Rebels Edge · Thu, Aug 20, 2026

What's Sending Bitcoin Back Above $70,000?

Summary

The hosts discuss a declining stock market amid rising Treasury yields and oil prices, alongside earnings reactions in Alibaba and Walmart and strength in CF Industries. They attribute Bitcoin’s rebound above $72,000 to optimism around digital-asset legislation and possible short covering, highlighting related gains in Coinbase and Strategy.

Rising Treasury yields and crude oil’s move from roughly $75 to $88 are described as headwinds for stocks and inflation.
The VIX trades around 15–16, which the hosts consider consistent with relatively modest S&P 500 losses.
Alibaba rebounds from its intraday lows after an earnings miss; aggressive spending weighs on profitability despite strong cloud results.
Walmart falls despite beating quarterly earnings and revenue expectations, with weak comparable sales growth and cautious guidance drawing concern.
CF Industries rises on strong operating performance, with buybacks, dividend increases and higher analyst price targets supporting sentiment.
Optimism about the Clarity Act and clearer digital-asset rules is cited as a catalyst for Bitcoin, Coinbase and Strategy.
Bitcoin’s jump from approximately $64,000 on Tuesday to $72,000 on Thursday is also linked to a possible short squeeze; the hosts identify $72,000 as a level to watch.

BABA WMT CF MSTR COIN

Full transcript

Welcome back to the Rebels' Edge. The final Rebels' Edge of the week, folks.
The Dow's down 330 points. Nasdaq's down about 7/10 of 1%. S&P only down 3/10 of a percent. Do you want to know why?
Well, we're about to tell you why and cover some sports and volatility on today's Rebels' Edge.
>> [music] [music] >> Well, Pete, last Rebels' Edge of the week and we're both going to be
traveling, I guess, tomorrow. So, that's why we keep Fridays open, folks.
>> Yep. Yep.
I got kind of a combination I got a combination platter going in front of me, John. I've got a combination of of quite a few financial meetings and then some sports meetings and then my wife is turning God, I might have to switch switch this whole thing around. She's
Just kidding. But, she is she's turning 60 this year. So, pretty interesting.
>> [laughter] >> 60.
This is 60. This is 60.
You touch the top of your head there, folks. It's 10 times the number. So, this is two. This is 20. This is not three, that's eight because it's sideways. This is three. This is eight.
And if I hit it up here, it's 80.
Anyway, we can go over hand signals another time.
>> Yep.
>> Let's dive into macro, Pete. Bond yields are advancing, which ain't good. We would prefer them not to be advancing, but they are are and the Treasury Department said at least it's going to double repurchases of 10-year, 20-year,
30-year debt in the next few months. So, why are the yields increasing? By the Gilantes as well as maybe the fact that it's not starting today. It's going to start in the next few months.
>> Yeah. Well, and you know what? Um, I think that's really important. I think from the macro standpoint of mine, John, it's just right back to this whole thing with crude. You know, the storylines every day, everything, you know, uh, it was just 2 weeks ago we were at 75 and here we are today at anywhere between call it 86 and 88, wherever we are might
at the moment, but uh, you know, uh, it's going to be something that is influencing the markets in a big way and we talk about where's inflation?
Where's inflation? We can point right at it. It's oil.
And because of that, this move from 75 to call it 88, um, that's uh, that's given the markets a little bit of a headache right now.
>> Yeah, it is and uh, that along with those rising yields, Pete, and one of the stocks that's in our watch list today, uh, might have something to say about it as well. How about volatility? What's the val doing, Pete?
>> You know what? It's amazing, John. It is right snap where it needs to be, basically, and it doesn't always have to be there just because, uh, but but it is and you know, we bounced up to 16.
Have we done about a 1% move? No, not the S&P. As a matter of fact, as John pointed out just a little while ago, actually, it's it's a fairly calm what? Quarter percent or something like that right now?
Something close to that anyway. And we're in that range, call it 15 to 16.
Yeah, we were down at 14.90, but we'll say 15 to 16. That's kind of the range.
15.80 sort of where it was. Now it's back down closer to 15.60, so I would say all is is right with the Vix right now, so we'll see. Although, um, I could see it even come down a little bit more, John, as the as the day goes on.
>> Well, we will see, Pete, uh, whether or not it comes down and in the meantime, let's hit Kalsee's, uh, basically saying how high will the S&P get this year? Well, 8,000 or above it dropped the percentage chance that
traders picked on that dropped, but it's still at almost 65% that we go over 8,000 people.
>> Yeah, it's pretty interesting to see this whole thing, John, and um over 8,000, yes, but past that it starts to shrink down pretty significantly, right? I mean, six almost 65% at, you know, over 8,000. 8,200, that's all of a sudden drops pretty significantly. At
8,400, really starts to drop. So, I think that we could very easily get up there, but I think there is, you know, some history behind it right now that we've talked about earlier in the week in terms of, well, we're through earnings, so what's next?
Well, it had a lot to do with voting.
And so, that could be something that could could maybe be not so great for the markets if the history repeats what we've seen in the past.
>> Well, let's hit a little bit of the Circa behind me, Pete, which is, of course, where we're going to be with a whole bunch of great speakers, folks.
We've just signed up Scott Redler as well, and Scott does a fantastic job every day getting traders ready for the day. And he's going to be one of the speakers.
We've got, of course, Mr. Grasso, Steve Grasso, who's going to be joining us out there, Pete. Be fabulous to have him.
We've got so many great speakers and so forth, folks. Scan that QR code there and reserve your seat now. Because in a little over 3 weeks, Pete, the price goes back up. It's a $695 ticket for the 2 days, and that 2-day ticket is right
now only $495.
But you got to scan the QR code and get in now before the September 10th deadline.
>> Mhm.
>> And I think it's going to be a fabulous time out there, Pete. Looking forward to it. I know you are. And uh this will be one of many, we hope, out at Circa in LA or in Las Vegas.
>> Las Vegas. Yeah, I look forward to it just like you you are, John. I mean, it's great. It's something that I don't think people a lot of people uh realize that it's not just about the strip. It's downtown as well. And this is uh this is probably one of the most beautiful hotels and the casinos themselves, especially the ones out by the pool. I mean, this is this whole thing is
fantastic. I I I'm I agree with you.
It's the venue alone is outstanding and I think the speakers will put it up to the next level.
>> Well, we're certainly going to give it our best shot and we think that you guys should definitely check it out. So, do scan that QR code. All right, Pete, let's go with Baba because Baba came out with um some earnings and the stock uh sort of reacted to those earnings with a
sell-off. Fairly sharp sell-off. It went down below the lows of the week. But, then it began climbing back up. And right now, it's only down 2% on the day.
It was rather disappointing first quarter results. Um basically uh revenue did increase by almost double digits. It was just shy of 10%, Pete. But, uh it only slightly surpassed expectations. So, people were a little nervous about that, I guess.
>> Yeah, they're nervous about that. What really hurt them, I think, early on was just the idea of how big of a miss they really had with the earnings themselves, which was a problem. And And the problem is this, aggressive spending. And you know what? We've heard that from a lot, right? I mean, we've seen this time and time again. All the spending, AI AI infrastructures, all this stuff that
everybody's talking about. And that did impact some of their profitability, but they did have some really strong numbers come out of the cloud, John, but that just wasn't enough to kind of get this thing back up to where it needed to be.
But, like you just said, this thing was down initially, and I think people are starting to look at this a little differently and saying, "You know what?
Okay, this might be a one-time thing with the earnings, so you know what?
Maybe we're jumping back in." Whatever the thought process might be, we all do know one thing, it's come off of the lows of the day and starting to creep back up almost unchanged. So, good to see that. And this is a stock, by the way, if you looked at it for the whole year, or at least all the way back to March, they've
been struggling a little bit. So, the initial reaction was probably just a knee-jerk, and I think now we're seeing that it's actually kind of getting getting back towards that unchanged area.
>> Well, it was down to 122.
It's back up to 126, so you got that kind of rally, $4 rally, happening right now. That's a good thing. We'll keep our eye on it. All right, Walmart, Pete. We were talking at the beginning of the week about the big retail earnings that were coming our way, and it's declining
despite the fact that they did beat on Q2 earnings, basically earnings and revenue, sales.
They beat on both. Investors are focused on some of the softest comp store sales in years, however. That's apparently what they're focused on, Pete, because some cautious full-year guidance might also be contributing to a little
nervousness in Walmart. And Walmart was taking a hit for that, as you guys can see here, down from perhaps about 116 yesterday, Pete, to as low as 103.
>> Yeah, Um, you know, you're exactly right. I mean, I think you identified the the big major player on why this thing's looking the way it is to that move to the downside. I mean, they did beat down the top. They did beat on the bottom. But, you and I talk about this all the time.
One of those things was cops comp sell sales. The other is guidance. And the guidance for Q3 missed completely as far as the earnings were concerned. And it it basically reflected the idea that it's the slowest growth in 6 years. So, that's something, you know, and and does that make a little bit of sense? A little bit of sense, depending
on, you know, the economic situation out there because of the trade down effect that we all talked about. I've talked about it forever. John has as well. But, um, maybe, just maybe, uh, with with the change in oil and everything else, maybe there's a little bit less need to actually go to Walmart. Which it if you really read through that, maybe things
are a little more positive than we think. So, the trade down does have plenty of people there still cuz I still see all that oil in the parking lots, John, that's leaking out of these cars.
But, um, unfortunately, I think that guidance really was enough to make people say, "You know what? Not good." >> Yeah. And if they say not good, Pete, um, that's enough to push the stock down 13 bucks like it did today. Um, and we'll see if it finds its footing
down there. I say it's a bit of a buy down there myself, Pete.
Yeah. All right, let's take a look at what's going on with CF Industries because these guys are all about ammonia and nitrogen and things like that. What are they used for? Well, nitrogen in particular is a nutrient for crops, Pete. And CF Industries moving
higher today. It was up 8% early on. Uh, solid recent operational momentum.
That's what the CFO said. And the company reported a strong first half.
So, we like hearing that. And the fact that CF because of the fact that people are trying to squeeze more out of their land and obviously one of the ways to do that is with fertilizers like the kind CF can deliver. That's why we're seeing this stock kind of fighting the
otherwise downward trend today.
>> Yeah, high ammonia capacity utilization is another thing that they were talking about there John. I think the reality is that when it was all said and done, there's plenty of analysts out there who said, "You know what?
We're going to raise the price targets.
We kind of like what we see here. We like the numbers." The share repurchase is another thing, the dividend increases is another thing. So, there's plenty of positives that you could come away with on this one and you you know, strong first half of 2026, that's you can see that in the the chart to some degree even though that's very short, but it's
it's something that they are sitting probably in a pretty good space right now and I think that the analysts are are going to start hopping those numbers up pretty big John over the next couple of weeks probably just because of the fact that CF is maybe positioned pretty well.
>> Well, I'll say Pete, let's wind it up with Bitcoin because of course strategy, which was formerly MicroStrategy and it's MSTR, along with Coinbase, COIN, are two of the big movers today in the crypto
space. And why are they moving so strongly today Pete? Well, basically it pushed up over 72,000 today, the Bitcoin did, and roughly 18% for Coinbase over 24-hour period. And
Coinbase and strategy, like I say, they are tied to Bitcoin at the hip and they will move with Bitcoin.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, he knows it, you know it if you've been following this stock, folks. And if Michael Saylor and Mr. Armstrong are smiling, chances are it's because Bitcoin is up. Now, the president is really pushing the Clarity Act. And he wants this
because of course it defines what digital asset rules will be and certain investor groups will not own it, trade it, get into it at all until they have some clarity and hence the name the Clarity Act. Well, that's why the bullishness there is that
they think maybe something's happening with the Clarity Act, Pete. And we'll >> Yeah, I'll tell you what, John, with Bitcoin up about like you were saying I think like 14% this week. I mean, when you look at some of the numbers a lot there's a there's a short squeeze going on out there. And that's you know, the a
violent move. It was 64,000 on Tuesday.
Here we are on Thursday at 72,000.
So, gives you a little bit of an idea that Bitcoin's sort of making a nice move and it's a it's a spot that they haven't been in a while. They haven't been over 70,000 or at maybe at 72,000 since since June. So, that gives you some perspective of this big large move in just a short period of time, a couple of days. What else is maybe happening
there? Well, there's talk about a short squeeze being a one of the other positions that that's happening as well.
So, 18% in 2 days is not so bad. I don't care what stock it is. I don't care what it is whether it's a Coinbase or it's Bitcoin or whatever it is.
That's a hell of a move and I think I think people are probably getting a little bit nervous if you're on the bearish side of this thing. So, we'll see we'll see how this plays out, you know, over the next week or so, but yeah, let's keep an eye on this 72,000 level right now for Bitcoin.
>> Well, let's also see, Pete, if we've got any interest in these sports videos. I know it's one of your favorite things, um these sports videos, but I want you to check out this beast because, man, uh Ohio State, yeah, they get a lot of
great receivers and quarterbacks, so does the University of Texas, Pete, but it's not limited to them, but let's just take a look at the size and the skills that this guy brings to the uh NCAA party.
>> Cuz when you pair the Megatron of high school football alongside the best wide receiver in college football, well, we're about to find out.
>> We're Randy Moss.
>> Chris Henry is a 6'5 incoming freshman at Ohio State, and he's been learning a lot from Jeremiah Smith this offseason.
The five-star wide receiver is out of Mater Dei High School in California.
He's got NFL first-round talent written all over him. Chris has fantastic hands, allowing him to go up and get it, while also being able to make catches low to the ground as well.
>> And he's 6'5.
>> I mean, he was clearly the number two wide receiver [laughter] in his class. Now you pair him with Jeremiah Smith, a wide receiver who can truly do it all, you're looking at one of the best one-two punches in college football. Smith is going to draw a lot of attention, so Henry is going to get plenty of opportunities lining up next >> probably leave.
>> with hopeful Julian Sayin slinging them the rock, the Buckeyes offense is setting up to be an unstoppable force yet again this season.
>> Ah.
>> What happens when you pair the Megatron >> All they do is find receivers everywhere, John. They they they know But they know where to go, and I'll guarantee everybody in the country knew who this kid was. I mean, Mater Dei is one one of the best Mater Dei They're unbelievable, and when you're a 6'5 receiver who can run and and use your body the way he does it and
everything else, uh I would say this was born for Ohio State.
>> [laughter] >> It's just amazing. They do a great job, man, and all they got to do is say, "Hey, look, we're wide receiver university, right?" I mean, that that all of a sudden be Remember when it used to be USC is where if you're running back, that's where you're going to go?
>> [laughter] >> Back in the day, back in our day, or whatever.
All right, John. We got the NFL in front of us, and I thought we could with There's two different things. One of them is um the injuries in the NFL, and I don't know that people are really fully following this as much as I am, but you know, one thing is we're seeing the aggressiveness of a lot of fights, right? When you've got somebody coming in from somewhere else, you know, like
the the Ravens are out there with the Vikings. They were there yesterday. I believe they're they're today, and then they're going to play against one another. But um you know, that's fine. You know, you're just going against somebody new. You're trying to get a little feel. It changes up the camp and everything else, but John, they've reduced these practices.
You know how many practices they have legally per day? I I did three-a-days my last you two years in Tampa. We had three-a-days, which is ridiculous in a way.
But they don't do two-a-days, they do one-a-days, and then they do a walk-through. So, they're reducing the practices, and I wonder if there is a little something to this, John, because these guys are bigger, faster, stronger. I get it, so you can understand, well, that kind of brings along with it injuries.
But the injury table looks like this.
This is just a small little amount of you've got Jeremiah Love, he's got an ankle. You got Breece Hall, he's got a groin. You got Chuba Hubbard, he's got a hamstring uh hamstring.
You've got Kyle Monagai uh knee. You've got Jayden Higgins, Jordan Tyson. You get the idea. These are wide receivers, running backs, offensive line, all of it, and the injury numbers are absolutely exploding to the upside, and I I got to think there's something tied into that. And then there's certain
teams that have even more injuries per year than others, and you just got to wonder, somebody's got to look at this a little bit because it is hurting the NFL to some degree. It's still the best of all the sports, still has all the eyeballs and everything else that we talk about, but Tennessee Titans lead the entire NFL with injuries over the
last few years. The 49ers have been in the top 10 most injuries 12 of the last 13 seasons. The Giants in the last 10 years, they're also somebody who's leading. So, not so great with the injury world. And what do you think it is, John? Do you I think it has a lot to do with these guys
are not practicing like they used to in the two-a-days. There was something about that, you know? I mean, you do this in the first one, you do this in the second one, and and the body kind of adjusts a little bit faster to this whole thing. I I don't know exactly what it is. I'm sure they don't really know,
but I can tell you this, the volume of injuries has gone like this in the NFL.
So, any thoughts on this one?
>> Yeah, I have thoughts on it, Pete. Um I think uh they've addressed a lot of the head injury stuff uh in practice. You see people wearing the big padded helmets and things. Looks stupid, but it's probably a good idea because in a game situation, you're going to get hit in the head, and you're probably not wearing that big padded thing. Some
players do.
>> Yeah.
>> But um I think in practice, probably a good idea, especially if somebody's had a couple uh of concussions and things like that.
But yeah, the lower body injuries, a lot of that is, you know, unfortunately, turf related. And I'm not saying every one of these uh injuries are turf, but boy, I'm sure the players, if you asked them, they'd much rather be playing on grass than
AstroTurf, Pete. And you know, 80,000 people didn't pay to see this, to see to see a guy hauled off because he planted and his knee just kept traveling towards the end zone while he was trying to make a cut to the right or to the left. So,
yeah, injuries are part of it. It's a sad part of it, but uh hopefully they can address that as much as they've tried to address the uh concussion protocols, Pete.
>> Yeah. Yeah, the rest of the body. It's that's damn important. Obviously, your brain's number one, but after that, there's still a lot of injuries that I think that probably could be prevented.
As far as um the NFL, I got one other thing I was just going to point out. The the the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, John, one of the things that was floating around out there was um they got two guys that hadn't been signed yet once they went to camp. And one was the quarterback, and the other is the defensive tackle, Vita Vea. Now,
the guy's an absolute freak show. He's 6'5, he's 355 lb. You got him in the middle of the field, John. I'll tell you what, that guy's going to stuff that offense pretty good as a defensive tackle, which is why he's a two-time Pro Bowler and all the rest of it. And he was looking for a little bit more money because, you know what, he's realizing,
you know what, I've been here a while.
Um this might be my last contract here or whatever, and so there was possibilities would they trade him, would they do something with him?
Anybody in the NFL be fooled not to want him. It's just a matter of what can you pay him, what can you afford to pay him right now? Well, Buccaneers finally decided that they could find a little bit of scratch for him, John. They gave him a one-year $30 million extension yesterday. So, uh that's going to be there. I think
he's a game changer defensively for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that's going to really be helpful as they get through the season cuz he's big, he's strong, he's fast. Don't look at how many sacks he has. Don't look at how many tackles he makes. That guy takes up three players.
>> [laughter] >> You know, he's sitting there right on the center while the center and both guards are probably looking straight at that guy on almost almost every play.
So, um I think it was a smart move by the Buccaneers. I would have thought it was a very stupid move had they allowed him to get away from them and go play somewhere else. So, it just shows you, but I think that elevates the Bucks that much more, John, that now I think they're a playoff team. How about you?
>> Well, how about the quarterback?
>> Yeah, they need that. They got to have that kind that side. But, he's not holding out. He just he's just looking to make more money, but so we'll see how that plays out. But, I think I think he's I think he's better than a lot of other people probably think.
>> Well, and we'll see uh whether or not he is, Pete, because he lost Mike Evans.
That's a great All-Pro multi-year All-Pro receiver. He lost him to the uh 49ers.
Um you know, there are some uh running backs like uh Rachaad White that also left. So, I think the world of Baker Mayfield, I think he's proved the world wrong a number of times.
But, they better have some people stepping up for those two, Pete, for White and for Evans because if they don't, it's going to be a long season for the Bucks because like you say, they're you know, keeping uh the big stuffer in the middle for the defense is
a good move, but now you got to say who do you have to fill those shoes on the offense?
>> Yeah, the Buccaneers John, I'll tell you what, Baker Mayfield, we'll find out.
You're right, we'll find out. But, do they have enough weapons?
That's that's the difficult part of it right now, but their defense is going to be solid, I can tell you that.
>> Absolutely. Well, thanks for joining us, folks. We will be back Monday next week.
Um and I'd encourage all of you to go on over to that page uh for the RebelCon 2026 because if you go there and you check out what we've got, uh the speakers we have already, the new speakers that we'll be adding each week,
I think you'll be so impressed and the price point along with a great offer from the casino, the hotel and casino Circa for you to get a great room rate there and so forth.
It's October 19th. If you want to watch the Monday Night Football game in the swimming pools at stadium swim as they call it at Circa or officially the conference starts on Tuesday the 20th and then winds up on Wednesday the 21st
of October. So make sure you check it out folks and Pete and I will be back.
What time Monday Pete?
>> 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time John. We'll be here Monday Monday through Thursday baby.
>> Bang.

Transcript from the show's YouTube captions; automatic captions may contain errors. Educational content, not investment advice.