Rebels Edge · Thu, Jul 30, 2026
Why Microsoft Just Overpowered Meta
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Jon and Pete Najarian discuss a technology-led market rebound, explaining how Microsoft's larger market-cap gain outweighed Meta's decline in capitalization-weighted indexes. They review earnings, AI infrastructure spending and leveraged-account liquidations, then turn to prediction-market activity, sports sponsorships and NFL quarterback competition.
- The hosts report the Nasdaq rising over 2% while the VIX falls roughly 10%.
- Microsoft's larger market-cap gain is presented as outweighing Meta's selloff and supporting capitalization-weighted indexes.
- Microsoft receives praise for earnings and revenue beats, positive sentiment and a reported backlog exceeding $678 billion.
- Meta faces concerns over heavy capital spending, rising expenses, margin pressure, softer guidance and free cash flow.
- The hosts attribute part of the AI-stock downturn to leveraged-account liquidations in South Korea and suggest that selling pressure could be nearing exhaustion.
- Silicon Motion reportedly rallies more than 24% following strong sales, earnings and guidance.
- The hosts question unusually large Polymarket betting volume on Ethiopia's next prime minister, raising an unverified money-laundering suspicion.
- Sports coverage includes JPMorgan Chase and SoFi college sponsorships, baseball revenue disparities and Jack Strand's potential opportunity in Atlanta.
Full transcript
Welcome back to today's Rebel's Edge, where a big move to the upside by Microsoft overcomes a big move of the same percentage to the downside out of Meta. Now, I wonder why that is. Well, Pete and I will break it down for you,
as well as sports and a prediction market prediction that might surprise you on today's Rebel's Edge.
>> [music] [music] [laughter] >> Welcome back, folks.
Nice to have you here.
We are Jon Najarian and Pete Najarian, and this is the Rebel's Edge. Jared producing it. Great job, Jared.
And we've got a lot to cover, Pete, because we've got earnings, we've got one of the up-and-coming hedge fund guys that was absolutely explosive to the upside.
Well, now he's much like that Taco Bell, EXPLOSIVE TO THE DOWNSIDE.
>> [laughter] >> AND WE'RE GOING to cover all of it for you right now. So, let's start with macro. And Pete, global indices are higher. The Nasdaq is up over 2% today, and that's despite the fact that Meta is trading to the downside hard.
>> Yeah.
>> Well, we're going to cover that, but those are interesting stats, are they not, Pete?
>> They are interesting, and technology itself is up 5% or it was up 5%. It's up still very close to that, 4 and 1/2, 5% we'll call it, but yeah, I mean, a lot of the names that people were saying that they were selling off, well, they they may have sold them off a little bit, but those are the same names that
are absolutely stacking it up today.
Seagate, Western Digital, and throwing a little Sandisk, and you know, names like that, NBIS, and Coreweave. I mean, I'll tell you what, uh it's pretty dang strong day for the Nasdaq, and then and a good bounce for the Nasdaq as well.
>> Little bit of a heartbeat heartbeat, eh Pete?
>> Yeah.
Up, down, up, down, but the down might be over, or pretty close to over. And we'll have a better explanation uh when we get to the Cospi, which is coming up right after prediction markets. Let's talk, Pete, about the Vix. So, uh the Nasdaq rallies, the S&P rallies,
what happens to the Vix?
>> The Vix gets slammed.
The Vix The Vix got up AND IT'S IT'S GOT UP there a couple of times. It gets to 20, doesn't seem to go very much past 20, you know, when it does make those pops. It gets a little bit past, you can see it right there. But, uh it is amazing how far it it got hit, and so so quickly, John. And we're talking about big moves to the downside. Now, it's
kind of evened out, and let's just call it just underneath. It's like 1850 last I looked. I think that's uh a little bit different right now. Maybe it Maybe it has moved up to But, either way, the Vix itself down about 10% on the day, John.
So, pretty strong movement there for all the right reasons. We're seeing what the what's happening with the market, and we see what's happening still with many of the earnings that are still crushing it.
And uh obviously, when we get around to Microsoft, we're going to be talking about what they actually did this past quarter. Uh not so bad, as it turns out.
>> Well, as far as prediction markets, Pete, um this is a real head-scratcher here, because, you know, if somebody wants to bet on the midterms, or bet on uh a variety of political or other sorts
of things, Polymarket's there for you.
Uh so, is uh Kelshi. But, this one on Polymarket really kind of strange, Pete, because whoever wants to bet on the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Some people, no no doubt, some people, but $250 million
worth of bets? I mean, I should have sent Jared that uh that scene from uh uh uh The Wolf of Wall Street, Pete, where uh the now rest in peace uh ROB REINER GOES, "25,000 IN SIGNS? SIGNS?
>> [laughter] >> YEAH, BUT DID THEY DID THEY CURE CANCER?" HE SAID, "YES, IN FACT, THEY DID cure cancer. They did that." Um $250 million worth of bets on who's going to be the next Prime Minister in Ethiopia? And look at the line. It's straight. It's
not like, "Oh, all of a SUDDEN HE CAME OUT OF NOWHERE AND HE JUST JUMPS $250 million I tell you what, Pete, this smacks to me of maybe money laundering or something, cuz who the heck is betting $250 million? So, in other words, a quarter
of a billion dollars have been bet on who the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia's going to be, and you can go back months and months and it hasn't changed hardly. So, why all the money being bet on this? Any idea?
>> I GOT NO IDEA.
>> [laughter] >> SOMETIMES YOU JUST GOT TO BE honest and you don't know the answer to a question, and then this is one of them.
And I like that WTF that you added [laughter] in there to this whole thing.
>> WTF?
>> I mean, honestly, you're right.
>> [laughter] >> Well, let's dive into um what has been driving the AI market to the downside, Pete, because we've We've about the heartbeat market. We've identified that hey, as long as you're patient, don't buy them when they're up big, buy them when they're down big because
pretty soon, you know, might even be the very next session, they're right back to the upside, which is of course the case today. Well, I'll throw out a name, Pete. Leopold Aeschmannbrenner. This is a guy um who was an AI infrastructure guy and
he figured out, you know what? I know so much about uh AI, I am going to start placing bets through my stock trading.
And eventually, in uh 2024, he leaves OpenAI and he says, "Heck, I'm starting a hedge fund." The hedge fund grew to 45 billion. People said this guy absolutely knows and or his AI agents, if you will, in quotes, um can go out there and trade better,
faster than anyone.
Then tragedy struck. And that tragedy was the same thing that hit 1.2 million leveraged retail accounts in South Korea because this is a fact, folks. 1.2
million leveraged accounts in South Korea got margin calls uh as of July 13th. Well, here we are at the end of the month. If you take a look at how that's played out, you'll see that and and this is, by the way, from Goldman Sachs. This isn't like Zero Hedge or
anything else. This is Goldman Sachs saying that these poor people were completely leveraged long in these names like SK Hynix and others, and they've been the ones that have been that are being liquidated on a day-by-day basis.
That's why their market's down 44%.
Biggest drop in its history. Well, not in a single day, but, you know, over the course of a month. Worst month ever.
Well, if you let people take extraordinary leverage and they're wrong and they keep doubling down and you've got this Leopold guy that's kind of the same way here in the United States, um you're going to see some real damage. And that's why I say, maybe Pete, we are
near the bottom of that AI swoon because it was these margin accounts being liquidated. I'm sure there are Americans that were being liquidated as well. But 1.2 million Korean accounts being liquidated, no wonder it's down 8% a day, every single day
since July 13th.
>> It's getting hammered. It's been a terrible week, month, couple months, whatever you want to go with, John. The last month as far as I I last looked, it was it was down as much as something north of 30 some odd percent or whatever it was. I mean, it it's just been a really, really horrific as they've been
liquidating these accounts. And you know, like you said, it it's coming from pretty damn critical somebody who's really got a lot of credit, I think, Goldman Sachs. So, I look at that, I look at the total liquidation side of this whole thing, and man, these guys are absolutely
getting uh just beaten like like I've never seen before, unfortunately. And I only laugh because otherwise you'd cry because these are real people and a pretty decent percentage of of all the South Koreans adult population. It's over 3 and 1/2% or about 3 and 1/2%, something like that, John. So, are they
getting beat up? Oh, yeah, these guys are getting beat up. But, as you said, by looking at that, at some point, that ends, and that all of a sudden turns into something else to the upside.
>> Absolutely, because it's not be- I mean, you've got Meta, and we'll get to that. Uh Meta spending like crazy, Google spending like crazy.
Um all of these data center plays, hyperscalers, whatever you want to call them, um ramping up like crazy. You know who isn't? Apple. You know who's at all-time highs? Apple. You know who isn't? Let's see. Google.
>> [laughter] >> Um taking a look at all of the players, if you will, Meta, that are spending, you know, 100 billion, 200 billion in a quarter on this.
So, you really think that uh the companies that are selling that stuff are not doing well?
I think they're doing really well. But anyway, let's talk about Microsoft, Pete. Microsoft, the reason that the Nasdaq can be up 2% with Meta down 10% is the following. There are 7.4
mil billion shares of Microsoft. Let me say that again, 7.4 billion shares. So, if you were to say, take 7.4 billion and multiply it by the uh uh price that Meta
has, or rather that Microsoft has moved today, which is $59, you'll get that it is [laughter] about $407 billion upside momentum for a capitalization-based index like the S&P.
Meta only has about 2 and 1/2 billion shares, Pete. It's a lot, but that's why a 10% move there is nothing compared to the move in Microsoft. But the Microsoft move is extraordinary, right, Pete?
>> Yeah, we're talking 15-plus percent or whatever, depending on the moment that you're looking at everything. But uh Microsoft, they beat on the earnings, they beat on the revenue, you know, that that was all um really, really impressive what they were able to do.
But I think it's this whole thing about sentiment, too, John. You know, it it it seems like everything that they talked about felt very, very positive. So, when you've got a backlog of over 678 billion dollars worth, >> [laughter] >> I would say that's a pretty nice
backlog. And it supports the growth into the future. So, looking at all that and looking at how this go and the sentiment itself just being as positive as it is, this intelligence cloud Azure that we we've talked about for many, many years now. I mean, that that used to be something we talked about all the time.
And then all of a sudden it's AI. It's data centers and everything else. But, this is an amazing move. I mean, for what they are and how big they are for this stock to be doing what it's doing, John. Um it's well above those 52-week lows because they had struggled for a little while, but this has taken them out of that struggle, I'd say, pretty nicely.
>> Yeah. When you're spending as much as they're spending without beating that horse any harder, um you're going to see some people that aren't happy with that kind of CapEx spend. But, uh again, it goes into the rearview mirror pretty quick, especially when you look at the kind of numbers they put up this time. All right, let's let's hit
that Meta beat. Uh they've already hit it. I mean, it's responsible for over a hundred billion dollars in downside pressure because, of course, 55 dollars times 2.4 billion shares, that's where we're getting that number. So, you can see
that the Microsoft move is four times bigger. So, even if you negate a hundred million billion, rather, of the Microsoft move, you've still got 300 billion to the upside out of Microsoft comparing it, of course, to the loss of over a
hundred billion in uh Meta. But, basically, the earnings release, solid.
Uh their revenue, solid.
The company is going to be spending an awful lot of money. It might be the most money any company has ever spent, Pete, in a quarter or a year. And Zuckerberg is a madman because you and I can remember when he spent 12 billion dollars on the metaverse and changed the
name of the company from Facebook to Meta. Well, now he is spending multiples of that, probably 10 times that number every quarter just to stay in the hyperscaler space. And some quarters it's paid off, but not this one.
>> Yeah, and when you look at it, John, they've got margin pressure, that's number one. Then they've got guidance that's not great, it's a little bit soft, that's not good ever, we talk about that every time we see somebody who's missed, and that's where they've whiffed. And and it's it's it's really too bad that they they they the the spend is just
unbelievable. And you know, I think that there's a lot of different aspects to this whole thing, and because of that spend, by the way, now all of a sudden you look at that free cash flow and you're looking at that going, "Huh, that might be slightly concerning as well." So, are they spending? Yes, they're spending like like they've never spent before. But,
can he pull out of this thing? At some point, maybe, but I'll tell you, it's going to take something to be able to get this thing back on track. And you could see by that that chart that was put up there, it was already trailing down, this just added even more to that trail to the downside. So, Meta's one of those where I think we
keep an eye on it, a close eye on it, and and want to see what happens from unusual options that might come into it, but that all being said, it's going to be very, very interesting, I think, going forward, and it might take a quarter or two for them to actually get themselves back into a position that they'd like to be in, which is a a
higher than than they are right now.
>> Pete, when you imagine this, 55% increase in expenses.
>> And it was already high.
>> Yeah, and it was already, you know, eye-wateringly high. And all of a sudden you throw 55% increase in expenses, again, back to ROB REINER.
>> 25,000 IN SALES?
DID THEY CURE CANCER?
>> [laughter] >> 55% INCREASE IN EXPENSES, DID THEY CURE CANCER? [screaming] >> [laughter] >> THE ANSWER IS NO.
>> NO.
>> NO matter what his sidekick said, they didn't cure cancer. All right. Let's hit one more, Pete, Silicon Motion Technology. Um, not silicon.
Silicon.
>> [laughter] >> Um, they reported strong second quarter results. Net sales 451 million, that's 32% increase. Those are amazing numbers when you hear that. And for these guys that basically have embedded
controllers and things like that for solid state drives and all that sort of thing for computers, this is a big deal.
And apparently enough to drive the stock stock up better than 24% so far, Pete.
>> Yeah, it's on a great run, John.
Absolutely incredible run. You talked about the quarter-over-quarter, how about the year-over-year being up about 127%?
So, you know, on their sales. These guys have have really done an amazing job. They've made a nice turn as well.
Strong sales for automotive, their earnings were blowout. I mean, there's you look around, you're trying to say, all right, so what am I am I missing something on the negative side? I I couldn't find anything that was negative John. So, that's why this stock is suddenly up 24%. It's trading last I looked it was about close to 260, 261,
something like that. A lot closer to that 52-week high than the 52-week low and it's making a nice move in that direction. So, yeah, this one this is one heck of a quarter. I mean, they they did what they needed to do in a big way.
So, very very impressed by what they were able to do and the guidance was strong.
>> Yeah, certainly very very strong. Well, let's do a little sports as we wind up into what is usually your weekend Pete and mine because we'll be traveling sometime tomorrow.
Let's take a look at a video of Ohio State cuz I thought you'd like this one Pete because everybody's got a price, so they say, but apparently Ohio State has a very high price and I'm not just saying the $17 million
that per year the JP Morgan's going to give them. When they saw the the JP Morgan Chase patch on their uniforms was going to be a certain color, they said, "We don't care how much money you're giving us. We're not doing that." >> You have got to listen to this.
>> And I said, "Absolutely not. We're not doing this." >> Ohio State is cashing in. The Buckeyes new partnership with JP Morgan Chase is reportedly worth nearly $17 million per year and includes jersey patches across all 36 varsity sports. But, there was one non-negotiable. The logo wasn't going to be blue. Ryan Day reportedly
shut that idea down immediately.
"Absolutely not. We're not doing this." Why? Because in Columbus, blue isn't just a color, it's Michigan. Instead, both Ohio State and Chase agreed they had no interest in putting a blue logo on a Buckeye uniform. Some traditions aren't for sale. Not even for $17 million a year.
>> Then I saw the logo.
>> $17 million and Pete he was saying, "We'll walk away. If you want that thing in blue which is your corporate colors, God bless you, but we are not putting that on an Ohio State jersey." >> My guess is it's red already.
>> [laughter] >> Yep, it is.
>> Well, John that that brings us perfectly into something else. They are not the only ones in college football doing this and they got $17 million. That's a big number. Well, what if what if Notre Dame gets involved and they are Notre Dame says, "You know what?
$18 million bucks for the patch on the jersey after following up the $17 million that Ohio State. This is SoFi and they're going after it John. I mean JP Morgan was with Ohio State. SoFi's over there with with Notre Dame. I think it's really really interesting to see now some of
the loyalists of Notre Dame are really ticked off about this whole thing. But they are. I mean they're like well >> up.
>> We got Hey, I'm with you. I'm I'm with you. But but they're they're pretty angry about. They're like, "You know, we don't need the money. Why are we doing that?" Or whatever. Well, maybe you do need the money. I mean taking as much money as you can I guess or whatever. Um as long as it's the right color and all the rest of that kind of stuff.
[laughter] Which makes it kind of a fun fun conversation, but um I'll tell you what, I don't think we're done John. I know these two have talked about the patches and everything and they you know, that was something that was approved not long ago. I think it's something that we're going to see more and more and more whether we like it or not and I'm not a huge fan. I mean
I get it. People who have Nike as their you know, they they got the swoosh and they've got this that and the other if it's Adidas and all those kind of things, but this is just a big patch from somebody way outside of things.
They aren't they aren't part of the outfit. So, now they are, I guess, because these patches have become something that is a heck of a nice chunk of money that they're going to have, right? I mean, what do you think about this whole thing?
>> Well, um the Cubs, Pete, like Notre Dame, um were famously not willing to do any of that stuff.
>> Mhm.
>> Um it was Wrigley Field, people wanted to rename it, they wouldn't sell the naming rights. Now, uh with the new ownership in the last uh decade or so, are they willing to sell it? Nope, still known as Wrigley Field.
And starting in 2007, the first money they took in, Pete, was from Under Armour.
Um so, they didn't rename the park, but they became a quote legacy partner of the Cubs. And that was in 2007. Now, uh basically, uh 2024 through 2026, Under Armour um
is not listed under major Wrigley Field or Cubs sponsorships anymore. They used to be on the outdoor or on the uh doors uh where the uh lawnmowers and things like that would come out of, Pete. But they're no more. Um now, Nike is now the
official on-field provider for Major League teams. So, you can kind of including the Cubs. So, you can kind of see how um that might be a problem.
Um but uh for the most part, as we have told you folks many times, they don't share. Um this is one of the few things that they do share. They don't share TV revenue.
>> Right.
>> Um the only time uh so, the YES Network and the others that really benefit the Mets and the Yankees and probably some of the ones in Southern California, um great. But what about Minneapolis? What about Cincinnati?
You know, what about a number of these teams in the smaller markets that don't have TV revenue? Eventually, they are not going to be able to compete. They just can't because the tickets would have to be 500 a piece instead of something that would put butts in the seats, which is, you know, $40, that kind of thing.
>> Yeah.
>> Uh without the TV money, Pete, this is going to be really hard on baseball, I think.
>> Yeah. Yeah.
Well, John, as far as football, going back to football because I'll tell you what, now that these practices are are started and everybody's all excited about it and they're getting after it right out of the gate and there's been fights already in multiple different places, you know, within the same team, you know, like some some corner gets mad at a safety or, you know, and a wide
receiver and it's like, "Hey, man, you guys got to relax a little bit or whatever." Although, I got to be honest with you, I was I'm a big fan of that kind of I used to fight all the time.
>> Yeah.
>> But anyway, just the other day, John, you and I were talking about all these quarterbacks, right?
All these quarterbacks and we were talking about these teams, there's four, five, six teams that they don't even know who quarterback one is on their roster.
Well, how about this for something that's pretty interesting, John. I I was looking at this Atlanta.
So, Atlanta was one of the names that we talked about. We were we were saying, "Okay, we don't know Is it Penix? Is it Tua?" Well, yesterday practice, I think number one, maybe number two, but I think it was number one, Tua has a back issue. So, that's a problem, right? So, he's he's out for a while, you know, not forever, but it
it's probably going to be something that's nagging on him all season would be my guess. Then you've got Penix and Penix all of a sudden walks off because his ACL doesn't feel all that good that he had surgery on at the end of the year last year. So, that's a little bit of a problem. So, that's QB1 and QB2, however you can put it in whatever, you know,
you want. Then they get decided, we're going to get rid of our third-string quarterback, this kid Simeon. They released him.
>> From Northwestern, I think, right?
>> Yep. Yep. Good player, but, you know, for whatever reason, they they decided they're not going to stick with him.
You and I talked about this kid not too many months ago, but there's a kid named Jack Strand. Now, Jack Strand is from Minnesota Moorhead, >> [laughter] >> which is a Division II school all the
way up damn near into Canada, right?
Now, Jack is 6'5, he's 240 lb, he's a 22-year-old kid who's extremely athletic, he's thrown for 13,000 yd in college. I know it's DII. I don't really care that much about that, though. He's playing made They're playing real football, and they played, you know,
they they play at a next level that's still very impressive. 126 touchdowns, John, in 42 games. This kid knows how to run with the football, knows how to throw with the football. By the way, his GPA, his grades at at at the university, 3.87.
So, smart, big, athletic, and these other guys are all hurt. He has a really, really interesting shot to get a little bit of playing time in there.
They did sign Cooper Rush, but I find this whole thing Well, they needed another quarterback who's got legs, man.
>> [laughter] >> Hey, that's why I think they got rid of Simeon. They they ended up getting Cooper Rush. And Cooper Rush has had a great career as this backup guy, right?
Who can come in and actually execute pretty well, I'd say. So, that's why he's still doing it at age like 36 or 38 or something like that. I know he's in his 30s, mid-30s, I think. So, anyway, John, I look at this whole thing. Do you think they're going to give Jack Strand uh opportunity to really show what he's
got, I agree. So, what do you think? I mean, if he can get those receivers to buy into the fact that he is a damn good quarterback, forget that he's from D2. Who cares? If this kid can play the way he played, um I think it could get kind of interesting down there in Atlanta,
because has Tua really shown us a lot?
Not really. Has Penix showed us he's he's pretty decent. He's a pretty decent quarterback, but the injuries are are starting to stack up and that's not good. Plus, he was one of those guys who when he got out of college, he was already about 24, 25 years old, cuz he bounced around at so many schools, John.
So, I like this kid, Jack Strand. I think this could get kind of interesting down in Atlanta.
>> Yeah, I would agree. It's uh um rare to find a guy that's 6'5", 245, um that uh has the kind of numbers, like you said, 123 touchdowns or whatever. Um the guy's a >> beast.
>> Um and you still have to put that ball in that little tiny box like that, uh when the receiver's open. And if he can do that, which we know he can, then the question is, can he read defenses?
>> Yeah.
>> And I don't know how great Tua was at reading defenses.
>> Not very.
>> Um I think he was a very good pro quarterback, but I don't know how good he was at reading defenses, Pete. And I think, you know, obviously the kid took a lot of shots >> Yeah.
>> and you know, like like we said off air before the show started, Billy Ray Smith, you know, uh >> Jeez.
>> RIP. A lot of guys that take too many hits, like Penix, um unfortunately, like Tua, unfortunately, um a lot of those guys, it's not just the physical, it's here.
Um do they rattle the brain enough to where they get that CTE? That's what ended up taking down Billy Ray Smith, Pete.
>> Yeah.
>> And a great player for Lou Holtz at Arkansas and then played for the Chargers, I think. Great player.
>> Yeah.
>> Dead. Early '60s.
Um so, yeah, it's uh I think a a big strong quarterback like this, can he learn to read the defenses if those coaches are spending time with him? My answer is yes. He's got the talent, he can do it.
>> Yeah. It'll be great. I'd love I'd love to see a fair competition for him to get the opportunity and it's going to be in front of him right now because it's going to be he and Cooper for at least a couple of practices or more, maybe. Uh you know, maybe they rest those other two just hoping that they can recover from whatever injuries they've got,
right? Back injury, knee, you know, after you did a a a full ACL. So, it could get pretty interesting, John, and if that kid can step up, >> [clears throat] >> all of a sudden he can they can get rid of a lot of money on that on that roster by getting rid of one or two of those guys in front of him. It
could get It could get damn interesting down there in Atlanta, but anyway, a lot of fun, you know, the early part of the NFL and we'll see what's going on. I've got plans to be with the Vikings and um they're with Baltimore, John, when they get together. I think it's the 12th of August. So, I was asked to to come on over there and and do a few things. So,
that that'll be pretty fun, I think, into the future. A couple weeks away.
>> Cool. Well, enjoy, Pete. That's going to be special.
>> Yeah.
>> Uh and uh we appreciate all of you guys.
You guys are special to us. We'll be putting out some information shortly about what's on the screen behind me.
That's Circa Casino and their sports book. We've got a deal that we're going to be announcing very soon, my friends.
So, uh stay tuned for that. And in the meantime, Pete, what time are we back on Monday?
>> 1:00 p.m. Eastern time, John. We're going to be here. We're always on time and we're looking forward to it and we're looking forward to the weekend as well.
>> Thank you.
>> Yeah.
>> Bang.
See you then, folks.
>> [music]
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