Rebels Edge · Wed, Apr 29, 2026
The Fed Decision Is OBVIOUS… But These Stocks Just Shocked the Market
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The hosts expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady and argue that Powell’s remarks and major technology earnings are more consequential than the decision itself. They review strong results and sharp share-price gains at Seagate, NXP Semiconductors, and Bloom Energy, contrasting those moves with Robinhood’s decline amid weaker cryptocurrency revenue.
- The hosts view a Fed pause as fully priced in, while warning that Powell’s press conference could trigger volatility.
- They cite Societe Generale research showing forward profit estimates rising roughly $600 billion, or 12%, over four months.
- Google, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft earnings are highlighted as upcoming market catalysts; the VIX is trading around 18.
- Seagate reports earnings and revenue beats, strong guidance, and approximately 47% gross margins, with shares up around 16%.
- NXP Semiconductors reaches a 52-week high following strong results and guidance, with shares reportedly up about 25%.
- Bloom Energy rises roughly 22% after reporting 130% year-over-year revenue growth and an outlook above expectations; the hosts emphasize demand for on-site data-center power.
- Robinhood falls about 13% as cryptocurrency revenue drops 47%; the hosts suggest changed day-trading rules could eventually support trading volumes.
Full transcript
Traders await the Fed decision. Um, that'd be like awaiting whether or not the sun's going to come up tomorrow, folks. I can tell you right now if the sun's going to come up tomorrow, and the answer is yes. And I can also tell you about the Fed decision, and we'll share that with you ahead of
the Fed decision on today's Rebel's Edge.
>> [music] [music] >> I figure we might as well start with that today, Pete. I [laughter] mean, the Fed decision.
We'll help people so you guys don't have to be glued to whatever, a four-letter network, a three-letter network, or whatever. You don't have to be glued to it because right now, with 100% certainty, Pete is going to tell us what the Fed
decision is because he's got a crystal ball. Pete, what is it? It's really tough to figure this whole thing out, John, but I I will say I'll go out on a limb.
THEY'RE GOING TO PAUSE.
>> [laughter] >> ON THE NOSE.
IT'S LIKE, OKAY, it's been 100% on Polymarket. It's been 100% on the CME Fed Tool. For who how long, Pete? And yet they're saying, "Well, traders await the Fed decision." Well, they might be awaiting Powell's last
press conference, but they ain't awaiting the decision. And if they are, they are the dumbest SOBs I've ever heard of, Pete, because it's pretty damn clear what the decision is, and it was a month ago.
>> [laughter] >> Well, and I will say this on top of all of that, John. When when it comes to him getting up there, it's a little bit less about the pause or or a you know, maybe a hike or maybe a cut. Who knows, but it is a pause. But all that being said, I'd like to see him take a nail
pound that nail on the top of his feet so he doesn't put them in his mouth because as long as he could do that, maybe things will be a little bit better after they do pause, John. Otherwise, he's going to put his foot in his mouth because he's going to go up way too long and answer way too many questions and make the mistake of saying something that's going to cause the market to fall
apart. That's what That's what worries me.
Yeah, and here's the one thing that he could do, folks. So, save this and play this after he does this because here's the one thing he'll do, Pete. He'll say, "I ain't leaving." HE'LL DO THE SAME thing that Leonardo DiCaprio did
when he was playing The Wolf of Wall Street. And that is, "I ain't leaving." And everybody cheers except in this case, everybody go crazy because his term is up in May. We're this close to May right now, Pete. So, if he says, "I'm not leaving because Kevin Warsh hasn't been approved yet."
>> [laughter] >> That would give the market some turmoil, but let's hope that's not what happens.
But I'm saying >> [laughter] >> if it happens, you heard it here first.
All right, Pete. Let's dive into macro.
Societe Generale, their quantitative strategist and that's from The Big Short by the way, Pete, with Ryan Gosling where he says, "THIS IS MY QUANTITATIVE.
LOOK AT HIM." >> [laughter] >> FANTASTIC.
ANYWAY, the quantitative strategy uh, that is laid out by Andrew Lapthorne is that he says 12-month forward profits are now around 600 billion higher than they were 4 months ago, before the war started, Pete. Mhm. That's a 12%
increase. In other words, during the war, with everybody running around like their hair was on fire, um, they're saying it's a 12% increase, the larger largest upward revision outside of a post-recession recovery in history.
During the war.
So, for all of you folks that get so worried, um, and pull your money out of the market and hurt yourselves financially by doing that, don't do that. Right.
>> This is from the head of Societe Generale, their quantitative strategist, just said, "Hey, forward profits are up 600 billion dollars over 4 months ago, and we're at record highs." So, what does that tell you, Pete? That was what I was going to point out, is and this is all in the midst of having record highs.
So, you know, that that kind of says it all. I'll just go in a different direction real quick, John, for the macro. And the macro for me is what's going to happen with all these earnings tonight, because this is a big night for for earnings, especially anything in the world of tech. I mean, we've got Google, we got Amazon, we got
Meta, we got Microsoft, and we have some in the healthcare world, too, not as not as meaningful or whatever, but AbbVie and we already had AstraZeneca. So, it's really, really going to be something interesting tonight to see how those things play out. Um, generally, I think there's some positives out there, John, but it it is a matter of of how well
positioned some of these different, uh, major technology companies uh have put themselves. And we know a lot about Meta already. We know something about Microsoft, but I think Google and Amazon should be pretty interesting. And Amazon, by the way, I will say there is a little bit of interest in in terms of the options, but that's a little teaser
cuz I'm not telling you if they're the up or the down.
That's why you're part of Market Rebellion to hear that.
That's true. That's true. Good work, Pete. All right. How about the Vic?
1820, 1830, something like that. It's up fractionally, but you know, yesterday the Nasdaq was getting cracked and they couldn't move this thing hardly off of 18, Pete. Mhm. Yeah, well, and and today it's the Dow that's getting cracked and and the Nasdaq's hanging in there. It's basically flat, but you've got the S&P
moving 1/10 of a percent to the downside, John. So, that being said, it followed exactly what we talked about yesterday, though. We did talk about, hey look, if this stays, you know, the way it's been playing out, I wouldn't be surprised to see this thing get back underneath 18. Well, certainly yesterday
it did. It got to 1780. As a matter of fact, the range today is 1780 to 1845.
Now it's trading closer to call it a little over 18. So, interesting, but it's it's pretty accurate, quite frankly, because of the the size of the move today of the S&P as well as yesterday. It's come down pretty significantly fairly fast. So, um I think it makes a heck of a lot of sense where it is right now. Could it
get back underneath? Maybe, but I think people the concerns probably, John, over the earnings tonight might kind of help that thing stay a little bit elevated for now.
Well, normally, Pete, we do our prediction exchanges, but I was uh traveling last night uh and Pete didn't fill up the jet, so I had to stop by the gas pump and fill it up.
Uh but I made it here safe safely to New York, luckily. And uh so, no prediction stuff today.
But I will dive right in, Pete, to Seagate Yeah. because Seagate what gross margins of 47%?
I mean, you don't see that every day, folks.
Seagate, of course, is mass data storage and this lifted a bunch of its competitors, too, Pete, because memory storage is a big deal and they're one of the biggest beneficiaries, according to Pete, for all of the AI
sector. Mhm. So, just take a look at a graph. This thing, Pete, was 579 last night on the close. It went up $120 today.
It's an unbelievable move, John, anywhere between call it 15%. It was more than that, but the last I looked it was around 15 16% to the upside. Like you said, memory storage storage, great category. AI spending that's going on is a is a is a monster number and these guys are one of those that are
really really doing extremely well based on that. And here here's how well they're doing, John. In Q3 earnings 410.
They were looking for 348. That I would say is not just a beat, but an absolute beating.
Revenue 3.11 billion. They were looking for 295. All right, that's another big beat.
How about the guidance? Well, the guidance looked pretty damn good. They were looking for something close to three and they got 480 to 520. They also had revenue of about 3.35 billion to 3.55 billion and they were looking for 3.16 billion. All those numbers put together along with what you were just talking about, John,
I would say this is deserving, which sounds crazy, but it's deserving of where it's been already today. New 52-week highs, absolutely ripping to the upside at six 697 is the top and it's pulled back from there, BUT IT'S STILL
UP. I'M LOOKING AT IT RIGHT NOW, 16% at 670. I mean, this thing is is absolutely on fire. It has been on fire. And if those earnings tonight get any kind of a move like what we're seeing here, uh it could get pretty interesting with some of those names like Meta and
Microsoft and all those. Yeah.
Yeah. Well, um what about NXPI, Pete?
I mean, NXPI folks, this is semiconductor player out of the Netherlands and it was up 12% last night. It was or in the early morning cuz of course they are, like I say, a Netherlands-based company. They were up 16% in the pre. They're up 25%
right now. And think of that, folks.
When we say these multi-billion-dollar companies are up 20-some-odd percent, I mean, that is just amazing. And this one, uh shares basically, uh they beat with guidance um and they beat uh as best they possibly could over and over again. Uh I
I just think this one's something special, Pete. It is. 52-week highs on this one, too, John. Just underneath 290 is where it hit today. It's got a PE that's actually relatively low. It's a a PE of 27 despite the fact that this thing's at 52-week highs. It's running like a scalded dog. I mean, the earnings
beat, you know, what? 305 was the number. The revenue that they beat, 3.1 uh billion dollars up 12% year over year. Absolutely everywhere you looked in this name, too, John. That's why it's at 52-week highs because they absolutely crushed it in every category that you could see. Guidance, yes. Revenue
guidance, yes. I mean, there's nothing that they didn't do that they uh they probably set out to do months ago and they absolutely crushed it. So, again, I just like to point out for all those guys who kept telling us about, well, you know, this whole AI thing is it's done.
They they hit its max. Well, hopefully you didn't listen to those clowns because those clowns have been absolutely awful and the markets continue to make this move and we're seeing it come right in front of us with these tech names where they're giving us the real numbers, not some BS numbers from some clown on TV with a stupid
smirk on their face. The reality is these companies are killing it right now, John.
Well, they are, Pete, and it's uh it's I think very well deserved what we're seeing here um on the moves to the upside.
How about if you lead us into the next two stocks, Pete? All right, we've got Bloom Energy in next up, John. Uh that thing has been absolutely on fire. You're exactly right with the punch to the cam. 22% move to the upside. Again, another 52-week high.
These guys absolutely crushing it. Got all the way up to 290 on the highest level, John. So, a big big move. Um it's off of that move right now, but I'll tell you what, they they did everything like we've been talking about in the first couple with Seagate and NXP I mean, I'm looking at Bloom Energy and
it's an energy name, obviously. Revenue up 130% year over year. I would say that's crushing it, wouldn't you, John?
I mean, these these numbers are absolutely extraordinary. And then you look at the outlook, the revenue, 3.4 to 3.8 billion. They were looking for a 3.23 billion. So, they had debit absolutely just crushed that as well. Analysts are out there upgrading this thing because they're late >> [laughter]
>> like they tend to be. I mean, wouldn't it be nice if these analysts, John, came out sometime before this because if they did, maybe that would be more important.
I don't know that they have to wait for these numbers because we already got the numbers, so we know that.
So, anyway, I think amazing again, as the earning season's moving on, Bloom Energy absolutely crushed it. I don't know if you have more to add to that or not, John.
I do. I would say, Pete, that um the easiest trade in the last year, um up until the war, was that you wanted to be somebody in the power generation on site.
You know, that could be an SMR, a small modular reactor. It could be Bloom Energy. It could be Plug Power. Could be anybody that you can basically make on-site power for, uh for instance, data centers, which we know are in huge demand. By the way, uh we'll be ringing
the closing bell at the Nasdaq today.
Our second bell ringing, folks, in less than a week. Last week, we rang the opening bell at Cboe Global Markets, Pete and I did, along with some of our lucky VIPs and platinum members. Well, we're going to do the same tonight at the Nasdaq. 4:00 p.m. Eastern, so tune into that on all the networks that carry
it, Pete. But, um I think uh like I say, the easiest trade a year ago was this, and it's not over yet because they still need Plug Power. They still need Bloom Energy and so forth. But, I think overall, what we're looking at is
uh this year, it's a different story.
And this year, uh in a upcoming webinar, Pete and I will be telling you about the one sector that you guys need to be in if you want to make money this year. You can make money across all the markets.
Look at it today. And like Pete said, we got Google tonight. We've got Microsoft tonight. We've got Meta tonight. You want to know what those things are doing? Well, you should be a member of Market Rebellion or minimally the Rebel Investors Club. But, let's do one more, Pete, and then we'll move on to sports.
All right, we'll jump on to Robinhood, John. Um they're the one that missed. I know we had three huge monster winners hitting 52-week highs, all the rest of that, all three of those other stocks.
But, not not so good for Hood, who's been great in the past, but what's really hurt them, John, is they are very, very close um and the and the movement is often times dictated by crypto. Now, do they have a great brokerage? Yes, I think they do a fantastic job. I give them all the
credit in the world. Um but, they declined in the revenue, their average revenue, that's not such a good thing to do. Uh their crypto space, John, revenue is down 47% on the crypto side of things. So, that's not very good. I've been talking about how it's been stuck in this sort of
muckety-muck area as far as the uh Bitcoin itself, but they they're more than that, but if you take a look at some of those charts in the crypto area and you take a look at the the chart for Hood, they aren't all that different, John. They have tumbled and they've fallen and down about 13% today. The crypto issue is definitely something.
They did raise their outlook, but unfortunately, the rest of the numbers just looked so bad, John, that people I think are just waiting and they're waiting for Robinhood to make a move, that's something that's going to maybe move them even away from crypto a little bit, but the problem is that right now
they are basically very dependent on that. They did have some nice numbers um in in terms of the brokerage itself, but not enough to get this thing into positive territory. And it's been going down, down, down, down. It wasn't that long ago this is a 150-plus dollar stock and now here we're trading what?
Somewhere closer to 70, something like that for Hood. It's getting beat up pretty good, John.
Yeah, and they don't get the benefit yet, folks. Um a lot of you, of course, hear us say all the time that uh you know, earnings are reversed. They're that you're looking backwards. Um and then it's the guidance going forward.
Well, the guidance uh going forward will probably be better as time goes by as they get visibility, as they say, into how they're doing with the uh day trading rules that have just changed dramatically.
Uh because if you were a pattern day trader, all of a sudden they'd take away your ability to trade. Uh if you uh broke the the rules of a pattern day trader. Now, um Robinhood, who has an awful lot of small accounts, Pete, I'm sure they've got big ones, too, but
they've got a lot of small accounts that would be subject to those old rules.
Now, those are out the window. That's been changed. So, going forward, I think it's going to be good in terms of the uh trading volumes over at Robinhood, but that's not part of this report. Right.
All right, should we jump into some sports, John? We got a couple of them that I think are kind of fun that we'll kick around. We talked about the draft.
We talked about so much of what's going on and how the teams are changing and I think that it's this is why the NFL is king, John. They they do things There are some things that they don't do well, but 90% of what they do, they do extremely well, in my opinion. Now, do I think that the the the top dog of the
NFL makes some mistakes? Absolutely.
But, I think that overall, he does a pretty damn good job and they grow, grow, grow, grow. And here's here's what it looks like from a ratings perspective, John. So, who is the king of all sports? It's the NFL. It's not even a discussion. But, I thought it would be fun to kind of take a look.
Yeah. Day one of the draft, April 23rd, they generated the third most watched day one ever. 13.2 million viewers were watching the draft. Now, they're competing against the NBA and the NHL.
Well, what does that really mean? Well, I'm looking at the NHL record breaking This is record breaking for the NHL. 1.53 million. I just got done saying that for the draft, this is not This isn't games, this is just the
draft. 13.2 million. NBA, 4.4 million viewers. Not a bad number, actually.
It's exceptionally high is what I read about there for the NBA. So, let's even say they made 5 million. Let's say they had 5 million. 13.2 million viewers, John, on the ESPN platforms for the NFL draft. Not the Super Bowl, not the playoffs, but it's just amazing that
when you look at that because, you know, you get guys like LeBron coming out there who don't know nothing. I don't know if you remember last year when he made that comment about, "Well, you know, the NFL shouldn't be playing at Christmas. That's our That's our turf." It's like, "Really? That's your turf, huh? Well, we can throw those ratings up
and tell Sure to to show you whose turf it really is. It's the NFL." But, I'll tell you, the draft was great. I think people were very excited about all the things that were happening within the draft and they've been following this thing since the combine, which also has great viewership as well, the combine, all right? So, it is It is pretty
interesting and I know you and I I think the last year we were talking about this same thing. It is about the king, and the king is the NFL. They really do things right. They've got people so excited about all of these various things. I mean, when you look at this How about this, John? Last thing I'll say. Pittsburgh, which is where the
draft was held this year.
They had a record attendance of 805,000 people over the three days. The very first day, 320,000 people were there to watch the draft.
So, it gives you a little bit of an idea the next time one of these clowns spouts off and says, "You know what? You know, I'm in the NBA. This is the This is king." It's like, "No, it ain't no king.
And it ain't no king to King James, either. So, what What do you think about these the size of this stuff and what's going on with the viewership?" I got to go, Pete. Top of the hour, I got to go cuz I got a Trade Monster webinar. So, I'll let you finish it up and I'll talk to the rest of you shortly. Thanks.
Sounds good. All right. Hey, the last thing we could hit is just this OKC. And what what I find so interesting about OKC is this.
So, you're in the NBA.
You're in front of the Suns at 4-0. And so, you're ready for the next next culprit that you've got up to go against.
But between SGA, who's probably the best player presently in the NBA, and Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, I mean, this is a team that is an absolute unbelievable team that done a great job. They won it all last year, the championship. They've got the
right people. And I'll tell you what, they are on the road to win it again this year. And so, the only challenger I really see that's out there potentially would be Boston. Cuz Boston really does have some unbelievable talent. They've got a shot at it. But when you look at all the various numbers of what's going
on, OKC is really truly the best team.
They led the the the NBA this past year, um again, the largest point differential in the NBA. So, you know, they they do everything so well. It's absolutely incredible. And they they play as a team. So, I think that if we're going to throw out any predictions, we didn't do
the prediction markets, I'll do this prediction. I I think that there's no no way other than Boston. I think OKC has a heck of a They will win the NBA championship again. So, that should be pretty interesting. Well, thanks for Thanks for checking us out. John had to run, but we
will see you guys tomorrow because Thursday is our final of the week, and we look forward to seeing you tomorrow on Thursday 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time.
>> [music]
Transcript from the show's YouTube captions; automatic captions may contain errors. Educational content, not investment advice.