Rebels Edge · Tue, Mar 31, 2026
Markets Rip Higher as War End Hopes Surge
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The hosts attribute a broad market rally and declining volatility to hopes that the war could end soon, with April 6 highlighted as a key date. They also discuss pharmaceutical acquisitions, Nvidia’s partnership with Marvell, Virgin Galactic’s rally, and a negative market reaction to McCormick’s planned purchase of Unilever’s food business.
- All three major stock indices rallied as investors anticipated a possible end to the war.
- The VIX fell roughly 10–12% into the 27s; the hosts suggested it could decline further if the conflict ends.
- Kalshi pricing indicated about a 78% probability of US tariffs on China landing between 10% and 20%.
- Apellis rose more than 130% following Biogen’s reported $41-per-share acquisition bid, valued at about $5.6 billion plus potential milestone payments.
- The hosts questioned Virgin Galactic’s rally, citing cash burn, substantial short interest, and enthusiasm spilling over from the anticipated SpaceX IPO.
- Marvell gained as much as 11% following a $2 billion Nvidia partnership focused on AI and next-generation data centers.
- McCormick shares reversed earlier strength after its announced deal for Unilever’s food business; both hosts expressed skepticism.
Full transcript
Welcome back to The Rebel's Edge, where we're talking about a big rally today and why are we rallying so big and why do we have so many deals being announced? Well, I guess the market's not going into the [ __ ] folks.
>> [laughter] >> Come on back from the break and we'll tell you all about it.
>> [music] [music] >> Well, uh Pete, what do you think? Uh I [laughter] I think you still got me snickering about what you just said.
You know, if we were on one of those four-letter uh uh business shows, I'd say the same thing.
They'd have to cut >> It's cable for a reason, folks, and it's streaming for a reason. Uh but welcome back. Uh you know, I got the uh the cabinet back there sort of uh the bar cart ready to roll. That's a nice looking tequila behind you.
>> [laughter] >> But I haven't been nipping at any of it today.
Not today.
>> Today. I had to emphasize today.
>> Yeah.
All right, Pete.
All right.
>> not The Rebel's Edge unless we have the clapper. Yep. Um and uh it's it's not the market unless we have a little volatile trade here and there. Mhm. So, uh I'm going to say for our macro today, Pete, it is that the president's saying, "Look, we're either going to get what we want
now, which is a thousand pounds, I guess, of this yellow cake uranium that they've got stored in the mountains, or we're going to lock it away for all all mankind forever, along with whoever's down there with it. So, you guys decide." Um [laughter] but with that thrown out there, people
think the end of the war is getting closer, Pete. Absolutely. And there's no other thing that could stand in front of the macro of that, John. And I totally agree with you. I mean, the president out there talking about this and well, willingness to end this war and and get this thing moving forward again.
Um you know, all of that I think uh is is on the on the table and and being talked about and I'll tell you what, um it's it's been aggressive and uh I I think that why why else would we be up as much as we are right now? I mean, we've had some up days before, but this
one feels a little stickier right now.
You've got the three major indices all ripping to the upside. Nobody's kind of falling back and that's kind of what we have seen a little bit, John. Now, they they move up and then all of a sudden somebody gets a little bit weaker. But as of at least right now, um people I think are are pretty convinced that the president is a man of
his word on what what he's saying and there's a there's a willingness still now to end this war and get it done. And they've obviously April 6th, that's that's the date that everybody's looking at, right? Mhm. Well, um because of that and because of their
belief that maybe we are getting closer to that, Pete, we're seeing your VIX down double digits today. That's something interesting as well, right?
Absolutely. I mean, watching the VIX and and the you know, how how long it took for the volatility index to get into the 20s. And now, obviously, over the last month we've been hanging above the 20s, you know, into the the upper 20s, I should say. And even into the low 30s.
And you can see that right on the chart.
But the fact that we were up and and right around that 31 level just yesterday, uh pretty substantial. Now down what? Anywhere between 10, 11, 12%, something like that, depending on the moment that you're looking. But into the 27s and maybe even the lower end of the 27s for the VIX, um might not sound like a big deal. I
would say it's actually a pretty big deal. So, seeing that volatility come out and I'll tell you, if if indeed we um are right on the macro and this thing happens maybe even sooner than April 6th, that volatility index, my guess would be we would be in the very low 20s rapidly uh from the levels that we are
right now if something like that were to happen soon.
Well, let's hit a prediction here, Pete.
Um and the prediction was about US tariffs on China, on Kalshi. And as you can see, um the betting line is really it's about 78% Pete think that it'll be between 10% and 20% tariff on China,
despite whatever the uh Supreme Court or any other court might say about it, it seems that that's more and more likely based on the betting that we're seeing on Kalshi, anyway.
Yeah, you know what? It it gets pretty interesting. You know, this Kalshi and and these predictive markets I think are are just amazing. And it just gives people the opportunity to take a look and see what does it really look like right now. And you know what? And and money tends to uh to open some of that window up a little bit so we can see.
And it's interesting to see exactly what's going on there. So, I you know, it's uh it's it's very much like everything else that you and I talk about, whether it's in the stock market, whether it's in the sports world, or or in in this, we're talking about the global economy. Um it's going to be very interesting and I I think Kalshi's
probably right.
Yeah, I think there is going to be a a tariff on China and it will continue to hurt sales of Chinese goods in the US.
Mhm. All right, Pete, let's hit um Apellis. Ooh.
>> Because Apellis Pharma um is up 130 plus percent today. Because, apparently, Biogen wants them bad enough to bid that much Mhm. for the company. $41 a share,
um which is about $5.6 billion. And there's also, Pete, a another kicker if they hit certain milestones Mhm.
>> that they would get. So, as we've said many times, a lot of these companies, as they get closer and closer to a delivery of a treatment, Mhm.
>> um whether it's a cure or a treatment, Uh it seems like Biogen really wants this one, Pete, cuz to bid this much over where the stock was last night Yeah.
>> is a big reach.
It is. Although, the the one thing that does stand out here, John, is these guys at Apellis have really come through very nicely. They've got two FDA-approved medicines that are extremely significant when it comes to one of them is in kidneys and the other is in blindness.
And those are already out there and making money. So, that's a good thing.
Um they've got three more products that are sitting there right below that at the phase two level that makes it pretty interesting as well, because they've obviously done a very good job. They've gotten a few approvals already. I just talked about those two. Um and this boosts the Biogen commercial portfolio that much more. So, is it a lot? Yes,
absolutely. $5.6 billion is an incredible number. But um this is an acquisition that clearly they view as, "Hey, this this isn't the end of it and they've got more behind it and they probably are expecting more approvals going into the future." So, um I I like what Biogen's doing right here. I think
uh it's expensive, but I think they're making the right move to get themselves positioned into these categories and there's more to come.
Yep, I got to believe that that's true, Pete. And for Biogen, is a $5.6 billion bid um a big one? It is. It is. They're a $26 billion company, Biogen is. But uh
so, to spend basically, you know, call it 20% or more of your uh capitalization on an acquisition like this, that means they really view this as a uh as a lot of potential for them. So, yeah. They're not the only one today,
though, Pete. We've got a couple more that we'll talk about in a minute, including, of course, we have Lilly um out there spending as well.
Uh but let's let's talk for a moment about Virgin Galactic. Cuz we haven't talked about this one forever. Why?
Because it's not really a space company.
Yeah, they can take people to the edge of space in what looks like a glorified jet um or even an X-1 rocket or X-15 or whatever, but it's not really a space flight, right, Pete?
Right. You know, they've it's interesting, John, because you the the reason this stock is moving pretty nicely to the upside today. I mean, they've got some shorts. So, the shorts are not uh feeling too good about this.
It's about 23% um of their their stock is in the on the short side of things.
So, they did report some mixed numbers as far as the Q4 is concerned. The revenue was up 35% year-over-year. That was something that I think people liked that side of things.
Lower uh operation expenses, so that's a positive. I think right now, John, what's really happening is they're getting swept up because of the fact that we're talking about the positive sentiment of what's going on and you've also got the SpaceX IPO coming out. And so, people are kind of putting that together. Whether that's right or wrong,
that's what people are doing. And so, you know, you you take a look at this and you say, "Well, you know, launching commercially is not too far out into the future." And they are burning. Some some of that free cash flow is a free burn flow because they are burning some of that pretty quickly. But um right now, I think they are just getting swept up,
John, because of the fact that people are are viewing it like you were sort of saying, people are are viewing this as something probably more than it really is and and I think that's maybe part of the issue here. That's why I probably wouldn't be touching this one on this big move to the upside.
Yeah, and you know, if you look at Blue Origin which is, you know, Jeff Bezos or SpaceX which is Elon Musk like Pete said, um these guys out of their back pocket, either of those two guys could buy this thing if they ever wanted it and why
would they want it? It's just a It's not a rocket like the kind that Elon uses or that Bezos uses. It's just you you get into this thing, I guess, Pete and just like the X-15 back in the day, um uh you just, you know, they drop it from a plane and then the booster kicks in
and it goes to the edge of space and comes back. It's $172 million. $172 million.
SpaceX is not 10 times bigger, not 100 times bigger, 1,000 times bigger. So, nobody's thinking this is anything but just a fool's errand
uh by, you know, Branson who has just watched and seen this investment just piss lower, Pete. I mean, it was $114 bucks in 2023. It's $2 today. Two.
>> [laughter] >> A lot of bird.
Yeah, this thing is going down. Yeah.
Let's talk about another, Pete, which is Marvell. Not going down, going up. And you mentioned that, hey, what is it today that people are feeling like spending money? I mean, obviously, any day that ends in Y, um Jensen Huang is willing to spend a
couple billion dollars, apparently, because he found another spot to put $2 billion and this time it's with Marvell.
And Marvell is reacting with a double-digit gain today. Mhm.
Yeah, we've had some unusual in here on multiple different occasions, John, and it's been pretty accurate, I would say, in terms of some of the the time frame as well as the upside. I mean, this stock has made some some nice strong moves even before this most recent move, but yeah, when when you've got Nvidia there and they're
basically giving you, you know, the everything positive that you'd want when you listen to Jensen Huang talking about it and the $2 billion partnership that they're are forging together here, expanding the strategic partnership a little bit more. Um they're doing everything they can for the AI world, the next generation of
data centers and all the rest of it. I mean, you put all that together, yeah, that's going to pull Marvell up pretty substantially. It was up as much as 11% today. I'm not looking at it right this moment, but certainly this is one of those things that I think people are looking at and saying, you know what?
There is some positives left in the AI world. It's not completely done, which is what so many people have said, John, but if that's the case, I think that they not only are they wrong, but they ought to take a look and see that, you know, the Nasdaq today, well, how's that looking? Well, it's only up 400 points, but, you know, not so bad, about a 2%
move to the upside, give or take. So, yeah, I don't I would say that the AI is is there's there's a lot of folks that are trying to bang against it and say, no, no, no, but I think there are more that are saying, yes, yes, yes, and it there's still some plenty of room to the upside for a lot of these various names
within AI. And Marvell's one of those huge winners this year, Pete. I mean, you know, there's a lot of stocks that people focus on and they say, oh, the Mag 7 this, the Mag 7 that. When you look at Marvell for the year and like you say, we've had multiple hits on this
one. Um we even had a put buy about a week ago, Pete, that worked out pretty well because the of the market in general moving to the downside, but if you look at this one this year, um back in January, this was an $85 stock. Mhm.
Today it's 95.
Um and uh just a couple days ago, it was 98 or 99 dollars, Pete. So, um that was uh whatever, uh Thursday or Wednesday last week. So, Marvell's been doing okay. I would keep an eye on it, but I like it. Lastly, let's hit McCormick Spice, Pete. So, McCormick,
Chicago-based company or at least it was. I don't know if they've stuck around or not, but they're apparently going to spend a lot of money to buy Unilever's food business.
And uh they're excluding certain markets, why, who knows, but this seems like kind of a a slap-together deal, Pete, and not a lot of people in business really think it's a great move by um McCormick because they had good earnings until they announced this. Stock looked like
it was going to be trading to the upside. Then they announced this and it dived. Mhm.
Yeah, and it it took a pretty decent dive, too. I mean, look at that relatively speaking to where this stock has been and then all of a sudden you see that it's already been cascading downward and now it's testing that $50 area, basically. So, you know what? Um it I I wonder about this one as well.
I'm like you, John, I don't find this one to be as um intriguing and there's obviously the results that we're seeing, at least as
>> [laughter]
>> player, for sure.
Harden's over there now with Cleveland.
He's been at every I think he's played at every NBA team that there is.
At some point he and the beard are going to have to go, but but he's been a good player. And Steph Curry, it is amazing how the guy can shoot from absolutely anywhere on the court. I mean, it's it's really, really amazing and I I won't even say that as a guy who's a huge fan, but it is amazing and he is damn good.
But I think the closest guy, and I've said this before, I'm going to say it again, is Anthony Edwards.
So, what has Anthony done so far in his career, John? Six years in the NBA. You know how old he is? 24. He's been in there six years and he's 24 years old.
The guy was the first pick, first round night in 2020.
Um in his career, he averages 35 point or 35 minutes per game because like Michael Jordan, this guy does not ever do any of the BS where he sits out to try to rest and all the other stuff. As a matter of fact, he's ashamed of the guys who do that, which is very much like Michael
Jordan. He's averaging just under 25 points a game. This is for his career, by the way. 80% free throws, 37% from three and he um in every year that he's played so far, six years, his three-point percentage has gotten better at every single year. He's up to 40% now
shooting three-pointers. So, unbelievable, I think. I think this guy is is a phenom. I'm not saying he is the next Michael Jordan, but I think he's the closest thing that I've seen because he's still young, he's got a hell of a lot of time, he's got an interesting team here with the Timberwolves, but
we're just always a player away, but um he is pretty darn special, John, and I just figured, you know what? Is there anybody on that list or anything that you, you know, and that could be even a while ago, doesn't matter. Who Who is as close to Michael as you can think of?
Because you and I both know Michael a little bit, and the most competitive player I think I've ever seen on the planet in anything he does, and all he does is win. Well, just take a look at what he's doing in NASCAR right now.
Pretty amazing.
Right. Um well, SGA used said, Pete, active players playing right now, I'd say SGA and Luka Dončić uh or Dončić are the two best. They're both They both average over 31 a game.
Um so, if you're putting up that kind of points per game, that kind of production, you that's one of the many things that Michael could do. Now, Michael always was a rebounder as well as a defensive player, a blocker, and all the rest. Assists, yeah. You know, triple doubles and all that kind of
thing, that's what Michael was. So, if you're looking for that kind of stuff, like the rebounds and assists, you'd go over to Jokic out of Denver, Pete, and you might say, "That's pretty damn good. He doesn't score the same kind of points that Michael did, but
rebounds per game about 13, assists per game almost 11." So, that's a guy that's helping you win each and every night he's out on the court. Uh but uh I think since it's a a scoring game, I think Luka and SGA and Anthony Edwards
are probably the top three picks to be uh you know, I guess they should probably just have a Michael Jordan award, Pete. That way we'd never have to do it again as far as um you know, who's the goat. Just say, "Okay, who gets the Michael Jordan this year?" >> [laughter] >> Well, here's the other thing, too, John.
He was the Defensive Player of the Year in 1987. This is a guy who's the shooter, he's the rebounder, he's the assist guy, he's all those things, and Defensive Player of the Year. I mean, that's That is pretty amazing. I mean, the guy played both sides, he did it all, and I don't know. That's That's a
big reason why, you know, and he did didn't ever do any of this BS where they sit out, which is just a crock of crap.
But it is what it is. All right, next up, NFL. It's It's kind of fun, John, because as we're getting a lot closer, we've got the draft coming up. We've gone through a lot of the free agency, obviously, and so forth. Um the next thing after the draft and the camps start to get going and all the rest of it, we got Hard Knocks, which for the
people who haven't had a chance to watch it, it's always kind of a a fun thing, right? It's to just see the inside, see what the players are doing, and what it's like, and all the all the different things that are out there, and you know, it's it's an inside look that you get, and it's great. So, you know who's going to be the team this year? The Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks. That should
be pretty cool. And you know, we're we'll get a chance to see what what it's like inside of a Super Bowl winning team's, you know, the locker room and the social life, and Mike McDonald, who's the head coach, who does a great job, and you know, a quarterback who in his first year getting over there, all of a sudden brings these guys to the Super Bowl. It's just It was an amazing
story last year, and I think Hard Knocks will be fun. By the way, the following year, New England. So, that could be pretty cool, too. And I think, you know, when you get Mike Vrabel and and uh Maye and and some of the players that they've got out there, that's going to be pretty colorful, but I can't wait for it, man.
And then, you know what? Uh It's amazing how many people watch stuff like Hard Knocks. It's not like it's just guys like you and I who played ball. It's everybody, and it's it's a big deal, man. It's It It gives you that inside view, and it's it's pretty special to do that. What do you think of this whole thing with the Hard Knocks?
Do you like it as much as me? Oh, I do.
I do, and I I think it's it's a real priority right now, Pete, because they got to replace Walker, who was and is a great player. But there aren't a lot of running backs when they get to be that age that have a great next four years.
You know what I mean? So, I understand that they said, "Okay, we're going to move on. We're going to find one." Now, there are a couple that you've talked about going through the combine, and maybe a sleeper or two like that kid from Arkansas, Pete.
>> Yeah. Uh the running back down there that's so damn fast. But so, they got to The interesting thing is, Super Bowl winners, um great quarterback, and you lost your running back. So, that's priority number one to me in the in the draft for them. Now, would they take an
edge rusher if the best edge rusher is still on the board? Keep in mind, of course, Super Bowl champs, they draft last. Um but uh I think yes, they would take an edge rusher, Pete, because they do need that. But it's edge edge rusher,
and it's running back for Seattle Seahawks. It's not like they Oh, we got to start over. Nope. Just got to plug and play. Everything else still works.
They got Smith-Njigba or whatever his name is, Pete. You know, that great wide receiver. They gave JSN a whatever, 100 and What was it? 140 million or 180 million dollar deal?
>> huge, yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> [laughter] >> So, you know, they've got who they need, and they've got Cooper Kupp still, too, who loves playing back in his home state again.
So, I think that this will be a really interesting There's a lot of players that people know. Yeah.
>> And especially with JSN uh you know, getting that huge contract and Darnold and everything else, people know a lot of these names, and they're going to learn a lot of those defensive players' names, Pete, because those are the guys that were shutting it down all
year long for Seattle. And those are some big, mean dudes. Yeah. Well, and and they lost, you know, like everybody.
Every team's going to lose players and sign players and everything else, but they did You brought up Kenneth Walker, who uh is about as good as it gets patient running running back ever in my life, John. The fact that he basically takes the ball, and he's walking practically to to where the offensive
line is, and then he hits it, and he starts just moving around. I mean, I've never seen anything quite like it. It's cool. I got an opportunity to watch him when he was at Michigan State before he actually got into the um professional football, but it's amazing. And they lost a couple of guys. They lost a guy who's got a famous name, but Kony Ealy,
who's a safety for them, they lost him.
They lost an edge rusher who played at the University of Minnesota, Boye Mafe, who is a Minnesota-born-and-raised kid, big, strong edge rusher. So, without him, you know what they might do? Do exactly what you just said is, if it's an edge rusher that's there when they pick, great. If it's a corner or maybe a
safety or whatever, cuz they lost a corner as well, they might be considering it. So, they've they've got a few things on their plate that they're going to they're going to have to fill some spots, for sure, but anyway, when it comes time, and they've already done the draft and everything else, and it's now you know, back into like August, I can't
wait for this this whole thing to start up again. Yeah, this this Hard Knocks is I think it's really, really cool. And they they've been doing it for a long time, and it just gets better every year.
I agree. Well, um we'll get started with another Rebel's Edge tomorrow, folks, and uh like Pete's already said, uh we're expecting a lot to be happening next week because tomorrow's April Fools.
It's the 1st of April. So, 5 days hence, we're expecting something. We'll see if it happens in that time frame or it even happens over the weekend, Pete. Yeah.
>> So, cross your fingers, and we'll see you tomorrow at 1:00 p.m. Eastern time.
Transcript from the show's YouTube captions; automatic captions may contain errors. Educational content, not investment advice.