Rebels Edge · Tue, Jul 21, 2026

Trading the Melting Market — What We’re Buying Now

Summary

John and Pete Najarian discuss a modest market decline following a warmer inflation report, with rising oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty weighing on sentiment. They highlight strength in Lumentum, Anderson Group and Micron, contrast it with SailPoint’s disappointing results and outlook, and close with NFL and NBA commentary.

The hosts argue that inflation headlines overstate the severity of the market’s roughly half-percent decline.
Crude oil near $99 and uncertainty around tanker escorts are viewed as important market pressures; the VIX is around 23.
Lumentum rises about 10% following a Morgan Stanley price-target increase, with AI-related optical demand supporting the bullish discussion.
Anderson Group gains roughly 18% after strong earnings and revenue results, alongside projected revenue growth and margin expansion.
SailPoint falls approximately 13–14% after reported earnings and revenue misses and a weaker-than-expected forecast.
Micron reaches a record high near $471; the hosts cite AI-driven memory demand and a forward P/E around 14 as reasons for further optimism.
The hosts revisit profitable unusual options activity in Micron but provide no specific new option contract or entry instructions.
Sports discussion covers Caleb Banks, the Vikings’ quarterback situation and Oklahoma City’s championship prospects.

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Full transcript

Welcome back to the rebels' edge, coming to you from Las Vegas and the Great White North. Where Pete, who's gotten about 3 ft of snow in the last couple days, is just waiting for it to start melting. Sort of like the market melted this morning. We had a little bit of a melt because of the PPI coming in hot,
but the market's trying to climb that wall of worry. We'll tell you which ones not to worry about right after this on today's rebels' edge.
>> [music] [music] >> Well, Pete, what do you think? I mean, a little bit of a warm, I don't think it
was a hot uh uh PPI report, but you know, when you hear the numbers, folks, and you hear, "Oh, we're down 400 points." And they put it all over all the various financial services.
It's not very realistic because, I mean, we're talking about half of a percent in many cases, Pete. So, it's like, we're down half a percent or we're down 1% and then they're saying, "Oh, IT WAS A HOT INFLATION REPORT." >> [laughter] >> What do you think, Pete?
>> Yeah, I think they overplay things a lot. And you know what? That's television. So, it is what it is.
Obviously, that's that's ratings and that's what a lot of people care about, but I think you're right, John. I mean, I think that we are seeing a lot more positive than negative out there right now. And you know, obviously, there are certain things that are moving around that I think can be a bit concerning, but a lot of that having to do with what
what we're calling war. And um and I think that's probably as much of an influence as anything, quite honestly.
Yep. Well, let's dive into full macro then, Pete. Um I'll tell you who's doing pretty well, and that is Japan. The president was meeting with their prime minister and she had to be a pretty happy camper, Pete. Exports surging 4.2% way above expectations and that's pretty
good for Japan, one of the biggest economies in the world. Yeah. And and as I had kind of uh put out there the whole thing about crude. I'm looking at that up what? 3% today? I'm seeing I think crude sitting right around 99, John. So, a little bit of a lift. I think we got down towards 94, 95, somewhere in that
ballpark, anyway. Um but oil again is in the driver's seat, in my opinion. I mean, you you were just talking about how much what what's it sort of influencing the markets and I think, you know, we started off not that bad and then all of a sudden we started sinking a little bit faster to the downside as oil has been up there. And you know, still there's some pushback
about the US and the possibility of escorting tankers and that whole thing.
And there's just a lot of stories that are still coming from over there that are definitely influencing the markets, I think, to the negative side, at least for now, John.
Well, what do you think about your VIX reading, Pete?
The VIX getting a little bit of a lift today, but not a like explosive upside move, is it? No, I mean, when you when you're looking at the volatility index and you're seeing it trading at a 23, I think that there's a lot of emotion into there right now because the reality is, John, the last I looked, I think the
S&P was down maybe a half of a percent.
So, you know, that that says a lot more to me than where the VIX is at 23. The VIX probably ought to have continued a little bit of a path to the downside, but there's also that emotion side of things and a few things that can kind of push it around a little bit. So, yeah, trading around 23, we've been up around
23 and a half, somewhere up there, but not I wouldn't be shocked at all, John, if we started to push down a little bit with any kind of a a pullback from where the markets are right now.
Well, and I'm not making fun of this one at all, Pete, but I just think it's uh strange that you see on Polymarket people betting on Harvey Weinstein's prison time. Yeah.
I'll point out that 27%, which is the highest percentage on this list, uh say he won't get any more prison time.
[laughter] Really? And uh you know, uh I I'm sure that he is professing his innocence. Um and I'm not saying the guy's guilty or innocent. I think he's kind of a heel. But I think a lot of people have said before me, Pete, that
if you go up to a guy's hotel room, um chances are it's a different kind of a tryout than the one you thought >> [laughter] >> when you first heard of the casting couch in Hollywood, maybe.
Yeah. Gosh, that whole thing is crazy.
It I think that my takeaway is this, there is nothing you can't put a bet on anymore. I mean, there's it's a wide-open market, and it's pretty dag on interesting to watch how this thing goes. I mean, the fact that you could even vote on something like this or bet, I should say, on something like this is pretty extraordinary. But, you
know what? It it probably shouldn't be surprising us. I mean, it's we're we're kind of a crazy society right now. [laughter] And and it opens up the door for all kinds of stuff like this. I mean, whether or not I mean, it's not that big of a stretch when you're talking about, well, who do you think is going to get the Grammy or the, you know, whatever. But, uh to be able to bet on
on this guy, whether or not he's going to have more prison time.
It's where we have come. And I think social media is a huge factor in this whole thing, for sure.
Well, let's let's jump into stocks, Pete. Something a little a little more normal. Uh and a 10% jump, that's pretty good for Lumentum, LITE.
Um basically a rebound for optical and photonics. Uh that's the sector that they're in, of course.
Uh basically, what they're seeing here, Pete, is Morgan Stanley raised their price target. Um and that was one of the big things that caused this 10% melt up.
So, LITE, I know a lot of you don't trade it. And the reason I say that is to $700 stock. Um not too many people that are doing anything but trading options because the options would give you an option, the pun is intended, to
get into this stock for a lot less. But, how many of you would be basically buying a thousand shares of a $700 stock? Not too many. But, it is lifting today, Pete. Yeah, nice move to the upside. And I think if I saw this correctly, John, so correct me if I'm wrong on this, but I thought I saw
something about Nvidia and an investment, a multi-year deal, at least, that these guys had put together.
The the reality is that this is something very close for the folks in the AI space as well. And the optical demand is there, the high speeds, the long distances, all these things that go along with this company. But, as you put it as well, with Morgan Stanley, with a price target 520 that's now at 595, I
mean, that's a big jump, right? I mean, so looking for a lot of of things to happen. Now, they they didn't change where they were. They maintained what what their their name was out there with the equal weight. But, spiking near 52-week highs, AI-driven demand, they're saying. So,
I would say that Lumentum is probably in a really nice space right now, John, that probably has a lot more upside to it.
Yeah. Well, what about Anderson Group, Pete? Yeah.
This one likewise, and it's not in the photonics or in the optical networking or anything else space, but these guys are like taxes and business valuations and things like that, ANDG.
And they're seeing a pretty interesting lift because their their earnings, 22 cents a share, they beat by a dollar 86, Pete. So, that's an explosive beat, no two ways about it. Uh I'm not saying that they should be up
even more, but this is just a blowout number for them. And the revenue number also beat. So, not surprised to see this one melting up. Yeah. Well, that beat with the revenue, John, was was powerful year over year for the quarter and for the year, up 14%. So, there's a lot of strength
that's going into this name right now, and that's pretty dag on impressive. I think when you're looking at the Q4 earnings beat, like you just said, I mean, that was pretty massive. And the revenue beat was also pretty dag on massive. I mean, a blowout. So, when you put up those kinds of numbers, you should expect to be up pretty significantly. And I think last I
looked, they were close to 18% to the upside. That revenue growth of 14 to 15% also for the 2026 year. And the margins as well, John, going to 22 to 23%. Um I would say this is one of the better reports that we've seen in quite a while. Very impressive what Anderson
Group was able to put up there. And I'll tell you what, on a negative day like we've got, and for this thing to be able to even holding on to a lot of the numbers where it is right now, I think that speaks volumes about where this company is.
Well, they're they're also they've got competition, Pete, but there's only so many companies that do these kinds of valuations for multi-billion dollar companies and so forth. And a lot of them are former, you know, like Deloitte and McKinsey and things like that. So,
these guys are in a good space. I agree.
Well, let's hit SailPoint. It's down 14% today, Pete. It's S A I L and it's cybersecurity and identity.
So, uh identity solutions basically for employees at uh firms. You know, if you want to keep track of who can get into which rooms and all that kind of stuff, these guys do that as well as cyber security. And they issued a weaker than
expected forecast going forward. And there is no truer thing on Wall Street than if you lower your guidance going forward cuz everything else is backwards looking. What were your earnings for the last quarter? That's behind us. Then when you're looking forward, if you say,
"Well, but we don't exactly see the same sort of opportunities and revenue gains that we saw in this quarter." Somebody's going to sell you and sell they do in sale today. Yeah, that and we talk about this all the time, but when your forecast is weaker than expected, that's not going to be good. They they missed
John when it comes to the expectations of the revenue. They missed on that.
That was not so good. They also missed on their earnings. They missed on the missed on the earnings. They missed missed on the revenue. They also missed on the sales. So, the combination of everything when you have those the triple threat of misses, your stock's going to probably go down. And it is and it's down, you
know, somewhere close to 13% but for all the right reasons. I mean, they're in the right space at this time in in our lives in cyber security. You would think that this would be a time where they would be doing extremely well. But if they're not or at least they're not doing it in compared to what they expected, well, the unexpected is is
something like the people are looking at it going, "Hey man, palms out on this one. Sold to you." And that's that's where SailPoint finds itself right now.
Yeah, well, it's a a multi-year low, Pete. I mean, I'm looking at a five-year chart. It's the lowest level it's been at in five years and it's been as high as like 24 bucks over that five years, not the 52-week. But 52-week the the
high was I think like 26 and man, our 20 25, I'm sorry. And this one has cut that in half. So, not good. Not good. All right, let's wind it up, Pete, with the stock you used to be the specialist for Micron.
It tripled, 3x last year. Pete was talking about this one yesterday because yeah, we did have unusual activity in it and that activity, as we said, did pay off, folks. I mean, you know, the 16th, which was only two days ago.
>> [laughter] >> Yeah.
It was 446. Now, it's 466, $20 higher.
And I think this one is just continues to be one of the best plays, Pete, whether it's just for quantum computing, cyber, whether it's for data centers, whether it's for
almost anything involving AI. Micron's going to be some part of it, especially with deals that they do with other big producers like Nvidia, of course, the 800-lb gorilla. But that unusual activity, if you guys want to get some of that, all you got to do is scan the
QR code and you guys could be trading them just like us because when we get these signals, we talk about it amongst ourselves after we've published it to our subscribers.
And a lot of them are pretty happy campers today with stock $20 higher than where it was two days ago in a sideways market. Up, down, up, down, I'll call that sideways. What do you think, Pete?
Yeah, well, here's what I also think, John. The the one thing and and something based upon what you were just showing as far as that unusual option activity, but this thing hit an all-time high today. It got all the way up to 47134.
So, yeah, now it's trading a little bit lower.
Well, the markets are pulling things down a little bit or whatever, but this is a stock that absolutely crushed it, John. They've been doing it for a quite a while now, as you mentioned. I mean, we're up 64% year-to-date. The thing's up 360% over the last year. So, I would say that they have had a really, really nice run and an absolutely incredible run. And
the heavy demand that comes from a lot of different companies, including Nvidia, as you just said, really stands out to me. But you know, the revenue growth continues. It continues to be very robust and the demand is there for all the things that are part of the whole AI space. And oh, by the way, I took a look this morning,
John, just for a little peek that I wanted to see. What is the forward PE on Micron? I know what the PE is, but the forward PE 14.
So, let me tell you something. For anybody who thinks this thing's overvalued right now, given the backdrop of AI and partnerships or sales that go to places like Nvidia and others, I would say at a 14 PE, these guys got a little bit more room on that upside.
Now, it has pulled back a little bit.
What is it? 466, whatever. I don't even care. This thing has room to the upside, I would say, in anything that is positive for Micron or the markets and this thing could probably sprint even faster because like you were just saying, that storage world and memory world are absolute freak shows still
with SanDisk being one of the biggest and baddest of them all. But throw in Micron and throw in some of the others, Western Dig, Seagate, you know, that whole category is looking pretty good these days, I would say.
Yeah, well, it went through 471 like Pete said, a new all-time all-time high.
So, yeah, a lot of things good for Mr.
Simplot's company. And yeah, Pete and I know who is the founder of this thing and he also made french fries for McDonald's. That's how he made his potato farmer. He's a potato freaking Idaho. Yeah. It's a great story. That's great. All right, Pete.
Um, speaking of growth, uh-huh, um, we wanted to show you this one, folks, because you just can't believe how big some of these athletes are. And when you hear how young they are and how big they are, it's just something that literally is off the charts. So, let's let you
watch and listen. What if I told you this 327-lb defensive tackle just logged the same vertical jump as Bronny James? This is Caleb Banks and he's one of the most intriguing prospects in this year's NFL draft. And he's one way to improve your
draft stock at the NFL combine is to show off your all-world athleticism. And 6'6" 327-lb defensive tackle Caleb Banks just shocked the world with his. First, his measurements were off the charts. At his position, his height, hand size, arm
length, and wingspan were all at least in the 94th percentile. And as soon as he stepped onto the field, he impressed even more, tallying a 32-in standing vertical, the exact same mark Bronny hit at his NBA combine. Banks ran an impressive 5.04 40-yd dash to go along
with a 9'6" broad jump. Despite only appearing in two games last season, Banks' draft stock remains sky high. And it's safe to say any team who selects him in the first round is getting some god-given talent. What if I told you this three He'd be my Let me tell you what, John.
If I were with the Minnesota Vikings, that would be most likely my pick if he if he's still even there. And I think he might be. It's kind of, you know, up and down and all that. So, you never know until it's the draft, to be honest with you. Everybody has their predictions of whatever. But that guy with his size in
the NFL right now in the middle, that saves your two linebackers behind you and a heck of a lot of protection when you've got a guy that athletic, that good, that aggressive even on pass plays because a lot of the time, you know, those really big guys, they're not going to get a lot of pressure on the
quarterback. That guy can and does. So, I think he is a natural freak.
And as good as I've seen as far as a D-tackle, that guy is right up there with some of the kids who've come out of Georgia over the last couple of years that are big, fast, and all that. Like Carter.
Yeah. Like Carter, yeah.
What a beast. They got some monsters.
All right, John. Here we go.
Speaking of the Minnesota Vikings, so we all know that they they fired their general manager and so they're going with it with a a gentleman right now who's the financial guy, but also he has been the general manager in the past.
And here's the the one mistake, you know, that the Vikings have made a little bit, John, have have been they're really pushing this whole thing in terms of the salary cap. I mean, they came and they finished the season with a four 43 million dollars over the cap. Now, they basically had to go through and go,
"Okay, Harrison Smith, either you're gone or or you're going to have to redo your contract. Aaron Jones, you're gone or you're going to have to redo your contract. T.J. Hockenson, our tight end, gone or you're going to have to redo your contract." Because they've got to get this thing down because obviously and
and by the way, because of that, how did they do in free agency? Not very good.
They didn't sign hardly anybody of any worth, John, that anybody knows really, except for one. And I and I'm start He's really starting to grow on me a little bit, but he's got problems. But they just signed Kyler Murray, right? Now, 1.3 million is the only cost that they've got for year one with Kyler
Murray as a tryout basically for the year. Is he going to be the start starter? Is he going to compete with J.J.? Or is he, you know, what's what's the positioning everybody wants to ask.
I think the smart way it would be to go with, hey, let's just let those guys fight it out and whoever the best man is is the winner and that's the way they should do it. And I I hope that they do, but the rest of the money, by the way, for for Kyler Murray is coming from the Arizona Cardinals. So, they're they're paying a lot of money for a guy who's
not on their roster, John, and that's another problem that happens sometimes.
But, here's the one thing that concerns me a little bit and then I'll let you tell me what you think. So, he's got good his his completion percentage for an NFL career and he's already been there for more years than you probably think. But, 67% that's not too bad. 121 touchdowns, but he's got 60
interceptions.
He's been sacked 195 times, which at some point that does wear you down just a little bit. But, all that being said, I don't really like that, you know, two touchdowns to every one interception or vice versa, however you want to say it.
Two to one. That kind of scares me. So, what what do you think about that? I mean, you've seen him play, I'm sure.
He's very small. He's 5'10, weighs about 210.
He's solid, he can take hits, but he's been hurt over the last couple years specifically, he's been hurt, which makes a little bit of sense when you've been sacked nearly 200 times. But, what do you think about this and do you think he was the right free agent for the Vikings to sign? And I I'll tell you, dollar-wise, the answer is 100%
yes. 1.3 million for a quarterback, I've never seen anything quite like it.
Yeah, um you know, there were alternatives, of course, like Aaron Rodgers. Yeah. Um who would just be a I don't want to say, you know, a four-time MVP as a stopgap. But, you know, it would be an opportunity for, for instance, JJ to learn a little
bit from a guy like Aaron. Um and, you know, if they caught lightning in a bottle, could they win? Yeah, but as you've said, that offensive line has been Swiss cheese and that's why they had so many sacks and Aaron Rodgers wouldn't stand up under that at this
stage in his career. Right. Um he's played with old, you know, damaged old lines at uh Green Bay and made it work because he had a bunch of great receivers and because he was a younger man. Yeah. So, he could take those hits. Now in his 40s, I don't think so, Pete.
Um but, Kyler obviously, one thing he has proved is he's he can still play the position even though he is not 6'4 or 5 like Tom Brady or like Fernando Mendoza. Mhm. He is a smaller guy, you know, he's a lot more like a Drew Brees. But, both of them can
win.
Um I I I guess the the thing is that uh if he survives, you know, if they don't get a couple big offensive linemen to help him out, Pete, it's still going to be a rough year for the Vikings, I think. Yeah, and he's it's going to be tough because, you know, he almost has to be in the shotgun
just for vision. You know what I mean?
So, that changes the offense just a little bit, too. I mean, of course, yeah, he he'll be under center here and there, but probably not all that often just because of the fact I was just talking to one of the best scouts in all of the NFL just yesterday about him. And he was telling me, he goes, you know, that bothers me that he can't really get
under the center like that because, you know what? That changes a lot about the pass patterns and everything else and will they, you know, and that's that can be an issue when you've got a guy who's 5'10, not 6'2, 6'4, 6'5, where they can they can be there and they got plenty of height to be able to see what they need to see. All right, John, how about the NBA?
Um I just wanted to to point this out and and see what you think because you and I, you know, we lived in Chicago for a long time. I got there in 1992, you got there in '81 uh saw a lot of good basketball, a lot of bad basketball early, but when Michael Jordan decided to be there, that turned into pretty
damn good basketball. So, how about this Oklahoma Oklahoma City Thunder? I mean, these guys are about as dominant as anybody in a while. I mean, it's really really impressive what they're able to do and last year they went won the whole thing, right? I mean, they beat Indiana,
I think, in seven games, but they won and really really impressive. Indiana was really impressive as well. This year, they got 54 wins, they're on a nine-game winning streak in the last 10 uh they're they're nine and one.
They get they have just about every number you'd want. I'm looking at it, John. Number two in defense, so they did they play both sides. So, they're number two in defense, number five in offense.
SGA is probably one of the best players in the NBA. Some people will probably say he's the best player in the NBA right now. But, he's averaging almost 32 points a game. That's what the guy does.
The guy's impressive as hell running up and down the field or the court. They got six players in double digits right now on on average, they average double digits. And Chet Holmgren, John, 17 points a game. He's Mr. Unselfish. He'll He'll get in there even though he's a tall, thin dude. He's 7'1, but he's got
no weight on him, but his dad taught him how to dribble and how to shoot, which makes the 7'1 guy pretty damn dangerous from the outside. And the guy's a rebounding freak. So, I I'm wondering this, does Oklahoma City go back-to-back this year?
The answer is yes, they do. [laughter] Um and that nine-game win streak is it feeds right into that uh assessment on my part. So, can they win it all? Yes.
Are there still some good teams like Indiana? Yes. But, as a team, does anybody else else have six guys that can put up double digit every game? Yeah.
And the answer is no. Mhm. So, um you can foul them, but if you have six guys, not just two guys, um those two guys are going to get fouled hard through the whole game. Um especially in the playoffs and that's what they used to do to Jordan, of course. Uh and Bird. Um and Shaq, for that matter. I mean, you know,
hack-a-Shaq and all that cuz he couldn't shoot free throws, right? I mean, he's a friend of Pete's, but he can't shoot free throws.
>> [laughter] >> He was a terrible and I'll tell you what, it was the most brilliant game plan in the world to get three big hacks out there and just literally hack him as hard as they could >> [laughter] >> cuz you know he's probably going to go maybe 50% on his free throws, maybe.
But, he's going to get two, but, you know what? They're really only scoring a point, probably.
Yeah. Well, um so, my answer, Pete, is OKC goes back-to-back. And maybe we should start betting that one on Polymarket or something like that instead of Weinstein. Yeah, I like that idea and Weinstein kind OF IS ANYWAY.
>> [laughter] >> WELL, THANKS FOR joining us, folks.
Uh he's Pete Najarian, I'm John Najarian. We appreciate all of your support. You can always follow us, you see right there. Um my handle on Twitter, you see Pete's underneath him. So, follow us for more and we will be back tomorrow at 1:00 p.m. Eastern time. See you then.

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