Rebels Edge · Mon, May 18, 2026

Oil Panic CRUSHED Stocks… Then Markets Exploded Higher

Summary

Jon and Pete Najarian discuss an intraday stock-market rebound as oil prices retreated from their highs amid uncertainty surrounding Iran. They also review ServiceNow’s outlook, takeover activity involving LiveRamp and major utilities, Bitcoin Depot’s financial distress, and sports topics including baseball payrolls and Aaron Rodgers’ return to Pittsburgh.

Oil fell from roughly $109 to $105 as stocks reversed early losses; the VIX also eased after reaching the 19s.
Oil prediction markets showed competing expectations for prices above $105 and below $95, while the hosts cautioned that supply normalization could take months.
ServiceNow outlined a goal of exceeding $30 billion in annual subscription revenue by 2030; the hosts highlighted bullish options activity and Bank of America’s $130 price target.
Publicis announced a $2.5 billion all-cash bid for LiveRamp. Trading near the stated $38.50 takeover price prompted speculation about another bidder or short covering.
The hosts discussed a proposed $66 billion stock deal involving Dominion and NextEra, noting potential merger obstacles and suggesting existing holders consider trimming exposure.
Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Bank of America and Wells Fargo were highlighted as beneficiaries of strong investment-banking activity.
Bitcoin Depot reportedly fell 71% amid plans for Chapter 11 protection, a 49% first-quarter revenue decline and costly compliance restrictions.
Sports discussion contrasted successful low-payroll MLB teams with higher-spending rivals and examined Aaron Rodgers’ health and offensive-line protection in Pittsburgh.

NOW RAMP D NEE GS JPM BAC WFC BTM

Full transcript

Welcome everybody. It's another week of the Rebels Edge. Today coming to you from Cardone Studio in lovely Aventura, Florida and we're going to be detailing for you why the market turned rather dramatically in the early hours of trading today. We've got that, some
sports prediction markets and stocks on the Rebels Edge.
>> [music] [music] [music] >> Bang.
>> [laughter] >> We got to love this studio. Is this studio great, Grant? You got to give me a lot of credit for this thing. This is outstanding. Awesome. Awesome. Matteo, Geo fabulous. These guys are making the magic happen, folks, and they even got the Market Rebellion up behind us.
>> Yeah, I'm tooting. I'm Jon Najarian. He is Pete Najarian and uh we're going to dive right into macro because that's what we do at the top of the show, but we don't waste a whole half hour on it like some four-letter networks do. We're going to say macro, it's all about oil and Iran. Earlier this morning oil was
up big, Pete, and then it came screaming back down and guess what? When oil came down, market went up. The market was getting smashed pretty good. We were down over 300 points on the Dow. We're down quite a bit on the Nasdaq, the S&P, of course, but all of a sudden we turned. We got all We were all the way up at 109 and now here we are sitting at
about 105 or somewhere close to that.
So, it gives you a little bit of an idea when it's moving and you see oil coming back down, market's going right back up and it looks pretty good right now. What happens with the VIX when they uh oil goes back down, Pete? [laughter] The VIX starts to leak a little bit, too. Yeah.
The VIX has been all over the place this morning and you know what? It's uh it's something that we've been keeping a very close eye on, but it has not been able to get up and over that 20 level now for quite some time. It's risen pretty quickly. Just about 5 days ago we were at 17s, low 17s. Here we are now at about 18 and a half. We got up into the
19s earlier today, but it makes a lot of sense what the VIX is doing right now cuz we are moving. We're moving substantially. So, are we going to get back to 16? Probably not for a while, but uh certainly love to see the way the VIX has been pulling back and pulling back today.
>> Yeah, and it's an indicator of what's going on in the markets, folks.
>> Yeah. Um some people like to call it the fear gauge. We rarely call it the fear >> the fear gauge.
>> Uh but we will say it. It is how much is the market going to swing? And if it's going to swing tight like this, that's one thing. That's a 16. If it's swinging like this, it's going to be like a 30.
Uh Pete, let's talk prediction markets.
>> Yeah, let's do it.
>> Because it feeds right into this, folks, because prediction markets have Take a look at what's going up on the screen.
We've got uh 105. People were betting 67% of the bets were saying, "Hey, it'll be over 105." For now they're right.
What about uh but this goes all the way out, you know, you have to take a look at the full bet, which is the month of May. Yeah. So, if we think it could be below 95, 68% of the folks say they expect it to be below 95. So, there's that yin and yang, that push and pull right now.
>> what we fight with every single day, right? We come in, we look for the price of oil, that's one of the things. We look at the 10-year, that's another thing. We look at the volatility index, that's another thing. But with the predictive markets, John, it's uh you know what? It's it's it's a roll of the dice every day where that's going to be in the the price of oil. Are things going well with Iran? Are they going
poorly with Iran? Are they easing or any of that? You know, those are the things that uh are going to get that moving the the right direction, but it's interesting to see how how excited people are about the the oil maybe getting back under 95. Yeah, and the fact that you know, a majority of the bets right now are that it does get back
below. That doesn't mean they're right yet because they're basically neck and neck over 105 or under 95, but we have more and more money betting on the lower price of oil. But keep in mind it's going to take months to work its way through the whole system, folks, in terms of the refiners and getting it
back down in to a normal supply storage.
>> Yep, because it's supply and demand. And if demand remains at this level, but supply has gone down, prices are going up. That's what's happened. Yeah. All right, ServiceNow. Let's talk about this one because they outlined a plan to surpass 30 billion dollars in annual
subscription revenue by 2030, Pete.
Yeah. And you know what, folks? We did have unusual activity in this one. So, if you paid attention, for instance, just two trading days ago, on the 14th of May, the stock was 89 bucks, and they were betting that the stock would go up
through 105. Well, today it went through 101. Mhm. So, anybody that followed that and was betting with us that the stock was going to go up, it's now up $12 >> [laughter] >> from where it was last Thursday last week, folks. So, yet another example of
unusual option activity.
Boom. Yeah, to the upside. Up about 5%.
It's a it's a really nice move for ServiceNow, and could it go even further? Bank of America says absolutely it certainly could. They're talking about this as a now a buy rating. It's also got a price target of 130. Here we are quite a bit away from 130, so I like what we're seeing here. I think this is a a company that's really doing things
the right way, and because of that they're getting rewarded to the upside.
I I think that Bank of America is actually exactly dead on on this one, John. I think it's a a good move and a time to pivot and they're looking for more upside. Well, then we've got a stock beat that had a bunch of good news today.
>> Yeah. Um in at least good news in some regard because not only did they have some earnings that were pretty spectacular, but they got a bid. Yeah.
From an outside person. I mean, LiveRamp, uh symbol RAMP, is a collaboration technology platform and all of a sudden, uh really unknown to most of us, I guess, Publicis Group comes out and says,
"We'll take you guys down $2.5 billion all cash deal." So, that's a big deal.
>> Right, and they're buying them at the right time, it looks like, because they're absolutely crushing it. I was looking at all their different earnings numbers. Their revenue's up 9% year-over-year. You look over at the the recurring revenue, up 8% year-over-year.
You look at uh retention levels, up 107%. Everywhere you look, record numbers for operating cash flow. So, when you look at this company, you can kind of understand why somebody might want to pick them up and I think they're picking them up at a good deal. Yeah, and it seems, Pete, that LiveRamp also, um the fact that it goes all the way up,
virtually, folks, to where the takeover price is, indicates some people are either A being squeezed pretty hard, that would be the shorts, or uh that they're anticipating maybe there could be another bidder stepping in because maybe they have to up their price a little bit because otherwise, it should
be trading under by probably a buck and a half or so, and instead, it's right up against the takeover price because the takeout price is basically 38 bucks a share, 38.50 a share. It got up there today already.
>> Yeah, it's absolutely amazing and that is rare. Just so everybody knows, it's very rare that that get right up to that number. Usually, you're down a little bit, but you've spiked up substantially to the upside, but you usually don't get to there until it's actually going to basically get done. The transactions are going to get done. So, this one's definitely got somebody else out there,
I think, looking around. And you can see why. And that's why they made it an all-cash deal, too, folks. Because if you do part of it in stock and part of it in cash, then the competitor, if there is a competitor out there, could say, "Yeah, but what if their stock goes down?" Right. You're going to get less money. If it's 2.5 billion dollars all
cash, that's pretty much uh >> [laughter] >> spendable by anybody then, as soon as you get it.
>> All right. Let's talk about Dominion.
Oh, yeah. Dominion uh and NEE, which is NextEra Energy. Um you guys might be familiar with NextEra because they're one of the largest providers of energy to run data centers on the East Coast of the United States.
>> Yeah. So, uh this combination, putting these two together, would be a 66 billion-dollar uh stock deal. That's a big deal, and it's, you know, I guess a merger Monday again, people.
>> Yeah, this they're going crazy. And And uh what I really like, John, is, you know, we talk about the financials all the time, and as soon as you start to say, "All right, well, they they have this deal." And it's a pretty damn big deal. So, um who's involved? I've got them.
Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo. There's a reason why we point these out all the time to people because, quite honestly, this is really amazing, and these guys are going to do very, very well. They continue the investment banking side of the financials is absolutely crushing it.
They continue to crush it. It's been going on for a few years now, and it looks like they're they're still got plenty of gas in the tank, cuz these guys are going up, up, up. Yep. And the combination, they say, is up to 116 billion dollars if this deal would be.
And uh Dominion's really big where we are right down here in Florida, NextEra up there in Virginia and on the East Coast. So, this puts together a monstrous piece.
Could there be some issues that keep them from merging? There could be. And that's why, you know, when you see a a deal like this and you see them moving up as fast as they've moved up, if you had some you might want to take a little bit off the table just in case.
All right, one more Pete, our favorite.
>> [laughter] >> Bitcoin Depot. I mean, the name itself just sounds fantastic, right?
>> [laughter] >> They should call it Bitcoin Dump.
>> Yes, because unfortunately for these guys, it is dumping. It is. What was the stock last July? 48 bucks. All right.
It closed last week, folks, Friday, the last trading day of the week at a little over $2, I think. And today it's way under a buck.
Because they're going to have to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
They say that the cost of compliance as well as some of the transaction restrictions in certain states. What do they do? They run a Bitcoin ATM network.
So, I mean, Bitcoin Depot might not be around much longer. Maybe somebody buys the assets. In fact, Pete and I were talking to one of the big ATM operators down here in Florida. And we were saying, maybe we should help you do this deal. We've got an investment bank.
We should help this deal. Maybe you take these guys on. But, yeah, that doesn't happen like that. When they file for Chapter 11, that means a lot of the people that they owe money to and so forth, they get to make their case before a judge and so forth.
So, it's not like it happens overnight.
But, this could be uh, Bitcoin Depot could be uh, going away as far as that particular company. But, what they do and finding ways to deal with the compliance and with the transaction restrictions in certain states cuz like California, you can't run a Bitcoin ATM in California, right? There are a bunch
of other states that won't let you either. But, uh, we'll keep our eye on this story, folks. Symbol BTM, Bitcoin Depot. It's down 71% today. I mean, just to give you a little example of that. And the revenue's down 49% um, year-over-year for Q1. So, just a lot of problems these poor guys
unfortunately. I mean, we kind of laughed about the the just the movement just cuz it's so crazy to be a $48 stock in the same year that you actually get underneath a dollar. So, um, it's unfortunate. It's something they're they've they had to shut down 9,000 of those machines that they run, John. So, there's a lot to this story.
It's unfortunate and um, you know, hopefully there's something good that can come out of this thing, but I don't see what it is right now. Right. And they also have a mobile app, folks. But, again, in certain jurisdictions it's got to be blocked and then they've got to prove compliance and all the rest of it and it just gets, you know, really,
really expensive even if you're taking somewhere between 6 and 9% on transactions, which many in the Bitcoin, uh, ATM networks do. Right.
>> All right.
Uh, Pete, let's talk about a little sports. Um, Pete always sends me, uh, his favorites and today it seems like a lot of baseball to me, Pete.
>> A lot of baseball. We were talking about Major League Baseball and it's just such an interesting thing because you look at the NFL and you look at the dollars and essentially most of of the of the teams, uh, when you look at the payroll because there is a cap and everything else, you know what? They're they're fairly close to one another, right? Where I'm looking
at Tampa right now. Now, the Tampa the Rays, uh, the third lowest payroll in all of Major League Baseball. Do you know where they sit? Well, they they sit at the very top of the the American League East, on top of the New York Yankees, who by the way, their their
numbers, John, on their payroll, 333 million is what the Yankees are worth.
Meanwhile, Tampa's worth 88 billion in terms of the payroll. So, gives you a little bit of an idea of you can try to buy a team, you can try to create a team. The Dodgers are doing a really good job with their work on that. But, I'll tell you what, to see what's going on with Tampa and Cleveland, by the way, Cleveland's another one, 80
million-dollar payroll, and they're competitive, they're at the very top of the American League Central division.
So, it just shows you you can try your very best, you can spend all the money, but you know what? If you have a good GM and somebody who actually can help build the team, that makes a whole lot different than the than the folks that are just spewing out money to everybody.
It's It's something we see in Major League Baseball all the time, John, and I think it's it's just sort of shocking to look to see what's going on this year. I mean, we're not that deep into the year. We're like, what, 40, 50 games into the season? So, we still got quite a few games to go, but the fact that they're both doing as well as they are doing right now, Cleveland and Tampa,
says a lot about the team, how the team is built, and and all the rest of it, because it is amazing just to think about the fact that the Yankees and some of the rest of them. I'll tell you what, you look over at what's going on out in LA with the Dodgers. I mean, that payroll's outrageous. Yeah. Well, the
median, I looked it up, folks, the median's 165 million. Mhm. Um and so, like Pete described, Miami Marlins, Cleveland uh Guardians, don't know why, but yeah, that's the name.
Uh Chicago White Sox were named the Black Sox when they did that scandal, but nonetheless, um they're all under 90.
Um, and then you've got teams like Tampa that are even lower than that and yet leading the league. Um, but, uh, it's it's all about, Pete, that these teams don't share TV revenue. Uh, in other words, the Mets and the Yankees and the Dodgers, they have great
television deals and it's not like, oh, it's with ABC, it's with CBS, it's with, um, ESPN. No, they have their own networks.
Um, and just like the Big Ten Network in, uh, college sports and so forth or the SEC Network. So, if you have your own network and you don't share revenue, um, from that, this is one of the only sports, um, that does that, folks, Major League Baseball, MLB. And I don't know
how sustainable that is, Pete, except for the fact that occasionally Tampa Bay or, uh, one of these other teams like maybe the Guardians or whoever, uh, can actually jump up and compete with somebody spending 300 million when they're only spending, only, in air quotes, only spending 60
million whatever.
>> Right. It's amazing. It is amazing. All right, we're going to do a little bit of football because everybody has been waiting for this day. It finally happened. We've got Aaron Rodgers signed up with the Pittsburgh Steelers. I think it was very predictable. We all probably think that.
Uh, they got Mike McCarthy back at as the head coach. He played for him in Green Bay. I think they got a Super Bowl together. This is going to be Aaron's 22nd year in the NFL, John. So, um, I'm thinking this is going to truly be his last year unless it just goes magically for him and everybody's healthy and everything else, but we'll
have to see, but he's got to stay healthy, number one, and they needed a quarterback with the experience that he's got. They don't have that on the roster. They've got some good quarterbacks, but they need to have a lot more reps and maybe if they can get some games where they're they're doing very well with the Steelers, he's going to be able to do that. Let them get some of those reps. But I just I'm curious of
this, John. What do you think? Does he Is he able to stay healthy? I think what what's what stood out to me and you and I were talking about it earlier was that he only got sacked 30 times last year.
And I say only because when you look at a lot of the teams that don't have a good offensive line, 50 sacks, 55 sacks, 60 sacks. I mean, these quarterbacks are getting killed out there. And they've done a really, really good job of protecting Aaron Rodgers. So, I think that was helpful. I think they they moved up their offensive line even a few
more steps higher. So, I think that's going to be helpful, too. That helps.
And he's got some good receivers, tight ends, running backs, and all of it. So, I think it was always predictable he'd be back, but I just hope the guy can stay healthy because he's a great guy.
He's great for for the NFL, I think. And what do you think, John? Can he stay healthy because this is not a league for people that are over 40 years old.
>> No. Um yeah, they got to give him protection. Um the guy has made a fortune. I mean, he made 300 million, folks, while he was a Green Bay Packer.
Then he made 75 million in two seasons, one of which he only played what, four snaps or three snaps or whatever.
>> [laughter] >> Unfortunately, again, he didn't sit out.
He was forced out when he had that Achilles tendon snap. But so, collectively, if you count this season, 14 and a half million or whatever he's getting paid on a one-year deal, he's up over 410, 420 million in earnings, Pete.
Which is phenomenal for him. That's only on field. That doesn't take into account any of the ads he did for State Farm or any of the other stuff he might do.
But to your point, he needs offensive line help. And if they give it to him this year, he could have a great year.
He Like you said, they only got sacked 30 times last year, so it wasn't like when Caleb Williams with the Bears got 69 sacks in his rookie year.
Um I think Aaron could make it through the season even [clears throat] as a 40-year-old quarterback. Yeah. But, um I think it's going to be uh one and done for Aaron on this one.
>> so, too. I think so, too. I think he's I think he sees the end of this course going, and I think that's why he wanted to wait as long as he did. He also wanted to do that a couple more trips to the sports shows and all the rest of that.
But, Aaron's a great guy. He's actually a very generous guy, and so we we we like him for that reason and a Cal Golden Bear. We're huge fans of the Bears with a lot of family members, dad, brothers, everything playing football there, so uh we like what Aaron's doing, but I think this is going to be the last year, so if he's coming through your city, you ought to go and watch when the Steelers are playing. Should be fun. Yeah. And
the Steelers did a lot to make the team better this Yeah, they did. In the draft.
>> They did. Some people even have them up near the top as far as uh the acquisitions they made including in free agency, but uh yeah, we'll see. Um I I think uh Pat McAfee will have a lot to say about [laughter] that on his fabulous show.
All right. Well, uh from wonderful Cardone Studios here in South Florida, Florida, folks. We were down here for the 10X Wealth Con, uh which went on over the weekend. Fabulous time, and uh we will certainly be back here soon. Oh, yeah.
And we always appreciate you guys tuning in. So, what time are we back tomorrow, Pete? We're going to be here at 1:00 Eastern time, John. But, not here.
>> [laughter] >> He'll be up there somewhere, and I'll be down there somewhere.
Tomorrow, 1:00 p.m. Eastern time. See you then, folks.
>> [music]
>> I'm sorry.

Transcript from the show's YouTube captions; automatic captions may contain errors. Educational content, not investment advice.