Rebels Edge · Thu, Sep 3, 2026

Treasury Yields Are Falling. Here's Why It Matters

Summary

The host discusses a pullback in Treasury yields and lower implied odds of a rate hike alongside a broad stock-market rally. The episode also covers oil, gold, volatility and Bitcoin before shifting to sports ownership and college football, ending with a reminder to remain disciplined.

Treasury yields retreated after reaching what the host described as 2½-year highs.
The cited FedWatch probability of a rate increase fell from 63% to 48% in one day.
Major stock indexes rallied roughly 1%–1.3%, with gains extending beyond technology and energy.
Rising oil prices were described as inflationary, with Iran-related developments contributing to uncertainty.
Gold rose about 2.5%, which the host attributed to demand for safe-haven assets.
The VIX traded around 14.85–15.40, indicating relatively subdued market volatility.
Bitcoin reportedly climbed from about $64,000 in mid-August to $80,000, though the host emphasized its volatility.
No individual stocks were analyzed; the host closed by emphasizing trading discipline despite the rally.

Full transcript

Treasury yields, what does it mean for you if they're dropping? We're going to tell you that in JUST A MINUTE.
>> [music] [music] >> AND WELCOME TO THE REBEL'S EDGE. I GOT TO TELL YOU, it's going to be a very, very interesting day, and why is that?
Because we're looking at these treasury yields, and by the way, after hitting highs, 2 and 1/2 year highs, they're starting to pull back. Now, what does that mean for us? Well, it means that there's going to be support for the idea of, "Hey, we don't have to raise rates." And that's exactly what people are looking at, and because of that, what's
happening in the market? Well, we look at the Dow, the Dow's only up 600 points. It's up 1 and 1/2 what, 1.2%?
You look over at the Nasdaq, sort of the same thing, up about 360 points or so, so 1.3%. The S&P up 1% as well. So, the markets definitely are telling us what they really want to get from each and every day, and obviously, the move in treasuries after yesterday's
big highs, and now this pullback, that makes it pretty darn interesting. And if you take a look at that Fed Watch Tool, it was 63% yesterday that rates were going to be going higher, and now, 48% chance. So, it gives you a little bit of an idea how fast things can change within the
markets, and it's it's absolutely remarkable, and people are just absolutely going crazy. It's not just technology, it's not just energy, it's all of the market itself is starting to kind of raise up a little bit. So, we'll be we'll be giving you a little bit more on that. As a matter of fact, when I look at WTI, the price of oil going
higher, yes, that's inflationary, we've talked about that. That's not going to change until something changes in Iran, and until then, we're going to be watching this thing move all over the place like John calls it the heartbeat because one day it could be down 2% next two or three days it could go up 1% each day. So, moving around, sure, that's
very that's something I think that we're going to see. Gold, it's up big today.
Why is it up 2 and 1/2% today? Well, because there's still a lot of people out there who still want to have a safe haven. They want to move their money around now under these circumstances so they have some safety in there as well.
You look over at the VIX. People aren't all that worried. You're looking at volatility that's trading somewhere between 1485 and call it a little over 15, 1540. That's sort of the range, but the range is even pushing a little bit closer towards 15 now, but that's very very nice. It's very low. People aren't
extremely weirded out by the fact of the volatility spiking cuz we haven't seen a spike in a while. I mean, the biggest spike we've seen recently is right in front of you where we were in the 16 still. So, you if you really go back in time and you see VIX trading somewhere into the mid-20s, then maybe even the
30s, even the 60s.
That's a much different sort of a situation. So, I think we're very happy to see where the VIX is right now. I'll tell you what, one other thing that that stands out for me in the markets themselves is Bitcoin. And Bitcoin has been all over the map, but if you go back to middle of August, we were sitting there at 64,000 for Bitcoin. You
know where we are today? 80,000. So, that has been on this move. It's been primarily it's almost been a straight shot to the upside. A little pullback here and there, but this has been an incredible run and it's it will we'll see how far this can run cuz there is a few folks out there that definitely want
to have a little bit more exposure now to something that's probably considered a little bit more volatile and I would say volatile it is. All right.
That's it for the markets themselves. We aren't going to hit any specific stocks today, but I am going to talk a little bit about some sports stuff because I think it's so interesting and I think people need to sink their teeth into what it really means. There's a gentleman out there who by the name of Stan Kroenke. He's out of St. Louis.
This guy is a self-made billionaire and one of the things that he's done very well with from his investments has been sports. And what do I mean by that?
Well, he owns the LA Rams in the NFL. He owns the Denver Nuggets in the NBA. He owns the Colorado Avalanche in the NHL.
He's got MLB, he's got the Los Angeles Angels. He's even got Arsenal over there from the soccer standpoint as well. So, this is an absolutely amazing guy who's done incredible investing over the years and the money that he's made there probably dwarfs the kind of money that he made to get there initially. So,
unbelievable. He's now 79 years old. The stories were out there the other day because of the fact that of what he's been doing and adding to this whole thing. It's just absolutely incredible.
So, uh you know, kudos to this this gentleman of what he's been able to do.
As a matter of fact, even the SoFi Stadium. 300 acres. He built that. So, amazing storyline. I think this guy um is is unbelievable what he's been able to do in his lifespan already. And you know what? He's 79, probably going on 60 because he's really got plenty of energy
left and he just made another acquisition. It's an unbelievable storyline. All right, I want to jump to college football real quick.
We really kick off college football tonight. It's going to be great. My Golden Gophers are going to be over here. Unfortunately, not playing anybody, you know, of of cost >> [laughter] >> that you'd probably know, but a lot of these teams do that. They almost like a preseason. It's like a starter. And the Gophers are in that category. Not everybody does that. There are some big games for tonight. They're going into
Friday, Saturday, Sunday, even into Monday. So, it's going to be very interesting. But, I wanted to talk about a guy who I consider to be a sleeper.
And his name is Katen Hauser. He's the Illinois quarterback. I'll tell you what, he's that's it's very much like Fernando Mendoza where people have heard of him, they don't really know much about him, and I put this guy in the same category. He's built like a quarterback. He's 6'3, 225 lb. He has a
rocket for an arm to the point where his coach down there at Illinois, Bret Bielema, who knows a little something about quarterbacks over the years, let me tell you something. He said he's got the fastest release he has ever seen. He's also incredibly accurate and he's very smart. Well, that sounds like a lot of
the things that we were hearing about Mendoza last year around this time, and I think a lot of people just said, "Yeah, let's let's just wait to watch him." Well, they did. They watched him get the Heisman Trophy. They also watched him be the first person in the entire draft this past year to the Raiders. So, um it's going to be interesting and I there's so many other
quarterbacks out there. I mean, Dante Moore, Arch Manning, all these guys that you've maybe heard of, uh C.J. Carr. I mean, you go through the list, he is not on that top 10 list.
But, I think when we get to the end of the year, it'll be very, very interesting to see where does he rank on that list and is he going to go as high as I think he potentially could. I mean, when you look at his numbers, he threw for 3,300 yd last year, 19 touchdowns, six interceptions. He's now had 26
starts in college football. He's also run for nine touchdowns as well. So, very much like Fernando, this guy can do it with his legs, he can do it with his arm, and I think this is one of these guys that you're going to hear a lot more about as time goes on. Katen Hauser at Illinois.
Folks, John's not with me today. You can obviously see that, but um I tell you what, I think the markets are absolutely on fire. We were up 200 early, then 300, then now 600. It's It's been absolutely just unbelievable run to the upside, but always be disciplined. It's something we talk about here at Market Rebellion all
the time. And speaking of discipline, I'll see you Tuesday next week as we get past Labor Day.

Transcript from the show's YouTube captions; automatic captions may contain errors. Educational content, not investment advice.