Rebels Edge · Tue, Jul 21, 2026

Markets Jump 850 Points After ONE Statement

Summary

The hosts attributed a broad market rally and a roughly 10% drop in crude oil to President Trump's announcement of a temporary pause in attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure. They discussed biotech trial results, proposed restrictions on sports betting through prediction markets, and airline prospects amid volatile fuel costs. The episode concluded with NCAA tournament highlights and NFL offseason commentary.

The Dow rose about 850 points, major indexes gained roughly 1.5%, and Bitcoin advanced following the Iran-related announcement.
The VIX fell sharply from recent levels near 29–30 before partially rebounding as investors sought hedges.
Insmed gained roughly 9–10% on positive Phase 3 results; the hosts highlighted a planned FDA application in the second half of 2026.
DraftKings and Flutter rose on proposed bipartisan legislation to ban sports betting through prediction markets.
Apogee Therapeutics rallied on Phase 2 dermatitis treatment results, but the hosts cautioned against chasing the move before further trials and approval.
United Airlines planned capacity reductions on less profitable routes while travel demand remained strong; falling fuel prices could benefit airlines.
The hosts highlighted bullish airline options activity and a prior United signal when shares traded near $88.74, versus an intraday price near $96.60.
Sports coverage focused on March Madness finishes, tournament viewership, and contrasting assessments of NFL offseason roster moves.

INSM DKNG FLUT APGE UAL AAL JBLU LUV DAL

Full transcript

Welcome back to another exciting week of the Rebels Edge where the president may say something at any moment that's going to cause the markets to go up or down a thousand points. Isn't that exciting?
You bet it is and we've got even more exciting news for you on today's Rebels Edge.
We got a wing dinger going, man.
I had to give it a few different taps because you know, we're up 850 points in the Dow.
So You know.
>> It deserves it.
>> All all all the president's got to do, Pete, is say, "Yep, we're not going to blow up their energy infrastructure for a couple days. We're going to give them a break." Boom! The market goes up like a rocket.
Crude oil falls 10% and Bitcoin even moves up, Pete. It's a miracle.
>> It is a miracle.
>> A Festivus miracle.
>> A Festivus for the rest of us.
>> Well, folks, we've got more good news, exciting news that for those of you who like watching on YouTube you can go to our new YouTube channel next week which will be {at} sign official Rebels Edge. I'm sorry.
{at} Rebels Edge official. See, I'm just getting used to it, too. So, we'll focus on that, Rebels Edge official, next week. People are already calling me. IT'S NOT YET. IT'S NEXT WEEK, YOU GUYS.
BUT, STARTING NEXT WEEK, um and it'll be fun. It's a great new spot for the Rebels Edge and when you hit subscribe and you hit that little bell up there in the what upper right-hand corner of that page, you will always get alerted for each new
episode that goes up. So, Pete, with that said, >> What's that?
>> what should we dive right into macro?
>> Let's dive into macro. Let's get her going, yeah.
>> All right. Well, markets higher following a significant announcement from DJT regarding military actions in Iran.
And I think we all have kind of watched this morning as the market just hopped to the upside and stayed there. It goes up, Pete, and just stays there. And a little follow-through would be nice, and perhaps we'll get that if the talks continue.
>> There is no other macro you could use today than that. I mean, it really is.
It's the president coming out there, getting up in front, and you giving the, you know, the the lay of the land, so to speak, and how things are going. And I think because of that, John, pretty amazing because this is a market that that was getting hit, getting hit, getting hit, and then suddenly we get a thousand point move to the upside. 850 now, but a pretty substantial move to
the upside. There's no doubt about that.
And, you know, we're just early into the day, so we'll see if we, in the next 3-4 hours, if we can actually build upon what we've got. And that'll be something I think to watch very closely, but certainly that's that is the news of the day and the catalyst for why we are up 1 and 1/2% on the S&P, the Nasdaq, and the
Dow. Pretty amazing move to the upside.
>> And Pete, on the VIX side, we initially had a very much lower VIX, but then some people wanted to get some hedging done at those lower prices for the VIX. Can't really blame them the way the market's been moving, but I'm not saying it justifies a lot higher VIX.
And it's still down on the day, but well off the low, right, Pete?
>> It is off those lows, John, but I I say this, you know, if you go back to just last Friday and you know, early that there was basically trading around a 29. So, pretty substantial move. You can see it there. I I guess maybe even you know, in some of the pre-market and so forth, maybe it was even in the 30 area, but regardless, somewhere very much higher
than it is right now because it pulled all the way back. We got into the 24s, maybe even the 23s, and that's where we find ourselves just kind of lifting off of that just a little bit right now, John. You also mentioned Bitcoin, which I think was something that I was I was pretty keen on that as well. Just these these moves that we are seeing. How about Bitcoin after being, you know, hit
pretty hard, all of the sudden the thing starts to nice make a pretty nice move to the upside as well. So, we're seeing some strength in all different parts of the market today. This isn't just a one sector rally. This is a pretty dadgum nice rally across the board.
>> Well, normally we'd go right into prediction markets, Pete, but since prediction markets are in the news, we're going to wait till we get to the news rather than just showing you some interesting uh whatever sweet 16 uh uh plays for the NCAA tournament.
>> Yeah.
>> So, instead we'll talk about Insmed, which uh reported positive top-line results. Uh they say it demonstrated significant improvement in respiratory symptoms and acute conversion rates for patients with a disease uh a lung disease that I can't even possibly pronounce.
So, I'm just going to skip over that and say, "It's a lung disease and it's significant improvements and that's why the stock is up." >> Yeah, and the stock's up pretty good. I almost, John, expected the stock to be up even higher than it is. I mean, 9 or 10%. Yeah, that's a that's a nice jump.
There's no doubt about it. It's nowhere near the 52-week highs, but um nonetheless, when you get into the phase three and you've got that opportunity now to get in front of the the folks with the new drug in front of the FDA and get that, you know, application in and that they're to already talking about that's going to happen within the second half of 2026, so this year. So, a
lot of reasons to be very bullish on this name and like I say, when you get into phase three, it doesn't mean it's an absolute automatic. However, um from what we are seeing and what those results really looked like, it certainly looks like it's somewhat of a pretty easy layup. So, um I would I would say that keep a very close eye on this name and at some point in time, if we see
unusual in here, John, I think there's good reason to be uh maybe present when this thing starts to show up with a little unusual option activity because everything about them, they've got a great balance sheet, uh you know, the approval could be coming soon and that that's something that in this space, you're always looking for that, whether it's, you know, the biotech space or
however you want to phrase it, but um this phase three sounded like they hit just about everything that they needed to hit and all of the secondary um endpoints were hit as well, John, so pretty strong move um for this stock and I think this is one to keep a very close eye on, like I say, because I think it could become a much more valuable stock
than it is right now.
>> Well, uh speaking of more valuable, Pete, uh DraftKings and FLUT, which runs um uh what is it? FanDuel, I think. Um they got a significant pop today. And why?
Because a couple of uh legislators who normally don't do much, Adam Schiff and John Curtis, they plan to uh uh present bipartisan legislation that would ban sports bets on prediction markets.
If that sounds to you folks like two guys that are looking for a little campaign spiff, I would say you're not far off. Um and why um they are so focused on, you know, these prediction markets, people, like Kalshi and like Polymarket, which by the way,
the New York Stock Exchange is a significant investor in Polymarket. Um, why they would focus on this? Again, it's a $6 billion total handle versus $67 trillion in the stock market. You don't want to ban senators and house
reps from trading in there, but you're afraid that maybe somebody could place a sports bet on a PREDICTION MARKET. OH MY! AND THAT MIGHT ruin things, right, Pete?
>> I'll tell you, it's the craziest thing I've ever seen, John. You're totally right. I agree with everything you just said. I mean, the potential for the, you know, to have sports bets on the prediction markets is something that, uh, you know, has these guys, uh, just kind of going kind of crazy a little bit on this whole thing. I mean, you know, they they talk about some of the different the reasons why that they're
doing it. Those arguments just don't hold up, John. I I I really don't think they do at all, and I think those numbers that you just put up are exactly why it doesn't hold up. And this is something that's very, very interesting to see how this is this is starting to play out to some degree, but, um, you know what? It's it's a it's another case of, you know, the politics getting
in the way of trying to get themselves some sort of maybe a little extra cash, right? I mean, and that's pretty embarrassing, I think.
So, I I totally agree with you on this one.
>> What about, uh, do you agree with me on Apogee, Pete?
>> No.
>> Um, up big today. Basically, um, this one, uh, over, uh, imagine taking, what, twice-yearly doses for something that's, uh, basically for
a topic or atopic, atopic, I think it is, um, dermatitis or AD treatment. Um, Apogee Therapeutics has a treatment like that, and it's going through phase two trials, and twice a year dose instead of much more frequent
>> frequent >> Seems like that's a good thing, right?
>> Seems like a really good thing and I think that that move is reflective of exactly that John. The only, you know, pullback that I ever give people a little bit of when we see something like this, you're going from what? 66 into the 80s? That's a great move and probably the right move. However, this is phase two. I mean, it doesn't mean it
can't get through, of course, but you start with phase one, you get into phase two, you get into phase three, and then you go up in front of the folks to try to get this thing onto the market. So, is it there yet? No. Does it look like things are are moving really really well for them? Absolutely. But, I do think that there should be a little bit of
caution on this thing because it is not an absolute. And, you know, it's great that in this phase two that they've been able to do this and reduce this down to two or four times, maybe annually. They talked about two, but they said two to four.
That is something that people I obviously that are struggling with this are probably really happy to hear about, right? I mean, this is exactly what they want to see want to hear and do and and everything else, but it has not been approved yet, so it's still a little ways away. So, just be very careful about that.
>> Yep, don't step in too fast on a phase two pop, folks.
>> Yep.
>> Chances are you'll see a pop and then a pullback. You can decide then if you really want in.
And, if you really do want in at that point, by all means. But, know that it's the phase three and then they still have to market it, Pete.
>> Got it. Yeah.
>> They have to get the licensing or, you know, the what what they can say on the label >> Mhm.
>> fits what the FDA has approved.
>> Yeah.
>> So, anyway, >> Yeah.
>> I think that's good advice. Let's do one more, Pete, and make it United Airlines.
Obviously, we have said since the war began February 28th that uh airlines are the biggest consumer of uh fuel oil uh derivatives, which become jet A, uh which is what of course United and American and JetBlue and Southwest
and everybody, Delta, that's what they need. And uh when the price goes up as dramatically as it does, and it's 30% of what you uh your costs are, that's something that's noteworthy. So, when it comes down 10%, also noteworthy. So, United, Pete, apparently
um is going to cut capacity by a little because they're worried about that uh price when it gets up towards a hundred a barrel. They need to charge a lot more in those flights. You thought they were full before, Pete. They'll be even more crowded going forward.
>> Yeah.
And they've been talking about the demand is still there, too, John. So, it's you know, I think they're really in a position to be win-win. And it quite honestly, in the airline space, we have seen nothing but unusual option activity to the upside. It seems like on a consistent basis, whether that's Delta or whether that's United or American, or
you can go through the list, JetBlue. Um we have seen a lot of positive coming out of this whole thing because the demand has remained being there. But, obviously, there are some moves that they've got to make, and they talked about, you know, reducing some of the capacity, especially on some of those routes where um it's unprofitable. So, that's a bit
of an issue as well, but I'll tell you what, the the the how robust this travel demand has been. And I I've said this time and time again, and I know John travels three times as much as I do.
But, John, how many times is there anybody left that that you I mean, when you look at it, there's not a seat left in those airplanes. They are sold to the, you know, absolute to the point where they're actually paying people to get off. And and I'll tell you what, it's been for me I have not been on an
airplane flight yet and I'm actually in Florida presently and the flight down and the flights back, um there is nothing left, John. I mean nothing left and I'm sure you're seeing exactly the same thing. So, the demand is strong with those prices. They can raise those prices obviously with along
the way what's going on with fuel, but obviously a nice very calculated move I'd say by United the way they manipulated into this position today and um I think these airlines are going to be crushing it. And and whether it's Delta or United or or even the discounters, they are crushing it nonetheless even with the the price of
fuel. Let's just think about this. How long is it going to be up here? And and if we keep a nice close eye on that, we start to see some of those oil prices come down you not just today, but continue to come back down, um these guys are going to have not only the demand, but a lot better prices for for their biggest
uptake, which is their fuel.
>> Yeah. Well, um that unusual activity that Jared showed you guys, we had that 1 week ago.
Um we had multiple hits. There it is, the 16th of March. It's the 23rd today.
So, 6 and 7 is 3.
It was a week ago. So, uh stock was 88 bucks. It traded to 9660 today, Pete. Wow. So, it was up almost a full $8 um on this move. And so, calls, if you guys would have traded it the way we do, which is we buy at the money. So, Pete
and I um would buy something like the 90s when the 88 uh when the stock's trading 8874. So, you buy the 90s, stock goes to 9660.
Bang.
Not so bad.
All right. Well, Pete, uh let's do maybe just a little sports video before we dive into uh Pete's Red Zone Sports. So, uh let's queue up that video and uh it's a buzzer-beater, folks, and I think you're going to like it.
>> It's our favorite guy.
>> A man have a March Madness moment for the ages. Kentucky is down two with only 13 seconds left, and Santa Clara was trying to pull off the upset. But, this is Kentucky senior guard Ortega Owai, and he knows this can very well be his last March Madness. And bro wasn't ready to go home >> last one, I heard.
>> just yet. And by the way, if you like the Elite Sports content like this, make sure to follow.
>> Chandler gets it to Owai, who spins, elevates, and lays it in.
>> And Owai ties the game with 8 seconds left. But, that's only one play. And instead of calling a timeout, Santa Clara comes right back down the court and answers with a dagger three to take a 73-70 lead. And now there's only 2.4 on the clock. So, this game's over, right? Cuz Kentucky has no timeouts left, and they're going to have to go the length of the floor and heave up a
prayer at the buzzer. But, like I said, this man is a senior, and he wants to play on.
>> 2.4 Owai!
>> Unreal.
>> The madness is real. The madness is real.
>> half-court heave at the buzzer to save Kentucky's season and send it to overtime. And then on top of that, he would go on to drop six of his game-high 35 points in overtime, helping Kentucky avoid the upset and move on to the next round. A performance for the ages we just witnessed.
>> Yeah, he's right. And Pete, there were a bunch of those. I mean, I've got some I'll show you tomorrow of, you know, guys that hit what looked like a buzzer beater and then by the time they rolled back the tape and look at it, they said it was still in his hand. It was
It wasn't off his fingertips yet. Not in that case. Not in the Santa Clara Kentucky game.
>> Yeah.
>> Man, uh Yukon, that game Pete. Uh there are so many of these that were right down to the tenth of a second where that ball was. Had it left certain players' hands?
We'll show you those tomorrow.
>> Well, in Vanderbilt, I was watching that one, John. We We took in more basketball this weekend than I've done in a really really long time.
And I'll tell you, unbelievable. The Vanderbilt game was unreal, too. I mean, all the way to the wire this thing was going crazy back and forth back and forth. There was 2.2 seconds on the clock. The kid inbounds the ball, dribbles maybe two or three times and throws this thing up, John, about 3/4 of the length of the of the court. And it
hits It hits the back of the rim. It goes to the front of the rim and then it bounces out. I mean, just unbelievable.
Some of them dropped. Not all of them dropped, but you know what? It's It's unbelievable and and the madness is there. And by the way, one of the things I did want to point out was record numbers for the NCAA tournament.
I mean, people are watching this thing like crazy, John. Matter of fact, here are some of the numbers. Fox is up 38% and ESPN up 25% year-over-year. So, you want to talk about having a really good bunch of games in this mayhem we call March Madness has been great. But one of
the best games, many of them, so it's really not a best, but one of the best games was that Iowa game. Cuz Iowa comes in there, John, ranked number nine.
They're a nine seed, right? They're a nine seed, which doesn't mean they're number nine. It means each of the four different units, you know? And and they these guys are one of those and they are number nine of that group of 64.
It was dead even. I mean it was an unbelievable game.
Here they're going up against, you know, all these different great teams and they knocked off the national champion.
>> Yeah.
>> A Florida. Who's got the 7 ft 9 in center? The kid who can literally damn near dunk it from standing flat-footed or whatever. And and you know, it's just amazing some of the pictures over the weekend with him standing next to other people that are 6 ft 8 or taller and they they look like little children next to this guy. But Florida, they were a
number one seed by the way. They both were almost identically John, field goal percentage almost identical. Three-point percentage almost identical. Free throw same thing. Turnovers same thing.
Rebounds same thing. I mean unbelievable game went back and forth. I thought for me this was the biggest shocker though just because you got a number one against a number nine and you're going head-to-head. I literally I like the Big Ten so I'll pull for an Iowa even if they're a, you know, somebody I shouldn't be pulling for or whatever,
but that game John, it's unbelievable.
And you know what when they talked about some of those record numbers, I see 7.5 million viewers total, you know, were were watching these games. Unbelievable, but this Iowa team is something pretty fun. When you knock off number one and you're number nine and oh by the way, you know what their record was in the Big Ten this year? Not their full
record. 10 and 10. So this is a a 500 team taking down one of the if not the best basketball team in the country in Florida. So what do you think about this one? I mean this is why the madness is there, right? Because anything can happen once you get that ball and the
whistle and everything else. I mean unbelievable weekend so far.
>> Yeah. Well, Oliver Stone had that movie about football Any Given Sunday. And the movie's kind of a joke especially when you watch it now, Pete. It just, you know, the the the action sequences and things, it's just not good.
>> Right.
>> And you know, and I love Oliver Stone and you know, his filmmaking. And I love the speech, you know, that Al Pacino gives, but I saw that on the plane the other day.
The guy next to me was watching it, so I didn't even have the sound on. I'm just watching it on his TV in between typing on my computer.
And I'm just going, "Oh, that's just like the stupid thing about them playing volleyball against a bunch of girls." Like a pro football team's going to go out there and play volleyball, you know, >> Yeah.
>> without cameras or anything, without, you know, ABC or NBC. They just happened to be on a beach in Miami, all these pro football players, and they happened to play a bunch of girls in bikinis. I get it, Oliver. I know what you're doing there.
AND I SMELL RATINGS.
BUT IT'S NOT GOOD. But as far as back to the other thing, any given game >> Yeah.
>> in basketball, man, somebody can get hot and can all of a sudden drain a bunch of threes. That one kid, Pete, um put up what? All he shot all year were threes. Not a single two-point shot for this kid all year. And then he ends up
scoring another and finally finishes with a two-pointer that wins the game for him. I mean, you know, you can't make this stuff up.
>> And that was the only points of the game he scored if I remember right, right? I mean, he didn't score the entire game and he scores the last two.
>> Well, you're thinking of the You're thinking of the St. John's kid.
>> Oh, okay. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
>> Uh Bell. I think his name's Bell.
>> That's right.
>> And Pitino said, you know, he's got, you know, what the size of church bells.
>> I love that patina. I got to know him a little bit cuz his son was the coach of the University of Minnesota for a while.
And so he'd come into town once in a while. We'd all meet up in a cigar shop or whatever in Minnesota. And I'll tell you what, he's got stories. He's got stories.
All right, John. One one last final final thing. How about the NFL?
Um we we've gotten through a lot of things. We still have the draft which is coming up in just a few weeks away now.
It's not that far away at all. And um it's amazing, John, when I'm looking at the NFL, I'm trying to decide, okay, who's really done well? And you and I've talked about that last week. And one of the one of the teams that's done a really great job, I think, was the the Las Vegas Raiders. They did a really nice job in free agency.
Um who they held on to and obviously they got back their defensive end that they love so much. Uh but who did they hang on to and who did they add? They they've done a phenomenal job and we're all expecting that Mendoza is going to be the first pick in the draft, which will make it even better. But you know who stinks and just doesn't seem to care? How about the Arizona
Cardinals, John? So they lose their, you know, their franchise quarterback essentially, right? I mean, he he actually, when you look at his numbers and you did this last week and you talked about, hey, his numbers are basically Josh Allen's numbers, right?
>> Side by side.
>> Yeah. I mean, it's unbelievable. So the Vikings got him. Great move by the Vikings. Not a great move by Arizona cuz now he's gone and they maybe wanted to make a change up of some sort, but they've got Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew. That's the quarterbacks room for the Arizona Cardinals right now.
Now, could they take somebody a quarterback in the draft? They could.
But let's be honest. It's tough to find a guy in the draft that's going to be able to play at that level at the NFL level. Usually you want to have him to maybe sit there for a year and kind of learn a little bit, right?
Well, whatever the case may be and whoever they get, it's going to be interesting, but they were a 3 and 14 team last year. You can't imagine they're going to be much better than that, you know, this year, John. They really haven't added anybody. Yeah, they needed some work on the offensive line and they signed a couple of offensive lineman. Well, they should have anyway.
They got 59 sacks against them last year. So, and that's with three quarterbacks, two of which really run around pretty well, right? I mean, for quarterbacks, they can move and they can get around pretty good.
This is just another example of Arizona just must not like their fans, right? I mean, like, what in the hell is going on with these guys, John? At 3 and 14, don't you have to have a splash and go and get a couple of players that that are big name guys that you actually show your, you know, fans that you really want to get this thing turned around?
They don't seem to me like they want to show anybody that they want to get this thing turned around. How about you?
>> Yeah. Well, uh it's it's uh they're certainly not giving you any evidence, but there could be some things happening behind the scenes. They could have contacted a number of teams about trades and we don't know, um because, you know, the other team said, "Not on your life."
The only thing the other team should want are their draft choices. Yeah. So, will you trade for a quarterback somewhere in the league in order to get my draft choices cuz I'm a 4 and 13 team or whatever. Um okay, or whatever. 14
and three, three and 14.
Remember when that guy at Michigan State told you that, Pete?
>> That was the greatest.
>> He said, "Well, you know, we're pretty darn good." Pete says, "Really? How good are you?" And the guy says, like, you know, "Whatever.
Uh well, we're 2 and 10. I mean, 10 AND TWO." >> THAT WAS A CLASSIC. He He caught us all off guard because I'm sitting I'll never forget that, John. The head coach is sitting in our our dinner room and mom and dad are there and maybe some of you guys were there, but we were all kind of, you know, just listening to what he had to pitch to us.
He goes, "And by the way, you know, we are a 10 and 2 football team." And he goes, "Well, unfortunately, the 10 are losses and two wins." He was great though, man. He was He was fantastic. A lot of the good By the way, Saturday, you know where I'm going to be, John?
I will be in Nebraska, Lincoln, Nebraska for the spring game. So, I'm looking forward to that. That should be pretty fun. Coach Osborne, one of the greatest people on Earth. I swear to God he is and he reached out to me just a week or two ago, John, and he said, "Hey, you coming to the spring game?" And I go I I guess I am. He goes, "Well,
you've got a luxury box and we can go down on the field." I said, "In." So, I'm going to be there this coming Saturday. That should be a lot of fun.
>> Yep. You're going to have to put up some videos. Yeah. All right. Well, thanks for joining us, folks. We will be back tomorrow with a whole bunch more March Madness and maybe some madness in Iran and the Straits of Hormuz, which might become the Straits of America pretty soon. That's what we're hearing. That's what
So, we'll be back tomorrow, 1 p.m.
Eastern time. See you then, everybody.

Transcript from the show's YouTube captions; automatic captions may contain errors. Educational content, not investment advice.