Rebels Edge · Wed, May 20, 2026
NVDA Takes Center Stage After the Bell
Watch on YouTubeSummary
The hosts preview Nvidia’s after-the-bell earnings, focusing on AI demand, Blackwell sales, margins and guidance while noting the risk of profit-taking after a strong rally. They also discuss easing Treasury yields, developments at Roivant Sciences and Intel, and Lowe’s results relative to Home Depot. The episode closes with NFL free agency and potential college football playoff expansion.
- Treasury yields retreated after reaching elevated levels, helping stocks rebound, while the VIX moved toward 17.50.
- The hosts expected Nvidia to beat earnings and revenue estimates, citing Blackwell demand, hyperscaler spending and strong margins.
- Nvidia’s guidance remained a key catalyst; cautious commentary or profit-taking could weigh on shares even after strong results.
- The hosts highlighted 25,000 Nvidia $245 call contracts as a substantially larger wager than the cited prediction-market activity.
- Roivant Sciences rose on positive Phase 2 rheumatoid arthritis trial results and an unexpected quarterly profit; further trials and regulatory approval remain necessary.
- Intel gained amid reports it was encouraging PC makers to adopt its 18A-process chips, alongside optimism about margins, AI and data-center growth.
- Lowe’s beat quarterly revenue and earnings estimates, but cautious guidance and a soft housing market tempered the reaction; the hosts viewed its results more favorably than Home Depot’s.
- The sports discussion covered veteran NFL edge rushers and concerns that a 24-team college football playoff would increase player workload and diminish the regular season.
Full transcript
Welcome back to another exciting episode of As the world, I mean, The Rebel's Edge.
Welcome, folks. We're going to give you what's moving in the markets and why why were we down yesterday and why is that same catalyst not a catalyst today?
We'll have the answers for you on today's Rebel's Edge.
>> [music] [music] >> Bang.
>> I'm just going to warn people that if they hear what sounds like a cutting saw >> [laughter] >> Probably is.
>> It might be coming from inside.
>> [laughter] >> Yeah, uh I'm lucky enough right now, folks, that I've got a new kitchen being installed, uh which is fabulous. That's why I'm outside instead of inside. And as soon as I come outside, of course, then the neighbors who are likewise installing new stuff in their place start hammering and sawing and
everything else, so it's a treat.
>> [laughter] >> But, it'll be great when it's done, Pete. Then you'll have to come down.
>> Living the dream.
>> Living the dream.
Well, uh folks, yesterday it was all about interest rates and uh we put up a little chart that kind of shows you what interest rates uh have been doing. They hit a 19-year high yesterday, Pete.
>> Wow.
>> That's one we don't want to see too many times in the future. Um the 30-year Treasury hadn't been that high since, as you see on your screens, June of 2007.
And uh the uh interest rates do affect an awful lot of things. I don't need to tell all of you guys that. But, the good news is interest rates have retreated a little bit today and instead we're focused on the other catalyst that comes our way just after the market
closes today. And what is that, Pete?
>> Well, it might be the world's most valuable company given their earnings and uh that should be pretty interesting actually, John. I mean, it's something that, you know, the stock movement has been absolutely outrageous over the last, I don't know, month or so, but um we'll see if that can continue on after
they deliver. Even if the delivery is strong, um there's possibilities of anybody trying to get some sort of reason to say, "Ah, let's lighten up on this thing." So, we'll find out a lot about things about NVIDIA specifically as we get deeper into this macro side of things and deeper into the day as well.
>> What about the VIX? I mean, yesterday, like you were saying, the VIX could hardly get up over 18. What's it doing today with the market rallying 400 points?
>> It cannot get over 18. Actually, it did get over 18 very early, 18.20, but we're a lot closer to 17.50 as we get uh deeper into the day. We we, you know, the markets have kind of shifted around.
Yeah, we've got much more positive markets as we're speaking and because of that, uh you know, the the movement itself is not very big, John. I mean, we're talking about, you know, 2/10, 3/10 of a percent type of thing. So, um it's interesting to see, but it is moving to the downside, which it should be based upon what we're doing, what
we're seeing. Um it there's no reason for it not to be a lit- little bit closer to 17 and maybe even push into the 16s potentially.
>> Well, um I thought you'd really enjoy this prediction market, Pete, and for all of our viewers, uh because the prediction markets are all over NVIDIA today, Pete. And they have earnings after the bell, as Pete said, the most valuable company on Earth and 96%
chance that they're going to beat on quarterly estimates. So, does that mean, Pete, that they've that Jensen Huang has lowered the bar so he can easily step across it? Or is it because they have so many levers to pull? It's not just what they do with the Blackwell chip.
>> It's levers. I'm going to say that. It's Blackwell chip. It's going to be all of that, John. And I think that all we've got to do is look back and say, "All right, what is the rest of the earning season look like?" Well, essentially, we're very close to about what? 85% beats? So, I would say that Nvidia will
just add on to that and give a little bit more to that 85% because my gut tells me that it's going to beat and beat substantially both the earnings and the revenue. And it's going to be a lot more about what did they say? And I I would expect what they say will be pretty strong as well. So, um but in
terms of that that poly market, I think absolutely it's not that they lightened it up either that they could just step over it. They're that good right now. That's how good Nvidia is and that whole market right now because as we all know, everybody wants to, you know, hate on AI. If you go back 6 8 months ago, oh
boy, it's all done. Yeah, this is it.
That was the high. We're going to the balloon's going to pop. Well, I don't think that balloon has popped just yet, John. As a matter of fact, AI AI AI data centers, I mean, you name it.
It's still very very strong right now.
>> Yep. And uh there's a guy that made a lot of money betting on these stocks, Pete. Uh 24-year-old guy at Anthropic that uh basically left his job at Anthropic, uh raised like 100 or 200 million, and has turned that into 13
billion dollars in just 2 years. And he is saying that it's all about energy that it takes to power the data centers.
We'll see if he's right. He owns an awful lot of puts. He's kind of like Michael Burry. He's flipped completely from very very bullish on all of these stocks including Nvidia to I think they could correct and meanwhile I'm going to be in the energy provider space.
>> Mhm.
>> And we'll talk about that more in the future folks. His name is Leopold and Pete and I will cover it for you I'm sure over the next several weeks.
But let's take a look at Nvidia Pete and >> potential positives. Well, I'll take the first one Pete. Positive would be stronger than accept than expected Blackwell ramp. In other words, the hyperscalers like Google and so forth, Meta,
are surging with their spending and we know that that's true. Now, we don't know how much they spent with Nvidia in the quarter yet because we'll know tonight. They had to hold that kind of close to the chest, but AI accelerator dominance, yeah, that's one of the big
positives for Nvidia today. What do you have for the next one, Pete?
>> I would say gross margins, John. I would expect that that's going to remain something to be very very strong for them.
You know, there's so many different, you know, levers that they're going to be pulling and we're going to be talking about, John, but I I would say that gross margins is another one. I like what you're talking about with the back Blackwell chip as well as the AI accelerator dominance that these guys have had. So, and you know what? I'll be interested to
hear him actually talking about it and I think it'll be a positive is all the different investments that they've been making in other companies. And I think that has been, you know, billion here, billion there, billion here, 2 billion there. You know, what the hell? When you're the world's largest and the most valuable company, uh you can do stuff like that.
>> Well, Pete, I'm going to say it's all about the beat and raise. If they do that on the one side, that's going to be really good. On the other side, the contra to that is that they actually have to take a look and say, "You know what? Um uh we're going to give cautious inline guidance." Now, that's not something
that Jensen Huang usually does there, Pete. And I'm going to show you unusual activity because even though we said like Polymarket, for instance, is uh betting that uh we're going to see 96% chance of a beat, it's less than $100,000
bet on that, Pete. Do you know how much money those two trades on your screens, folks? Do you know how much those two represent? The one is 25,000 contracts of the June 245 calls. Now, that's the 1st of June, 245 calls.
$3.44.
See, you move that decimal two places over because each option is actually $344 * 25,000.
That's a real number, Pete. And it's a heck of a lot bigger um than uh uh the uh money that's being wagered on Polymarket. Um in fact, it's $875 that bet. So, who uh
ever it is that wants to follow Polymarket against stocks, you're probably not in the right spot.
>> [laughter] >> The last thing I'd say on this whole topic with Nvidia, John, is that um it's had an incredible run. And I'm not saying this will happen or has to happen, but it could happen, which is, you know, people might want to take some profits uh even off of a great number.
And that's something that can be a bit of a risk because you take a look at what this stock has done over the last couple of months. It's up better than 25%. I mean, it's been absolutely screaming to the upside and it's been something that's been pretty close to a bottom left upper right angle. You can see it right there. So, is there going
to be some profit taking afterwards? We have seen stuff like this happen in the past. It could happen again um because the extraordinary moves that we've seen out of Nvidia over the last few years has been absolutely, you know, amazing to watch. And um I'm not saying it's going to happen.
I'm just saying it is a possibility that it could happen. So, we'll be watching Nvidia very, very closely after the close. It's going to be a It's going to be really interesting to see what direction it goes. And we I think already have a pretty good idea that they did damn well with the earnings, damn well with the revenue. And so, with with that as a backdrop, I guess it's
just going to be what's the interpretation that people really have.
>> Well, then we have Pete Roviant Sciences. Um this one sharply higher after its subsidiary uh posted initial results from a phase two trial evaluating um a uh treatment for rheumatoid arthritis, an autoimmune disease, of
course, that affects people's joints.
And it affects an awful lot of people, Pete, which is why ROI V, again, the uh company that owns most of that uh uh company with the phase two trials, that's why this one is running to the upside. But, it's not the only reason, is it?
>> It's not the only reason. I'll tell you what, John, one of the things that they brought up with hey, uh how about these kind of earnings? You were expected to lose 29 cents, but you actually made 28 cents.
That's amazing. You don't see something like that happen very often because that is a complete flip and a very positive one. They've also got a pretty dadgum deep pipeline, John. I think that part of it's pretty strong. Their their cash position is absolutely outrageous how much cash that they've got.
It's great. It's fantastic. Also, the income itself. I mean, they're making millions of dollars as opposed to losing you know, somewhere close to a million dollars the 2.21 million dollars in the previous year. So, they have flipped things around pretty nicely. I think this is the reason why it's sitting at a 52-week
high today. I think it got a little bit north of 32 bucks. There it is right there. So, a really nice performance and you know, the phase two trial as you and I would always comment on, hey look, that's great. That's fantastic. Things are going well. The results are great.
You still got to get past phase three and you still got to get approval. So, it's a long ways for that. But, in the meantime, you're looking at these earnings and you're like, wow, these guys crushed it.
>> Yeah.
They absolutely crushed it, Pete. And it was some performance that uh uh you're certainly grateful for when you spend what they have to spend on what Pete would always call the burn, folks. Because the burn rate getting through just development and then phase
one, phase two, phase three, and then FD full FDA approval of your not just what goes on the label, Pete, but what you're going to say to doctors that are going to be prescribing this stuff and so forth. That takes a while. And all of that meanwhile, you have to pay people that are out there working for you while
you're not bringing in rev.
All right. Intel, Pete.
Trading higher.
Reports that they are asking PC makers to utilize their chips built on an 18A production process. Now, this has been viewed by several people, most notably Wedbush Securities, as a sign that
they're really prioritizing their margins. They want bigger margins. And obviously, every company, if they could, would be out there saying, "Yeah, I want bigger margins, too." Well, how do you get it? You really push um people towards your most profitable chip, if you will.
And that's exactly what Intel's trying to do right now. We'll see if the PC makers go for it, Pete.
>> Yep, we will and we'll find out. I think I kind of get the feeling that somebody out there thinks that they might, John, because, you know, I'll let this one out there. There's some huge buying going on in Intel today. So, we'll keep a very close eye on that, but the significant revenue growth that they're having, John, um Intel with the data centers and
so forth, that's big. The AI growth, that's another one that's big, up 22% year-over-year. Um Intel has really turned the corner and they didn't just turn it, John. They turned it, they burned it, and this thing has been absolutely ripping to the upside on a pretty consistent basis. What is it up
today? I think something close to 5% again. So, really, really impressed with what's going on there and, you know what? They're doing everything they can to kind of capitalize on things as they uh move even higher. So, impressed with Intel, which is something, if you go back a year or two, John, how many
people were pretty depressed about what was going on with Intel when it just struggled. Everybody else is running and they're just sitting there and now that has changed dramatically, especially with some of the investments like our own country that have gone into this whole thing, right?
>> Yeah. And uh I heard uh the president, Pete, the other day musing about this.
Um and it's the same thing all of us do, folks.
>> Yep.
>> I mean, you never bet enough on a winning horse. So, he was saying, "You know, I probably should have bought more down there. More than 433 million shares for the American people when I gave them 8 billion, I probably should have doubled up on that. Done like 800 million shares.
>> [laughter] >> Something.
As I said, folks, that is an old Wall Street adage that I'm sure people at the track probably like our friends at Susquehanna, Pete, that are big horse betting fans >> Yeah.
>> would say, "Yeah, you never bet enough on a winning horse." >> Right.
>> Um and this horse is winning, winning, winning.
All right, let's finish up, Pete, with Lowe's.
>> Mhm.
>> Talked about it yesterday because we knew when Home Depot came out with their earnings that Lowe's was going to follow up because they always do. And the question is, does Lowe's um find uh better uh customer uptake than uh uh Home Depot did. And the answer is,
yeah, they did. In fact, they put up better numbers, I think, overall, Pete, than Home Depot did. But they're also a far cry off the 52-week low, whereas Home Depot was right there, slammed down on their 52-week low. So, um this was a
top-line and bottom-line beat for the first quarter. And uh Lowe's initially traded down on it, Pete, but they're back to unchanged already.
>> Yeah, nice to see that. You know, the the one reason why I think that there was a little bit of apprehension there, John, is the soft, you know, housing market. That's one thing for sure. And the other is the the outlook itself. A little bit cautious for the outlook.
Nothing Nothing terrible or anything, but cautious. And people, you know, that's what you and I talk about every time we get around earnings. It is what does the outlook look like? What does the projections look like? We've We know what happened this quarter. That part's great. They executed. They beat on both sides. But what does it look like into the future? And when they put up
something that was a little cautious, I think that's where there was a little bit of a backpedal. Also, what's going on with the housing world. Uh that's another thing that's got people kind of easing back just a little bit. So, I can tell you this.
Did they have some some profits? Yes. Is that a little bit of an issue though? A little bit of an issue. They needed to have a little bit more. At least that's what what the expectations were. So, that's why I think it's, you know, kind of struggling to get into positive territory. But like you said, it's a little bit better than it was earlier on when it was getting beat up a little
bit. Yeah.
>> This one is down beat on the year, but they're down because but not as much as Home Depot. And like I said, off the lows of the 52-week and the chart kind of shows yeah, drifting lower and you're drifting lower
because of what we topped the show with.
And that is you've got interest rates that are at 19-year highs.
That ain't good if you're really servicing the home builder industry and that's what both of those two stocks do.
So, question is how quickly can they turn it around when Kevin Warsh raises his hand on Friday?
We'll see. All right. Let's Let's see.
Do we have a video today, Pete? I can't remember if we got one through.
>> All right. Well, I'll share one tomorrow then. But I'll let you take over for sports in the meantime.
>> All right. I'm not going to talk basketball, but that basketball game last night was outstanding. I mean the Knicks the what they did in the fourth quarter, John, it was absolutely extraordinary like I haven't seen. It was It was great to watch, but you know what? I mean there's there's only so much commentary you can have on that.
I've got some stuff out of the NFL that I still find really interesting, John, and it's about free agency. Yes, believe it or not, there's still out there some free agents are still out there. I mean we already had earlier in the week where we had, you know, Rogers deciding, yeah, I'm going to I'm going to play one more year with the Pittsburgh Steelers. And
that's fantastic for the Steelers. I think that he could do an unbelievable job with the kind of team that they have built there and the coach that maybe they bumped heads a little bit at Green Bay, but they had a lot of success as well. So, as far as some of the free agents that are left, I wanted to focus on one specific position because
this year in the NFL, I think this is probably become the most important position outside of quarterback that anybody ever talks about and it's an edge rusher. Now, I got three names that I'm going to throw to you, John, that I think are really, really interesting um because they're older gentlemen. I'm the
first to say these guys aren't some 25-year-old, 26-year-old people. These are guys that are well beyond that, but they still can play. And I just wonder who's going to sign, for instance, Cam Jordan. This guy's unbelievable. His dad and I played together with the Minnesota Vikings gives you a an idea how old I
am, but he was a tight end for the Minnesota Vikings. His son, I think, is a Cal Golden Bear, John, and Cam Jordan.
Um unbelievable. He's in his 16th year.
He had 10 and 1/2 sacks last year.
That's still a pretty big number for an edge rusher, I think. You know, it's it's not bad at all. I don't know where that ranked him, but he's pretty high up there. Jadeveon Clowney's another one, John. Yes, he's a little bit older. He had 8 and 1/2 sacks last year. He had 32 pressures. I think he's the kind of guy who was with the Cowboys. I think he's
the kind of guy that somebody's going to want to have a guy like that who's big, fast, strong, and can still get around that edge to get some sacks. Lastly, a guy that you and I are familiar with for sure because of a friend of ours who who happens to represent him, but Von Miller. Nine sacks last year uh with the
Commanders.
These guys can still play, John. I think they still want to play or they probably would have pulled their their names off and they would have probably said I'm going to retire. We haven't seen that, so I'm going to say if you're the Chicago Bears and you have two edge rushers who both got hurt last year. One of them an
Achilles, the other one an ACL. Those aren't just joke around kind of injuries. Those are injuries that might expand and and get into the season before these guys actually get on the field. I'll tell you what, John. Chicago Bears ought to be looking because I think the price could get right for some of these names because nobody else is
picking them up, so maybe there's a shot. So, whether it's Von Miller, whether it's Cam Jordan, whether it's, you know, Clowney, somebody ought to get onto that Bears team because the offense looks damn good. The defense needs a little bit of something on that outside because of injuries. I just think them, Detroit, Carolina. Carolina last year,
John, had the lowest number of pressures on a quarterback of any team in the NFL.
So, do they need an edge rusher? Hell yeah, they do. So, there's three teams for three guys, but if if you're if you really got the room to do it, maybe you pick up two of them.
One-year contracts, just short, and you go that way.
>> Well, and that's what they're looking for, Pete. Uh short one-year contracts, for sure the first two guys.
>> Mhm.
>> For sure Cam Jordan and Von Miller. Um and they're both probably going to be in the $6 million range.
>> Mhm.
>> Which is a lot of money >> Mhm.
>> folks, but it's also not a lot in NFL terms. It's almost embarrassingly low.
In fact, it's probably near what the given that they both got I think they're both 37 years old, Pete, Cam Jordan and Von Miller. Von's a friend of ours, folks. Um his agent, Kristen Caliga, is a good friend and hopefully Pete and I
will be out there in Vegas in July for his sack summit. Uh where he and Cam Jordan and Max Crosby all get together and they kind of share the tricks of the trade with the younger generation edge rushers and so forth. So, it's
going to be a great time. But, you're right, Pete. Clowney, he played for I think 3.45 million last year, Pete.
>> Wow.
>> He's 32 with the Cowboys and they needed a guy because of course they they lost their their big guy to Green Bay. Well, he ended up getting an Achilles injury, I think, Pete. Prob- probably because he didn't get to camp.
>> [laughter] >> Um and might not have been totally ready. That's one of the risks when you do basically hang out for too long, folks.
But, I think you're right. A team like Chicago could benefit from picking up one of those guys and I know they're all three good and I would love to see Jadeveon Clowney in a Bears uniform.
>> Yeah.
>> And the the Cowboys would hate to lose him for just 3.5 million because that is an NFL bargain.
>> That is the bargain basement, I think.
>> Yeah.
>> Not bad. Not too bad. All right, college football real quick, John. Playoffs.
There's a big argument going on right now. The SEC is kind of kicking it off because they've got their meetings. The Big Ten's going to have their meetings not too long from now, but they're kicking around the idea. So, presently we've got a 12-team, that's the current thing, for the playoffs for college football.
The SEC would like to see it, maybe if you're going to change it, they would like to see it stopped at around 16 teams. Well, the Big Ten, and I kind of I'm leaning with the SEC on this one.
The Big Ten's pushing for a 24-team playoff. Um here's the problems that I have with that one, John. I think that there is a possibility that you're you're you're going to have excessive amount of playing, which really could be wear and tear on these young guys that are playing in college, and now all of a
sudden you're going into that type of a deal. You've got 24 teams. I just I don't really like it, and I think the SEC makes some very good points. They project that the significance of the regular season starts to get lost cuz you're not going to be playing. And by the way, we're talking about you know, groups of guys in the SEC where you've
got, you know, so many teams you can't count them all. The Big 10 just as much, and then the Big 12 All of them have expanded, so you're going to get less and less of those games and then more in the playoff games potentially. I don't know, John. I'm just curious what you think about this. I just think it's a little bit too much. I think it's greed that they're going for here because, you
know what? Those numbers for the 24, you know, team playoff probably get pretty big TV-wise and everything else because of what it really means, but I just think it's too much for the young guys to do. I really do. I think, you know what? At the At the NFL level, it's a much different game. College level, I'll
tell you what, um, these guys are going to be getting burned out by the time they get there. I mean, you know, it's it's gotten to be expanding more and more and more games just like the NFL.
College football, same thing. I mean, you know what? Remember when the NFL, there was 12 games, John?
Jumped to 14. I think it went to 16. Now it's 17, something like that. So, what do you think about this?
>> I think overall, um, they'd have to cut back on regular season.
>> Yeah.
>> Which would, you know, further diminish the uh, rivalries between like Michigan State and Michigan.
>> Mhm.
>> Or Minnesota and Iowa. Or Ohio State and Michigan and so forth. They'd keep those real high signature games, Pete, I think if they ended up cutting back on regular season games, but that's the only way I would
see clear to expand it. Right now, it's just expanded to 12 teams, folks. Um, and I think that's about right. Uh, it will be 12 again this year, Pete, uh, but next year, uh, in 2027, could it be 16?
Could be. I don't think it's going to be 24. And the only way you can get to either of those numbers, 16 or 24, is to cut out at least one regular season game and, uh, because otherwise you're playing basically all the way to the Super Bowl, Pete.
>> Yeah.
>> And, you know, uh, it to me that doesn't make any sense, and I think your point about taking advantage of the athletes, even though many of them are getting paid handsomely.
>> Yeah, that's true.
>> It's it's it's not the same as pro, uh, and they shouldn't be making them play as many games as pro, in my opinion.
>> Yeah. Yep. I agree with you. I agree with you. I'd like 16, I think is okay.
You start going to 24, now it starts to get a little too ridiculous for me, and I think that's way too much greed, and I blame the Big 10 for that greed, if that's the if they're the primary one that's there, and I think they are.
>> Well, folks, we appreciate all of you joining. Pete is going to be traveling tomorrow because he thought tomorrow was Friday instead of Thursday. We usually travel on Friday.
The show airs Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Friday's the travel day, but he forgot that. So, instead we'll have Mark Lopresti in here, uh, for the Rebels Edge while Pete's up in the air flying off somewhere.
>> [laughter] >> But, this is usually you, man.
>> I bet you remember what when the I I bet you remember when the show is, though, what time of day.
>> 1:00 p.m. Eastern tomorrow.
>> 1:00 p.m.
>> Last one of the week.
>> Eastern time.
>> [music]
Transcript from the show's YouTube captions; automatic captions may contain errors. Educational content, not investment advice.