Rebels Edge · Tue, Jul 21, 2026

Oil CRASH Sparks Market Rally — Here’s What’s Next

Summary

The hosts discuss a market rally linked to falling crude oil prices and optimism around potential Iran peace talks, while noting that volatility remains elevated. They review company-specific catalysts at Sarepta, Arm, Chewy and Braze, then cover sports predictions and upcoming Market Rebellion events.

Crude oil's sharp decline and potential peace talks were described as the main drivers of the market rally, which had eased from its early highs.
The VIX traded around 25–26; the hosts suggested favorable news could push it below 20, but emphasized continued uncertainty.
Sarepta rose roughly 25–28% on encouraging early-stage muscular dystrophy trial data, with further testing and regulatory review still ahead.
Arm gained more than 20% as management outlined ambitious revenue projections through 2031 and identified Meta as its new chip's initial customer.
Chewy rallied despite earnings and revenue misses, supported by full-year revenue guidance of $13.6 billion to $13.75 billion.
Braze drew bullish commentary on AI-related offerings, enterprise bookings growth and quarterly revenue rising from roughly $160 million to $205 million.
Both hosts favored underdog Texas against Purdue in a prediction-market wager because of the potential payout relative to the stake.
Sports coverage included Bryson DeChambeau's potential contract extension, Tiger Woods's possible Masters participation and MLB contender predictions.

SRPT ARM META CHWY BRZE CBOE

Full transcript

Welcome back to another exciting Rebels Edge where we get a little boost out of the markets because crude oil goes down like a rocket and we're seeing a lot of opportunities in the market that we're going to describe for you along with predictions and sports on today's Rebels Edge.
>> [music] [music] >> Yep.
>> [laughter] >> I slept on it.
>> [gasps] >> I'll tell you what, John.
It's not an option. It is not an option.
I'll tell you, that thing is so that that plays everywhere.
>> [laughter] >> I've seen that everywhere feels like.
It's great. Yeah, and the great thing is Pete people are always asking us, "So you guys are doing CNBC, CNN, Bloomberg, and Fox now?" And I said, "Yep." >> [laughter] >> In terms of where that commercial plays, yep. Yep. But yeah, thank you guys for
signing up for uh It's not an option. The book is still free. Shipping will cost you, I think nine bucks, Pete. Something like that.
>> Uh and quite frankly, if you can't afford the nine bucks, you probably shouldn't be trading anyway.
>> [laughter] >> But we'll give you the book. We'll give you the book.
All right. Uh let's dive right into macro, Pete. And what is macro today?
Well, Pete and I know this guy with the Kobayasi Report and or Kobesi? What is it, Pete? Something like that? Um that that that he has for years done a great newsletter uh and folks you should take
a good look at it, but that newsletter um published that uh the uh price of crude oil fell for I think nine straight days, Pete. And in the Middle East, it was as high as 170 because of uh the war
going on and it fell back down now to under 90. So they were saying how large that fall off has been and truly it has been pretty amazing. So that is my macro today. Yeah, this kind of ties into that, John, because there's nothing more macro than what's going on in Iran, obviously, and the streets and all the
rest of that and peace talks all of a sudden starts coming up, right? And that that's got people pretty fired up. We'll see. We'll >> [laughter] >> we'll see. But um you know, starting off the day what, up 500 on the Dow and and across the board having a pretty nice start, but kind of easing off of those
highs a little bit, John. Still still positive, still triple digits, but um off of where we were. So we'll see how that plays out, but that certainly is I think the the market mover and we know it. That's what it's been and it's a combination of that and the price of oil and obviously volatility of the what that's going on. All those things kind
of come together with this with what's going on and how the markets are shifting.
Right. And Pete, our former colleague at CNBC, was saying how he can't afford gasoline. This is Carl Quintanilla. And I kind of pointed out to Carl, "Okay, sir, you do realize that in '22 without this war going on and the Straits of
Hormuz being potentially shut down, uh they're back open again or at least partially open, um I said, 'You do know that crude oil was 130 to the barrel and that gasoline was 510 to [clears throat] the gallon, right?'" Yeah. Maybe you want to show me some of your tweets from back then, Carl, when
uh you were so worried about affordability since now it's 390 and we've got the biggest Middle East war ever going on right now. But I doubt if I'll hear back from him, Pete, somehow.
>> [laughter] >> I doubt it as well.
Let's talk about the VIX, shall we? Mhm.
Yeah, when we're looking at the VIX, John, it's it's getting hit pretty good today. Although it's off of the lows that it that we had gotten down to, it's still trading somewhere close to it's in the 25s, but getting closer closer and closer just as you're showing there to 26. So uh 25, not such a bad drop um you know, from where we were. After the
close, it's sitting at the call at somewhere close to about 27.
The S&P move that you're looking for when you're sitting there looking at somewhere where where we are right now is about a 1 and 1/2% move. So um it's still a little inflated. There's still a little emotion going in under what where where we are with the VIX.
Certainly that is a bit of a factor, but interesting to see that we've been here for a little while, John. I think under the right situation this thing is ripe to most likely with good news could get back down underneath 20 in a hurry. But um time will tell because we still have
to have all of the things kind of fall into place to get everybody I think from an emotional standpoint back down and and and start selling some of the premiums that are out there.
All right. Well, um uh I have one from Keltner for us today, Pete, from our prediction markets. And Texas versus Purdue. And as you guys can see there, Purdue is a prohibitive favorite tomorrow, 75%
and about $700,000 have already been wagered. Um I'm going to point out, Pete, these guys beat number three Gonzaga. Um Texas did. So if you're looking for a potential big winner here, I think rather than taking
Purdue to win 25 cents per dollar, I think you should take Texas and risk 25 cents to make 75 cents. But what do I know, right, Pete? Well, and I'm with you, John, because I think this is one of those cases where people got influenced a little bit by by their big
victory, Iowa's or excuse me, Purdue's victory. So they're they're they put them up on the pedestal. Well, there's some talent down there at Texas and I agree with you. I I like the idea of trying to go for the longer shot and going in with Texas for that sort of a a bet. It makes the most sense as far as a
risk reward. I certainly would say that and the talent level with Texas Texas has got some damn good players and they've been around for a little while um you know, starting to establish themselves more and more and more in the framework not just of football, but basketball. So yeah, I totally agree with you, John. I think looking at that,
I I'd get pushed over I think to take Texas. And if you lose, you just lose a little bit, you know, real and fractional. So I like that I like that risk reward.
Yep, it's all about risk reward, folks.
And uh if it was a trade, it's about cutting your losses, but um again, it doesn't make sense from a risk reward standpoint to risk 75 to make 25. It makes sense to risk 25 to win 75. So that's tomorrow. You guys
take a look and see what you think. All right, Pete, Sarepta. These guys have uh you know, a muscular dystrophy uh treatments.
Uh I don't know that it's a cure, but I do know that when the stock climbs like it is right now, it's up 28% I think, it's almost always because of some sort of success they've had um with the testing. Um and hopefully
the tests continue to go well and this very volatile stock um will reflect any victories in that testing very quickly.
But you and I've talked about SRPT a lot in the past, Pete. What do you think of it here? Well, you can see what what true volatility really looks like when you look at this as well, right, John? I mean this is the world of of you know, biotech and medical and therapeutics and all
volatile and it's interesting to see.
Now these guys reported something that was very positive today, obviously, stock up what, 25%? Something very close to that. But the data that they're getting in their phase one, phase two is really encouraging. It's got people pretty excited about that. That's why this stock has taken a nice move to the upside, muscular dystrophy. Um and the
facts that there would be no dose limitations for and they still have the safety um out there in that so those safety concerns feel a lot more comfortable. That's why this thing is moving the way it is to the upside today I think, John, is just the strength and the potential that they've got. Now it still takes away. We always talk about
there's you know what, phase one, phase two, phase three and then you got to go in front of the FDA. Well, these guys are getting through one and two and they are not far away and if things can get continue to go well, that's going to be great for the folks that are suffering from this right now.
Yeah, well then let's let's cross our fingers and maybe even say some prayers for that, Pete. All right, ARM Holdings, A R M.
Um the CEO really has a bullish outlook for the stock, Pete, and that's why it was up 10% in the pre and then it was up 15% when it started trading in the regular hours. Now it's up over 20% Pete. And why is that? Well,
the CEO thinks he can push this thing to 15 billion in annual sales. That would be explosive and obviously the stock is reflecting that optimism right now.
Yeah, and with that optimism, John, I mean some of the numbers that are getting thrown out there. Now I I always wonder how how they can project out quite as far as they are, but they do and they're talking about going out to 2031, John. And here we are in 2026, but they're going out to 2031
and talking about how it could be a 6X of what the 2025 levels have been in terms of the revenue. So, um if indeed that the the CEO's, you know, thoughts are that this is going to get to that level, that could be pretty darn impressive and to your point, generate
15 billion annually in that rev you know, for this new chip. Um that seems like all the right chips are are falling in place right now and these guys are in a really good position. So, let you know, hats off to them. And by the way, you know what their their first customer, their initial customer's going
to be? Meta. So, there's so many things that come go into this whole thing that um people have been talking about Arm Holdings for a while and this move to the upside. I didn't even realize till you just said it, John, that we got up over 20%. Last I looked before we came on, it was up about 18%. So, this is something that momentum is really
starting to move this thing to the upside.
Well, it's been a hot stock ever since it came uh listed back in the United States, Pete, cuz it's not a US company. It's one of the few um in that tech space that's not in fact.
>> Right. All right, let's take a look at Chewy. Um you guys know what they do.
This is pet food and so forth and pet products. Um Pete, uh this is a great example of exactly what you talk about so frequently, which is guidance because everything else virtually that a company does is backwards-looking.
They announced, "This is what we did." Well, it turned out that they missed on rev and they missed on bottom line. So, some of you out there would be saying, "Oh man, it's going to get crushed." Nope.
No, it's not. Because the guidance and what they're going to do going forward, at least projected by them, by the company, um looks so positive that even with a miss on sales and a miss on the bottom line, this one is 12% higher in
uh as we head into the midday session.
And the interesting part about all that, John, you're so right on all of it all of it, but their Q1 guidance was actually not all that strong, either.
But the full year guidance is where Chewy really got everybody really excited because that's where they really pushed it up and they're talking about 13.6 billion to 13.75 billion. Um that's pretty darn nice growth that they're that they're talking about and they're projecting out there for the full year.
So, yeah, when you when you're looking at these things, it's great to see what they did in the previous core quarter, but they want to know what's really going to go on in the future. And even with a little stumble for Q1, with this full year that Chewy's putting out there, uh people are definitely pretty excited about what this thing is doing right
now. It's been up as much as 15%. It's had a really nice run to the upside. I saw that it was pulling back just a little bit, but uh maybe that makes sense because this thing has really really risen. Um and you know what? Q1 is out there, but um as I say, they reported that that's going to be something that's going to be
hit tough to hit those numbers as well.
Not the full year. The full year, they're looking pretty strong.
Well, lastly, Pete, we've got Braze, um which is BRZE.
And I bet a lot of you don't know what they do. They do uh basically data analytics and so forth uh that they can take uh the data from almost any source and analyze it for companies so they can see how they should market products and all the rest. Well, um
they're using AI, of course, aren't we all? Um with a lot of their new product launches and apparently that's going over really well. And that's why this stock is seeing uh year-over-year uh subscription service growth and uh
revenue or sales growth uh that's approaching 750 million dollars. So, these guys are hitting it pretty hard, Pete. Certainly seems like uh a company that we should all probably talk about more as we go forward. Yeah, and you you mentioned one of the words that always makes us kind of sit up a little bit, AI.
>> [laughter] >> You know, artificial intelligence is something that's a big driver. Everybody's been talking about this thing. The enterprise division, John, up 50% on quarterly bookings. You were talking about very very These numbers are are impressive beyond words. Customer base growth nearly 10X. So, yeah, they're kind of
hitting this thing just about right.
[laughter] Yeah. Year-over-year revenue was 100 up from 160 million to 205 million. I would say that this report is pretty solid all the way across the board. And by the way, this thing is was a lot closer to the 52-week low coming in than the 52-week high. At 15 is the
low, they're at now up at to 21 level, but 43 was the 52-week high. So, I I would say you could keep an eye on this one and a very sharp eye on this one because it's got some room still to the upside. I would say based upon what they're putting out there today. This thing certainly has a a great day today,
but I think that they might even have a little bit more into the future.
Yeah, I I I mean, I got to believe they would, Pete. Again, uh taking in data from any source, that's what they say.
Um I think that makes them pretty darn flexible in terms of being able to analyze and see what's really working and what's not. All right. Um let's take a look at uh one Bryson DeChambeau, Pete.
Because Pete and I love the long drive.
Yeah. Um and we love to go out there on the course. I don't like to play around, Pete, but I do like to play scrambles and just to hit the ball. Yeah. Um because the game's too long otherwise for me. And I'm a I I admit I'm a hack, but >> [laughter] >> Pete and I can both strike the ball
pretty darn far. Mhm. But as far as we can hit it, this guy embarrasses everybody. Everybody. He's one of the biggest draws in golf as well. So, if you're familiar with LIV and their war against the PGA and vice versa, uh I think you'll pay attention to this video
and see what is going on right now and why this might be the next really rich golfer. He's wealthy already. He's about to break the bank. Yeah.
>> Bryson DeChambeau is set to get a 500 million dollar contract extension. I I love this guy. once upon a time arch-nemesis, Brooks Koepka. Bryson DeChambeau is LIV's Koepka star. He's the golden child and kind of the only reason people watch LIV. And for all of those reasons, Bryson holds quite possibly the most
amount of leverage any athlete has ever had. And we're not just talking golf.
I'm talking every major sport, basketball, football, baseball, He's so well-known, huh? He asked for whatever he wants and no matter the response, >> And I love the case with him. also, if you like staying up-to-date on golf news like this, make sure you're following That is cool. partner, Brooks Koepka, from the LIV Golf League just a few weeks ago. Bryson DeChambeau and Jon
Rahm are the two superstars left. And with Bryson's contract ending in 2026, it's time for an extension or for him to walk.
>> And currently, [laughter] the extension number floating around is 500 million dollars. 500 million. And even if LIV comes back and says, "No, we're not doing that," he leaves and he does YouTube full-time, which he has clearly said it's a viable option. Or I'm sure the PGA Tour will welcome him back with open arms. But I want to know your
thoughts. Do you think that Bryson DeChambeau gets the 500 million dollar extension? Do you think he goes to YouTube full-time and just plays in the majors? Or No. do you see him back on the PGA [laughter] Tour in 2027? Let me know in the comments.
>> [gasps] >> I'll tell you, it's amazing. And I mean, the money in pro sports is absolutely sometimes just you just shake your head, right, John? I mean, it and it's impressive at the football, NBA, NHL. I mean, you know, you go golf, obviously, baseball. I mean, some of these
uh contracts are just absolutely crazy.
Speaking of golf, this segues perfectly into where we are. Tiger Woods is back, baby. And how cool is that? The guy looks terrific. He's he's come back after having major surgery and you know, back surgery, which, you know, your back in golf is sort of a big deal.
And it's just amazing, John. He's been a coach, he's been a manager, and now he's going to be able to get back out there.
Now, this is a guy with 15 major wins. I mean, not so bad, right? I mean, this He is Tiger Woods. He is the guy who elevated golf when it was starting to, you know, circle the drain and brought it back. And now you've got guys like DeChambeau and others who are pretty darn good. They're colorful, people like
them, they strike the ball, they hit it, they I mean, they're they're amazing at what they do. And like you were saying, you've got to have a hell of a lot of patience in golf, right? I mean, to get to get there, you know, with all those hits and everything else. I mean, and you just have to have one or two bad ones and all
of a sudden it gets in your head, now you got a problem. So, um Tiger said he's going to be playing, but here's the other one, John. Does he play where you're going to be not too long from now? The talk is that he might go to the Masters and he might actually get back in there and and swing it again. I guess it all depends on how things go, but
what do you think about this one? I mean, he hasn't played since he was at the Royal Troon in 2024 as far as playing, you know, competitive at the at the highest level.
I think um if science has allowed his back to heal up enough, Pete, um and taking you know, some of that time in the last, call it, 16, 18 months or whatever.
Yeah, certainly I think he could play.
Now, the question is, of course, can he win? Won't know until he actually hits it and we see how he's hitting it. But, if his back's hanging together and his hips and his legs, you know, allow him to do, uh, the sort of game that he does, which is strike the ball like DeChambeau, you know, he coils up and hits it. But, I've
got a little short video here, Pete, of, uh, uh, something that shows you, uh, just how popular golf is again because of DeChambeau and perhaps even Tiger. These are some golf balls right here that you fill up with liquor.
So, check this out.
That's a good shake of the head.
What a What a fascinatingly smart thing to do in this game of golf?
Well, you know, Tiger and those guys aren't going to do it, Pete, but if you're a hacker like me and they check your bag to see if you've got a bottle of tequila in there, which I've been known to do, um, with this, they wouldn't see it. They see a bunch of golf balls in there, they're like, "Okay, uh, go ahead, sir." And then you're out
there with, you know, who knows, six or seven shots.
Uh, you're you're good for at least the front nine with six or seven shots, right, Pete?
I think it's just great. I I really do.
I'm looking at this just going, "Genius.
And how Why did it take this long to get there?" Right?
It just makes sense. I mean, how many guys are are playing out there, John, that just want to have a little bit of fun? They might want a cocktail, right?
I mean, obviously there's the beer gals driving around and all that kind of stuff. So, yeah, I mean, it's part of the game. It's not part of the PGA game, but it's part of the game. [laughter] Unless Unless there's a couple straddling, uh, there's a couple golfers out there who might have had a cocktail or two out there.
John Daly.
John Daly, maybe.
No, that's phenomenal. That really is great. All right, John, real quick, we'll hit a little bit of the last thing in sports. Spring training, baby. It's basically done. And so, here we are.
They kick off the Major League Baseball, um, tomorrow.
So, what do we think, John? Who Who are some of the the teams that we think really look outstanding again or somebody maybe new, but I don't know. I took I'll tell you what, I I like the Dodgers still. That's the easiest one in the world, right? I mean, let's see, where does Ohtani play? I'll take whoever that he plays for. And he plays for.
So, I I like the Dodgers. Here's a Here's the one that's a little bit off from where everybody else is, though. I like the San Francisco Giants.
I really do. And And a lot of people are are They're a little bit further down, but I I'll tell you what, John, one thing I was looking at during spring training, which is, you know, it's like it's like anything, you know, it's you can't really go off of that as your guide, but I took a little bit of that for my guide. Just looking at it going, "All right, how many runs are they scoring and how many runs are they
giving up?" And I want to see some of the biggest imbalances that I can find.
Well, San Francisco fit into that category. Houston fit into that category. Uh, the Dodgers certainly filled into that. Is it the Yankees, the Braves? So, I think that there's quite a few teams that actually have a really legit shot. Obviously, I think you could look at it and say,
"Well, the TV world would love love love love to see something like Yankees maybe playing the Dodgers or something like that going across the country." But, who do you think actually might win it? Any Any Any thoughts on that?
Toronto.
Really? Who did they Who did they barely lose to, folks? The Dodgers.
Now, so I'd say Toronto's in the mix even with players moving around as players do in all sports these days. But, it's a It's they've got a winning attitude and they came very very close last year. So, I'd say Dodgers, Pete, of course, like you said, Houston,
and, uh, the, uh, Toronto, uh, Blue Jays because the Blue Jays are just a very very good franchise. They're not just a good one time and then they're gone, you know, they're always competitive. You know who
else is? Surprisingly, Tampa's usually pretty damn competitive as well. But, they haven't been of late.
Um, they haven't been able to crack, you know, into the new, uh, you know, $260 million, uh, head count that these guys have now for Major League Baseball winners. But, they could. Yeah. I'll throw out one other name, Texas. Uh, you know, you can't ever sleep on Texas in anything.
You know, we It's It's true. And we talked about it earlier, we were talking about basketball, we were talking about Iowa.
Was it Iowa?
Uh, yeah, Iowa and Texas, right? And I'll tell you what, Texas has got a lot of talent. We were doing Texas, we were talking about it. Yeah, I was going to say. And Iowa, too.
Um, I love Iowa. I just love that the way that he's got that team playing.
Yeah. Yeah, it's it's amazing to see how many Big Ten teams are still hanging around and and playing and and playing very well and all the rest of it. And, you know, there's some favorites out there like Michigan and so forth. But, yeah, I think I think when it looks to base baseball, I think, uh, California's got a couple of them that have a really good shot. And I do like both Texas and
Houston. So, I guess California and Texas, uh, are kind of kind of winning it out for me right now, John.
Well, we've got another Rebel's Edge coming your way tomorrow, folks.
Um, and we've got a, uh, a special webinar tomorrow, too. So, we'll put it up on the show tomorrow to so that you guys know about it, but it's a Rebel Pit show that we're going to be doing tomorrow after the bell. But, uh, tomorrow's regular Rebel Edge, Pete, will be at what time again?
1:00 p.m., but I'm going to jump on one last thing. You were just talking about that. How about How fun is it going to be that trip to Chicago for everybody to be able to get to Chicago and actually go to the trading floors and see how it actually works and all the rest of that.
And that's something that I think it's, uh, April 22nd to the 24th, something like that.
Yep, the VIP party starts 22nd, but the actual in-person on the floor, and there's still a couple seats left, they tell me, folks, 23rd and 24th of April, Cboe Global Markets in Chicago. You can go virtually or you can come in person.
I recommend the in-person because to see that floor while it's still there, um, is special. So, if you're somebody who's trading right now and you'd like to see what it's like down on the floor, by all means, this is, uh, a can't-miss event.
Yep. Yep, such a cool area and such a fun and so much, uh, nostalgia and everything else. I mean, that place is fantastic. I love it. Still I miss it. I miss it still to this day.
>> [laughter] >> Well, so we'll see you tomorrow at 1:00, everybody. Have a great day.

Transcript from the show's YouTube captions; automatic captions may contain errors. Educational content, not investment advice.