Rebels Edge · Tue, Jul 21, 2026
Oil, Volatility & Fertilizer Stocks — The Market Chain Reaction
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The hosts discuss how oil supply disruptions and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz are driving crude prices, market volatility, and fertilizer stocks despite a planned IEA reserve release. They also review Firefly Aerospace’s successful mission, weakness in Netscope after earnings, and Dollar General’s cautious guidance, emphasizing options activity and consumer trade-down trends.
- The announced release of 400 million barrels of oil failed to prevent renewed crude-price gains.
- The hosts link elevated VIX readings to oil-related uncertainty and suggest volatility could ease.
- Uncertainty over potential escorts for commercial ships through Hormuz is contributing to market swings.
- Fertilizer supply concerns lifted CF, Mosaic, and Nutrien; the hosts highlighted unusual options activity in CF and Mosaic.
- Firefly Aerospace rose about 15% following a successful mission, with its backlog supporting the long-term bullish discussion.
- Netscope fell roughly 24% after disappointing results; both hosts preferred waiting for evidence of improvement.
- Dollar General beat quarterly earnings expectations but fell on weaker guidance; both hosts viewed consumer trade-down behavior as supportive.
- The hosts emphasized following observed market action and options flows rather than trading solely on preconceived narratives.
Full transcript
Rebels, the IEA agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil to address the supply disruption, but it wasn't enough.
Find out why crude is rising and more today.
>> [music] [music] >> All right. All right. Here we got it. We got it going, man. It's the Rebel's Edge. I got my man Justin Nugent.
Justin, how you doing in Hawaii, man?
Are you making me jealous?
>> I'm You know, you might be. It's been raining for 2 days and it's going to rain into the weekend, but I like the rain, so I don't mind.
>> [laughter] >> If I'm going to Hawaii, I don't want it to rain. That's the one thing I don't want to have happen.
>> [laughter] >> And it is beautiful. Man, it's it's beautiful. You You live in God's country. All right, let's start with a little bit of macro and what we're seeing in the macro world right now.
It's all about oil. I mean, it's it just is. When we look at these markets right now and the the big moves that we've had in the the ups and downs have absolutely created a lot of folks to uh start pulling out their hair. I don't have hair to pull out, so I don't have to worry about that, but I'll tell you uh the surge in price of crude oil is
definitely influencing the markets and influencing volatility, which we'll get into in just a second.
>> Yeah, absolutely. Uh you know, create the market that you have, not the market that you think you should have, right?
You can try and fade crude here or you can just wait for some paper before you actually try and make some activity to the downside.
>> Yep.
Well, as far as the volatility index, it's interesting because we spiked up Monday. We got to 35, right? And then all of a sudden Tuesday comes around.
And by the way, oil was 119 at for about that long, maybe a quarter of a second, but nonetheless, had a heck of a nice bounce to the upside. Um we immediately Tuesday Tuesday pulled back and all of a sudden the volatility index was back towards 22, 23, something like that. Oil had gotten all the way back towards 80.
Uh Wednesday, we get a little bit more volatility, just yesterday, 24, 25 is where we were there. Well, what does that mean? It means that crude is uh is obviously moving back up again.
That's why that volatility is moving back up again. And call it 85, 88. And then today, you come in and you see volatility at 25. I immediately said, "Well, we must be close to 90, maybe even a little bit more." That's exactly what we're seeing. Volatility is there and volatility is being moved around right now by the price of crude and the
nervousness that people have, all the different influences, everything that goes in and what crude actually does um is certainly a factor. Uh so, that's what I'm seeing in the volatility index today. And right now, call it 25, 27.
You know, a lot of people would have would have been probably should have expected it to be even higher, but the reality is when you look at the S&P 500, you know, how what our percentage is on on the move to the downside? It's 1%, which basically correlates to a 16 VIX.
So, that gives you a little idea of why even up at 25, it's probably a little overpriced, but there is that fear factor.
>> Yeah, I mean, you know, at 2630, which is where we're at now, you're looking at a average 1.64% move. Now, I know these are volatile days, but is it that level of volatility and can that be sustained? And and I completely agree with you, Pete. I think that you see volatility this high, you just kind of wait for it to come down.
That's what I would expect. But you're right that it's tied to oil and what oil is tied to are these uh let's pull up that Polymarket graphic.
The notion that maybe we'll start escorting commercial ships through Hormuz. You're seeing this Polymarket graphic here. 32% odds that we start by March 31st. If you would have seen this graphic just yesterday, this would have been higher for about 2 minutes because Energy Secretary Chris Wright uh tweeted, "Hey, we just did that." And
then he deleted the tweet and apparently we didn't. Now, were we doing it in secret? Were we just mistaken? Who knows, but certainly shook around the markets a little bit when it happened.
>> Yeah, absolutely. Great coverage on that, man. That's fantastic. All right, let's just jump into our big four stocks that we've got coming up in front of us right now. Firefly Aerospace.
A really interesting stock. We've talked about this one before here on the Rebel's Edge. It's pretty interesting.
Um they have that stairway not to heaven, but to seven and their mission that they've got.
Um the problem is about five months ago they had a major issue, right? In the pre-launch and the the explosion and that that would that really was uh not great for Firefly. But, today or recently it became flawless and uh they they did what they needed to do, they delivered the way they needed to do
and and Lockheed Martin and others are very very happy. The stock up about 15%.
It's really an impressive performance that they put on and they were able to turn something that was very negative not that terribly long ago into something pretty positive and that's why we're seeing that stock today moving up about 15%. What do you think about this one?
>> Uh actually, other than Planet Labs, I would say that uh Fly is probably the next most interesting space-related name for me, which is crazy because they're down from 7380 at the high to 2416 right now. I just think there's a huge opportunity and here's why. Something no one talks about when we look at all these different space stocks is the
backlog. Part of the reason why Oracle rose so much earlier this week on their earnings is their massive backlog. Well, other than Rocket Lab, Firefly has the second largest backlog of any of these popular space stocks, ASTS, PL, and all the others included. So, I like the name a lot and regardless of some of these issues, if you're willing to go
long-term on something like this, I think growth recovers, this probably recovers pretty hard.
>> Yeah, absolutely. By the way, talk about the Straits of Hormuz and everybody talks about oil, right? It's not just about oil. How about this storyline about the fertilizers? And I'm talking about CF, I'm talking about Mosaic, I'm talking about Nutrien, all of these and they aren't going to be able to get out
as much as they would like and what is that moving for the stocks? Well, you know, that a little bit less, some of the prices going higher and suddenly we're looking at CF up 10%. We're looking at Mosaic up about 11%. We're looking at Nutrien with a nice 4 or 5% move to the upside. So, there's a lot
going on here. I think that you know, not everybody's thinking through all the different things that are happening, but with the fertilizer storage and the the effect that that's going to have on ag prices later on and and quite frankly, think about it. We're basically very close to spring, right? It's time to start, you know, plowing those fields
and throwing in a little fertilizer fertilizer and all the rest. So, this is something that I think not everybody's thinking about when they're talking about the Straits of Hormuz and all of what's moved out there. Everybody thinks, well, it's just oil. That's all it is. No, it's a heck of a lot more than just oil. So, interesting to see those moving the way they are and I would say to people I've seen some
unusual option activity in some of these names and I I would say keep a close eye on some of these. We've seen it in Mosaic, we've absolutely seen it in CF as well and I think some some of the folks who who participated in that are probably feeling pretty good today.
>> Yeah, you know, someone was complaining to me the other day and I I won't, you know, somebody was just saying, "Hey, how could you be buying up Venom here and and you know, talking about these fertilizer stocks?" Which shout out to Chris Picor, he originally brought these fertilizer stocks to my attention on the cocktail hour. Amazing work that he does in finding these pieces of fuel away.
And I just said, "Man, look, the news is the news, that's great. I know that maybe someone's going to do an offering or something, but all we're doing is following the smart money. Somebody went out and bought this, so we bought it.
That's it. There's no more needed, and look at that. Here they are popping here regardless of any sort of, you know, game theory that someone was trying to do on these. It doesn't matter. These stocks are moving. Somebody came out, they bought, you know, maybe the January 2027 calls in CF at 116. All right, stock's now at 128. They're coming out, they're buying the March calls. Those
are a lot closer in time. Okay, well, trade the market that you have, trade the UOA that you have, not what you think you should have, cuz these guys have great information. And when you do that, then you maybe avoid some of these other harder hit software names, like maybe the one that we're about to discuss in Netscope.
>> Yeah, and let's jump on this Netscope.
It's a cybersecurity blah blah blah. You go through this whole thing, and were they Did they do what they needed to do?
Apparently not. Apparently, the results were a bit disappointing because all you've got to do is see the reaction of that stock, which is down Well, it was down 20% last I looked just a moment ago, down 24%. The stock is getting pounded pretty good. Um RBC still likes it. Um which you can kind of understand
that, I guess, although you I'd be a little bit nervous.
But they still like it, but they changed the price target. The price target was at 19. They've pulled it all the way back to 14. Well, they might pull it back one more time because the stock's getting beat up pretty good today, and down 24%, and and you put up results that were a little bit disappointing to some degree. Um
at least that's the interpretation.
I'd say, you know what? Um this one for me would probably be hands-off for now.
And and and wait for this to start show me that you can actually do something that's going to be a lot more profitable into the future, which we haven't seen so far, but um that's the way I'd view Netscope.
>> Completely agree. You know, everybody wants to buy the dip, and that's good, but what you want to buy the dip in is something that's starting to do exactly what you said. Show me that you're working. There's no problem in buying the dip at the not dead bottom. It's a lot easier to do that once we get that confirmation than bowling buying the tip
of a falling knife. So, completely completely agree. Let's hit our last one in Dollar General. What do you think of this name?
>> Yeah, Dollar General's I think it's pretty darn interesting because of the fact that you come out and you go, why is this stock down at all? I why isn't this thing up like 5, 10%, maybe 15%?
This is what they reported. Their Q4, they crushed on their earnings. They put up a $1.93. $1.93.
They were looking for a buck 64. Now, that is another beat and this is something we've talked about throughout the earning season and the last few earning seasons, which is people have to acknowledge the fact that these earnings generally have been absolutely crushing it. Now, here's where the problem comes in and it came in as a problem for
Dollar General. The guidance. The guidance that they put out there, they put out this guidance and they about the earnings and it was a pretty decent drop from what they what they had already had out there. So, that's a bit of a problem. That's a bit of a stumble and that's why the stock is down 6, 7%, wherever it is right now. Although, I
like the fact that we are seeing a little bit of a lift. This is one of those names where on the dip, I like the stock because I think they're going to come out again and beat the earnings.
Even though they disappointed the way they they people are still involved in this trade down. And I don't know, you know, if enough people fully comprehend this whole thing. Why is why is Target still kind of flailing around and yet Walmart's been one of these names that just continuously seems to be going in
the right direction. Yeah, there's some pullbacks, but overall, they have more folks there than they have had in the past. All you got to do is go to the and look into the the the the parking lot and you'll see the place is packed.
And if you go there at night and it's not as busy, look at all the oil marks that are left in the in the cement BECAUSE IT'S BEEN PACKED.
SO, I don't think people fully recognize that often times and I think in the case of Dollar General, I would say this, next quarter, they're going to beat what they're disappointing right now, they're going to beat on that and then it's going to be a factor of but are they going to do better into the future and they can tell that they're going to be able to do that then. But right now,
that's what the pressure is for Dollar Dollar General.
>> Yeah, and I agree and so Dollar General's popping a little bit right now. I mean, they're not green yet, but they opened at about 1:30. Now they're at about 1:40. That's a pretty decent pop. I agree that they're kind of sandbagging that guidance a little bit.
I think a lot of people are maybe just unsure if maybe we're going to have a really great economy next quarter or maybe it's going to suck and it's probably why they're involved in this or why they're questioning this this trade down, but I agree with you. I think people do this, they realize that a a lot of the stuff they get is actually the same stuff from Dollar General,
right? A lot of the stuff that maybe they buy in furniture, right? They were getting it from from RH and then they end up getting cheaper furniture and they're like, you know, it's not that much worse. You look at Wayfair compared to RH today. Well, Wayfair's up 4%, RH is down 4%. You'll get RH over the past month is down 31%.
Wayfair is only down 5%. So, you look at these tradeoffs like you said with Target and Walmart, Wayfair and RH, you look at it with anything, the cheap one and the less cheap one and you say, "Hey, okay. Consumers are trading down.
It's not even necessarily because they can't afford the more expensive thing." They just found out that they're comfortable with the less expensive thing, I think. So, I like Dollar General, too.
>> Yeah, it's gotten sticky, right? I mean, they they go there and all of a sudden they go, "You You this isn't so bad." >> [laughter] >> Matter of fact, I kind of like saving a little bit of money when I go over there. So, you know what? So, it's going to have to make the the competitors that much better into the future if they're going to want to compete. All right.
Well, those are our four stocks. We're going to have two sports, but we got to start off with this one because this is a pretty amazing thing. This guy the number of shots, everything that goes into it, but this 83 points in the game That's That's just outrageous.
>> [laughter] >> That's a lot of points.
>> I mean, all the different shooting that went on, all the different, you know, shooting from all different levels including obviously free throws and so forth, but just unbelievable to see because 83 points, there's a lot of teams that score 83 points in a game in the NBA, let alone one guy.
>> [laughter] >> So, that's kind of fun just to check that whole thing out. All right.
I've got two sports that are really one, but we'll we'll we'll we'll separate them into two. So, John and I were talking about this a little bit yesterday and we were talking about free agency and what's been going on in the NFL and that's a really big deal. And the Raiders this past week had the strangest thing happen where they made a trade,
but the person that they were trading this big defensive end who's very very good, one of the best in the business or whatever, um failed the the physical, which was ridiculous. And I'll tell you what, I think it puts a black eye on Baltimore for what they did because they backed out. And the reason they backed out was they apparently probably got a little
scared because they had two first-round draft picks going to uh the Las Vegas Raiders and that they were getting the player, right? So, the whole thing is just kind of strange the way it unfolded because they they they backed out of it and then they went and grabbed another defensive end who's
a free agent who is probably equal to their the guy that they grabbed, but they didn't have to give any draft picks. So, they they saved a lot, but I'll tell you what, that's backing out of a trade that basically you shook hands and said we're going to do it. The only thing left is to check out this guy's knee, which by the way, he had some meniscus surgery, which is nothing.
I had meniscus surgery on a Monday and I played on a Saturday. I mean, it's it's a ridiculous thing that that that's what it was. If it was an Achilles, like your you know, something like that or an ACL, that's a little bit of a different story, but here's what I got for you.
Who Who had the best free agency so far?
Not that it's over necessarily, but who's really done a great job? The same team that got screwed on that deal with Baltimore, the Raiders. If you go across this, they got the best center in football or second best, some people say he's the second best. They paid him a lot of money, but you know what? They're also going to draft Fernando Mendoza
from Indiana, Heisman Trophy winner, great quarterback, big, tall, 6'5, 230-lb guy who can launch the ball. So, when you're going to draft quarterback, you need a better offensive line than the offensive line they had last year.
So, they got a lot better with this center. Then they got two linebackers, something they needed. They got two linebackers who can run, they can pass rush, and they can pretty much do it all. They also picked up a cornerback, which is really a big deal because everybody's always looking for a corner that can run, but also can make some tackles. And they also got another wide
receiver just to make their wide receivers even that much more explosive.
So, I'm looking at everybody and how they moved, how they shifted around, and all the rest of this, and there's still a lot of players to be picked up.
Raiders, I think had the very best. But, um I don't know if you want anything on that one, but the the other side of it that I had was who had the worst >> [laughter] >> free agent signing as of last night.
And that was the Kansas City Chiefs. The Kansas City Chiefs, I don't know what in the hell they were thinking. But, they came out and in their free agency, they lose not one, but two cornerbacks, which are very important position in the NFL because everybody likes to sling the ball around. They all want to throw it.
There's a comeback in running the football, but basically, you know what? If you're throwing the football, you better have some good cornerbacks back there to try to stop them. Well, they had two quarterbacks that are now playing in LA because they're gone and they went to the Los Angeles Rams. So, that's not so good. Then, they got a safety, probably one of the best safeties in the NFL
right now, and he just went to the Cincinnati Bengals. You did get a running back if if if you're looking for that, but that's also a a bit of a problem. They picked They lost another linebacker. That's not such a great thing. And they lost their right tackle, who's this giant Jawaan Taylor kid, who who protects, uh, you know, their
quarterback. So, I just sit there and I go, "What in the world is Kansas City doing?" And by the way, congratulations to the Raiders and what they've been able to do. What do you think about this whole thing? Maybe free agency alone is where you'd go cuz I know you're a money guy, so tell me this.
Do you Are you amazed at the amount of money that's been going in to the football players? I mean, the center that we were just talking about signed a 3-year $81 million contract for a center.
>> [laughter] >> Just Just to put a little perspective on that, I think the next best price for a center is something closer to like 3 years and 50 million. So, [laughter] he's he's done He's pretty much dwarfed what these other guys are doing as far as salary and everything else, but that
If you've got the money, you can s- sling it around, man. It's unbelievable.
>> You know, and it it's I think it's surprising from a dollar value, but I don't know that it's it's unwarranted or, uh, or surprising when you really think about how much money these companies are making, how much money the NFL is making, how much money these teams are worth. You're starting to see like jeez, what was it like the Knicks is now like a publicly tradable ticker
or something? Maybe I'm crazy, but I think I saw that being a a news headline somewhere. And you think about it and you're like, "Okay, well, these guys are, you know, risking life and limb." As you know better than I or anybody else, cuz you were on the field. Uh and and really like causing potential detriment to their body and and risking all these sorts of things. So, I mean,
there's there's an argument that it's it's super fair and and warranted. As much as everybody wants to get out there and be like, "Oh, I can't believe these athletes are paid so much money." It's like, well, it kind of kind of makes sense, you know? Where else are you going to It's not like you go to uh you know, your job at the office and you're risking, you know, a concussion every >> [laughter]
>> No, you're right. It It is amazing. I think I think you're 100% right. And I will tell you this, this off season I have not remembered an off season like this one in terms of 26- and 27-year-old guys walking away from the game. Saying, "You know what? It's been great. I feel
really good. My head's really good.
See you later. I made enough money that I'll I'll do well in life." The coolest storyline that I saw recently in the NFL and then we can break out, but the coolest one was one of the guys for the Buffalo Bills. I think he might be a center or or a guard, but regardless, an offensive lineman. And he took less money than they were willing to offer
him.
And they they they were like, "Well, why why do you want less?" And he he basically said, "Shoot, man, I love where I am. And you know what? If I blow through $16 million, I'm doing something wrong. Because, you know what? That's a lot of money." And it's like, "God, this guy's got cool perspective." I mean, it really is great. I'm sure his wife's like, "Take
whatever you can get." >> [laughter] >> But but it was it was it was kind of interesting because, you know, it just shows you that there's a lot of guys out there that fully appreciate what they're doing and how much money they truly are making. And I think this guy's just amazing and he wanted to stay with the Buffalo Bills. So, he did. He's got this
nice contract. Not so bad. It's not huge, but it's big enough for him. Says a lot about who he is and and what kind of person he is.
Well, thank you so much for stepping in late. I mean, I know I didn't get a hold of you till till I was talking to John and John was saying, "Hey, I can't make it." I said, "You know what? I know the first person I'm going to call, so it's you." Always appreciate it, man. It's always great and um next time he can't do it, you're on the list at the top of the list again.
>> Hell yeah.
>> Have a good day of trading, man.
>> Yep. See you guys.
>> [music]
Transcript from the show's YouTube captions; automatic captions may contain errors. Educational content, not investment advice.