they are, a little bit tired, a little bit old, and I think you look at OKC and you're going, well, hold on a second. These guys beat them by 18, John. So, the the final was 108 to 90,
and OKC, I'll tell you what, Chet Holmgren, good friend of mine, that's his son, 24 points yesterday. He can shoot from three, he can shoot from absolutely anywhere. SGA threw up 18 points. AJ Mitchell, another 18 points.
And John, they were ahead in every single quarter. They had outscored the Lakers in each of the four quarters of the game. So, it was dominated by OKC, and it makes you kind of wonder, is this going to one going to be another one for OKC where it's four and 0, and they're out, and they're going to the next round? It really could be. But, the Lakers the Lakers always have a little
something, so it's going to be interesting, but I'll tell you what, that 15 and a half seemed pretty high, but I guess it wasn't high enough, huh?
No. No. And we both said that yesterday.
I'm not saying we crushed it, but obviously that bet paid off. And yeah, I think you nailed it, Pete, when you said old and slow, because that is not a team that can run with anybody in the league. That is not a team that shoots with anybody in the league, in
particular a team like this one where they spread the ball around. Holmgren, SGA, and several other of those guys that are double-figure scorers. Um, that's why I think it was a good bet yesterday.
So, the last thing I'll just wanted to throw this out. Do you probably have some comments on this one? Lawrence Taylor got out of the hospital today, which is a great thing, because the poor guy had to go in there. He had some issues with his stomach and all the rest of it, and they released him. So, hopefully that means that he's doing better. That that's what we hope. I just wanted to point out that this is the guy, John,
that you and I have talked about this dozens and dozens of times, but he's the reason that the left tackles are are usually basically a known participant of just about every offensive line in the NFL because the guy could go past just about every one of those guys with his ability to get those sacks that he was
getting or at least pressure. Either way, it was going to going to screw up the play. Lawrence Taylor was special, and I've always said this, John.
They ought to give him either 5% or maybe 10% of their contracts, every left tackle in the NFL, because of the fact of the money that those guys get paid is basically all started because of Lawrence Taylor and his ability to get around those guys. So, uh happy to see him getting released from the hospital. I hope that means that everything is is a lot better for
him. Um but, uh you know what? That guy was the best. There is no other LT. Uh you know, The running back tries to be LT, but this is a This is LT.
I'll tell you what, too, Pete. I bet uh he didn't get flowers from Joe Theismann as he left the hospital or as he was in the hospital because that's the play that you're talking about where um sadly it wasn't a deliberate
act, but Theismann broke his leg, a compound fracture on TV where ever since then, and Michael Lewis wrote the book, The Blind Side, they said, "Okay, well, that blind side tackle better be good because you never see that guy coming if the blind side tackle isn't good
enough." Yeah, so, glad you're out, LT. Yeah, we've we've seen him a few times here in New York together, Pete. Hopefully, we'll see him a lot more. Yep. All right. Well, uh I guess you're not going to be here tomorrow, Pete. No. Going in for a little checkup tomorrow. Good luck.
Yeah, thank you.
>> [laughter] >> And uh the rest of us, Jared, myself, and probably Mark Lapresti will be here tomorrow at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time for the Rebels Edge. Good luck, Pete. See you next week.
See you.
>> [music]
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