Rebels Edge · Wed, Aug 5, 2026

Why SpaceX Stock Just Fell

Summary

The hosts review earnings, rising equities and gold, easing volatility, and expectations for the upcoming jobs report. They attribute a reported SpaceX share decline to heavy capital spending and an approaching lockup expiration, then discuss Shopify, Arista Networks, and CDW before closing with baseball and football commentary.

Gold reportedly rose 3% and GDX 5.5%, while the hosts credited strong corporate earnings with supporting the broader market.
The hosts linked falling oil prices with easing volatility and placed the VIX near 16.
Prediction-market discussion focused on job growth above 60,000–70,000; Pete considered a reading above 80,000 less likely.
The transcript claims SpaceX reported $7.8 billion in revenue and over $18.4 billion in quarterly capital spending. The hosts cited spending and an approaching lockup expiration as concerns; John expressed interest in buying below $100.
Shopify reportedly delivered 34% revenue growth and over $650 million in free cash flow; the hosts highlighted previously observed September $140 call buying.
Arista Networks reportedly beat revenue and earnings estimates, but the hosts argued its substantial pre-earnings rally limited the subsequent upside.
The hosts attributed CDW’s sharp selloff to its CFO’s planned retirement and considered the reaction excessive given otherwise solid results and no alleged scandal.
Sports coverage included the Lombard brothers’ home runs, Darnell Wright’s Bears contract, and Notre Dame’s playoff prospects.

GDX DIS SHOP AMD CAT PFE TMUS T VZ ANET CDW

Full transcript

Welcome back to the Rebel's Edge. Pete and I are going to break down for you why SpaceX broke down and the rest of today's top stories and stocks, some sports, and of course prediction markets on today's Rebel's Edge.
>> [music] [music] >> Well, for those of you who noticed >> [laughter]
>> I am one of the only owners, Pete, of all 27 Yankees championship rings.
>> That's not bad.
>> [laughter] >> And I am because I bid for it in a whatchamacallit, a silent auction for charity, AND NOBODY OUTBID ME.
>> [laughter] >> SO, UH >> HERE IT IS.
>> You know, if you happen to see me walking around New York City [laughter] with it I'll be there tonight, by the way.
>> [laughter] >> So, I can only imagine some of our pals, Pete, if they were to see these and go, "WHAT THE HECK?" >> [laughter] >> I MIGHT have to stop by the NASDAQ tonight, Pete, just to eat just to give those guys a hard time. Oh, uh how are YOU GUYS DOING?
>> [laughter] >> I LIKE IT. I LIKE IT.
>> [laughter] >> WELL, let's dive into macro, Pete, and speaking of gold Uh gold up 3% today, the GDX, which is the miners, they always move more than gold itself nearly 100% of the time.
5.5% to the upside for the GDX and the Nikkei moving up higher, the Dow up 600 points. I mean, you know, what's not to like, Pete?
>> Well, and and John, you know what? From a macro perspective, and I'm looking at earnings, all they do is beat. I mean, they come in, they crush it, they come in, they crush it. I mean, Disney and Shopify and AMD and Caterpillar and Pfizer and you know what? And we're still We still got plenty of big names coming up in front of us. So, we see this momentum start to work pretty well.
Now, we've given back a little bit on the Nasdaq cuz it was flying all along pretty nicely, and it's pulled back to just in the basically green, but the Dow still up over 500 points, and this is day three of that kind of action. So, yeah, I would say that these earnings are are giving people a lot a lot more comfort than they probably
have, you know, 2 years ago cuz they've been big ever since.
>> That's right. Well, so commodities doing well.
Obviously, that has an impact, Pete, on the VIX, the volatility metric, because, you know, crude oil, gold, Bitcoin for that matter, they all kind of play into it a little, but the S&P 500 movement, that's what you're tracking in the VIX.
>> Yeah, absolutely. And you know, we're we're watching the price of oil because that and the VIX are very been tied together pretty well, and price of oil has been coming down. All of a sudden, you see the VIX coming down, right? And we're somewhere right now, we'll call it somewhere in the the low 16s.
We were in the mid 50s just yesterday.
We've been in the low 16s. We got all the way up to like 17.5. We pulled back a little bit off of that, John. And I'd say that where we are right now makes a lot of sense because the the S&P was up significantly. It was up huge yesterday, 100-plus points.
So, sitting somewhere near that 16 level makes a lot of sense, and I think even even a little bit more than 16. Yeah, that that makes a little bit of sense as well. So, given what's going on with the S&P, which right now is up about a quarter of a percent, um I think it I think it still makes sense where we're trading right now.
>> Well, uh we of course have the jobs report coming our way on uh Friday, Pete. And the range is 70,000 to 100,000.
Um which isn't a wild range, you know, 30,000 jobs. That's not a wild range.
We've seen much wilder. Um but uh on Kalshi, people that are wagering there say 60% chance basically or 59% chance that it's above 60,000 jobs created, above 70, 54% chance, above 80,
48% chance or 40% chance. Um where do you think we're going to come in on the jobs, Pete, now that we've seen an easing in crude oil, not just in this week, cuz this is of course a month backwards-looking. But we were seeing crude oil come down rather dramatically
in uh that month as well.
>> I could see it being above 60. Hell, I think I could I could see it even going up above 70, John.
Um I think it'll be interesting to see how this plays out, but uh it it makes some sense to me. And obviously, we've seen some gains of late, especially on those those first couple with the above 60 and the above 70. I mean, they're both up 22. Uh so yeah, I think people are are probably right on what they're thinking about what these jobs really look like
right now. It should be pretty interesting. Above 80,000, I I would say that is a long shot. I I don't even know if 40% makes makes that the grade for me. I think I'd be somewhere closer to 25% or something for that.
>> Well, let's dive into SpaceX, Pete. Um first quarterly earnings as a public company yesterday after the close. They beat revenue estimates Uh they with 7.8 billion dollars up sharply because year-over-year they actually did track
it. It wasn't publicly traded then, but they did track it and report it. Um as many companies do when they're going to come public. Well, uh that wasn't the bad news.
Um the bad news at least according to some is the capital expenditure, Pete, of uh over 18.4 billion in the quarter.
Um people looked at that and they kind of said, "Hmm, I think I'm going to take some profits here cuz it was up nine or 10 dollars yesterday." And basically it round tripped that today, Pete, giving back 10 dollars right here at 1:15 basically. Uh what do you think of these earnings?
>> I think that the earnings they kind of make sense, John. You can understand why people are a little bit frustrated with, "Hey man, this CapEx is a little bit out of hand." And and and probably more than a little bit out of hand. But, let's also remember it's Elon Musk. That is what he does. I mean, their revenue was up 92% year-over-year. He's He's
predicting that their revenue, John, is going to be a a trillion dollars by 2030. So, um there there is a lot of reasons why, you know, you you could say, "Well, this is Elon. This is Elon Musk. He's proven it before in what he's done and he and maybe he's going to be able to do it again." What do you think I got one real quicky for you though. The lockup expires tomorrow.
Uh do we expect >> Not completely, but it doubles the amount of shares that are out there. Um I think, Pete, I was seeing that it's about 35% of the shares that are out there are lent, meaning somebody sold and in hopes of buying it back cheaper.
Um obviously today that's working out. We traded down to a low of about 107 a couple days ago, Pete.
Um I think the lockup expiring, that's what everybody's, you know, pinning their hopes on on the bearish side.
>> Yeah.
>> Um we'll keep an eye on that, but I would caution some of those people, Pete, because Elon already lets me and anybody with a T-Mobile use his satellites. Uh if I don't have a signal, I can use his satellites,
uh the Starlink, of course, which is part of SpaceX. Now, his the president of SpaceX, a woman, she said, "You know, if if you're AT&T or if you're Verizon, you kind of got to be worried about us because we could provide service around the world with no
dead spots and no countries charging more. We could just say, 'Hey, okay, 55 bucks a month, who wants to come on in?' or whatever." >> Yeah.
>> But I mean, she's actively saying it now, Pete. That's the quiet part out loud. They could do that in a heartbeat.
>> Yeah.
>> So, if it trades down big tomorrow on the lockup expiring, Pete, I will be in there buying. I just will.
I've traded this one already. I was lucky enough to be in puts as it ran to the upside and sold some calls, and now I'm going to say, "Okay, if you guys want to give it to me below 100," which they might, who knows, "I'll take it and I'll trade it trade the range again." >> That
That That could be the Kelsey thing for tomorrow is does it get to double digits?
Yeah, that'd be interesting.
>> It would. It would.
All right, Shopify, Pete.
>> Yeah.
>> Strong quarterly results, 34% revenue increase to 3.58 billion, well above analyst estimates.
Gross merchandise volume, they always have these little acronyms like GMV.
It grew 32% year-over-year. I've never heard anybody else use that, by the way.
But, we it turns out had unusual activity.
And we had it when this was a $90 stock, people.
So, if you look there on the middle of May, they were buying the 95 the September 140 calls, and the stock was 95. Today, the stock is um what, $50 plus, people? And
it's a good day for anybody that had any of those calls, even if they bought lower strike calls. It's a home run.
>> Yep. Yep, absolutely incredible. Well, you you you talked about the revenue being strong, it was. You talked about the earnings being strong, it also was.
They talked about as well, John, their free cash flow that they're very um pleased about. That's over 650 million.
It's everything that they were talking about, they basically said, "Hey, look, this was what They didn't say me, John, but they said this is a monster quarter." Something that you and I talk about all the time. And it was. That revenue growth in the mid-30s was a beat as well. So, the projections they've got going out to Q3 um
everything that you would have wanted them to say from a positive standpoint, they pretty much have said. And so, because of that, that's why we're seeing that stock flying to the upside today, up 17, 18%, whatever it might be. And great to see that there was some unusual option activity out there as well.
>> Yep, it certainly was unusual, even though it was so far out into the future. But, that might tell you, folks, that people expect Shopify to not just pop on this earnings report, but perhaps on another earnings report that'll hit prior to the September expiration.
All right. Um, let's dive into Arista Networks, Pete. Now, uh, you know, I'm not going to pretend uh, to be an expert on cloud-to-cloud computing, but that's what these guys enable, cloud-to-cloud computing. And
analysts expectations were for 2.83 billion. They came in over 3 billion.
So, a nice fat beat there. Uh, the EPS, earnings per share, also uh, was much above the street. In fact, percentage-wise, a lot more. It was 89 cents projected, and they came out at 102. So, this is a pretty damn nice uh,
report for ANET, Pete. But, um, it's only getting about a 5% pop. I was kind of surprised. I thought it might pop more. It did. It popped up to 215 early on, but now it's It's up 10 bucks, but it's only holding onto 200.
>> Well, let's also recognize, cuz you've got that chart up there, and I was just about to say, on July 30th, the stock was where?
>> [laughter] >> Let's call it a buck sixty.
You were actually even lower, but let's let's just call it a buck sixty to make it easy. And here we ARE AT 200.
>> [laughter] >> THAT IS A PRETTY DAMN NICE MOVE. And we've seen that a couple of times, John, during this last quarter of earnings, where some of these stocks, they crush it. They do everything right. This is a great example of that. They did everything that you could have possibly wanted them to do. However, they've already moved along the way. And, you know, sometimes that's going to mute
that a little bit, and I think that's exactly what we're seeing there. Should it be more than this? Yes. But, given the fact that we were at 160, and now at 200, I would say, uh, I think they'd say that they'd be pretty pleased with that kind of a result, John. And that's just days ago. I mean, we're we're talking about what? Last Thursday? Something
like that, I think, for the 30th. So, yeah, a really big move. I I think Arista has done a great job. They also had really strong um guidance, as well.
And the analysts, the upgrades, they all came flying out now, John. They didn't come out on on the July 30th. They're coming out now. But, this is a stock that's made a heck of a move, man, in a very, very short period of time. And and I think a lot of these guys, probably in a smart way, these analysts wanted to get uh
get in not necessarily in front of it, cuz they're a little late, but they wanted to move some of those numbers around, that's for sure.
>> Yeah. Well, uh the numbers were pretty stunning, and uh the next stock we're going to cover, CDW, Computer Discount Warehouse, we used to call it, but CDW, they actually had pretty much across-the-board decent numbers here, Pete. But, um all of a sudden, you know,
uh a significant person in the C-suite decides they're going to leave, not being pushed out for anything inappropriate, at least not even any rumors about that. But, uh CFO Albert Merelles um says, "Hey,
I'm going to retire in 2027." And people say, "Hmm, CFO leaving, huh? Sell, sell, sell." And I mean, they knocked the stock all the way down to 113, Pete.
That was a big drop, because, you know, this one closed last night, let me see here, Pete, at 154.
So, in other words, they just dropped 40 bucks out of it, bang, like that. Now, it's rallied back uh somewhat. It's not all the way back, but it has rallied back to 135. I think that was probably overdone, given that we didn't have a scandal or anything tied to it, Pete.
>> Yeah, no scandal, and it was a planned retirement, but I It it it gives a lot of respect for what the CFO has done, I guess.
Um just because if they're going to turn and and start just selling the living tar out of this stock based upon that after they put up great numbers and this guy apparently did have some great leadership and people did think the world of him, but uh man, uh that is a huge reaction for the CFO walking away. We've seen CEOs walk away
and we've seen some movement, but probably not quite even to the movement we're seeing today out of this particular stock with CDW. So, um hats off to the CFO. I mean, Mr.
Morales obviously has done a great job and people respect him for that and they're just nervous about, all right, well, who's taking it? Who's in charge?
So, that I'm sure they're going to have to drop that out there sooner or later, but um definitely something that was market moving on on like you were saying, when you look at the numbers, the numbers that they put up look pretty damn good. It it dampened those numbers because of the fact that the CFO is finally putting it out there that he's, you know, committed to being a guy who
wants to get into retirement. Makes sense. Makes sense.
>> Yeah, I agree. And again, um it just gives you an idea of how much you can move markets just on a little change in sentiment. Um because again, no scandal, um but oh, this is the guy that's helped them get to here. Oh, sold sold sold. Um anyway,
uh let's take a look at a little video here, Pete.
>> Yeah.
>> I know that uh so many of you guys like these. Um here are two brothers, the Lombard brothers. And uh it turns out, Pete, on the same day they're playing the Cardinals. The Cardinals um lower level team, you know,
double A, triple A, whatever. And the Yankees playing the Cardinals as well.
But let's let the uh video uh play and you guys help us out.
>> Witness one of the craziest things you may ever see for a debut in major league history. As we know, 21-year-old George Lombard Jr. made his major league debut tonight versus the Cardinals and almost 1,300 mi south his brother Jacob Lombard, who was the 14th overall pick in the recent MLB draft, was making his professional debut. Now, if this can't
get any more bizarre, Jacob was a part of the Marlins system when deep at his second at bat. And believe it or not, moments later older brother George, also in his second at bat, hit a home run for his first major league hit. What's even crazier, both home runs were off of breaking balls, both balls went to left
field, both had a 33° launch angle, and both, believe it or not, had exit velocities of 100 mph. As if things couldn't get even more insane, both brothers were facing the Cardinals.
Jacob Lombard recently signed a $5 million signing bonus with the Marlins and brother George became the youngest Yankees infielder to debut since Derek Jeter did so in 1995.
This is something we may never see again in baseball history. We just witnessed one of >> Well, how could you even imagine anybody seeing that again?
>> Ever.
>> I'd put up the odds.
>> I don't know. Let me see.
>> Two brothers are going to both make it, uh, you know, into the major leagues.
The one is still down in the minors, but >> Still.
>> um, a $5 million signing bonus, they don't expect him to be down there for the Marlins very long, people.
>> No.
>> And they both go yard on the same day and virtually the same pitch, I'd say. Don't throw a breaking ball. Don't throw a breaking ball to these two guys.
>> And goes out of left field. I mean, everything was That's That's almost pretty freaky, actually, right? I mean, [laughter] that's You can't You couldn't if you were if you were in in, uh, Hollywood, you wrote that up, people would say, "Oh, that's a bunch of crap." >> [laughter] >> Well, there it is.
It's pretty amazing. All right, John, I got something amazing for you.
I thought this was kind of fun because of the your Chicago Bears. And John used to play with the Chicago Bears for the people who don't know that. He was a linebacker with the Bears back in the days of Singletary and all the all the guys. And that was a lot of fun and and stuff. But there's a new sheriff in town, John. And it is uh the right tackle for the Chicago Bears, Darnell Wright.
So, just a couple years ago, you guys said, "You know what? We're going to take this kid." He was the 10th pick in the 2023 draft. Well, it turned out to be a pretty damn good move.
And I think that the GM um down there has done what they needed to do for a long time, which is, "Hey, look.
We can have great quarterbacks, but we're not going to be great quarterbacks very long if we don't have an offensive line." So, what has he done? He's gone out either in free agency or in the draft and found the right guys, right?
So, Darnell Wright, he's got this historic 4-year contract, John, that he just signed yesterday.
It's $116 million, uh dollars.
93 million guaranteed. He's averaging 29 million per year. Not so bad. He's played in 49 games so far, and he's only missed two games when he uh when he was healthy.
Um he's only missed two games total. So, it's just amazing to look at what this guy does. He it His win rate when it comes to blocking is 95 and 1/2%. Not so bad.
Uh they had 68 sacks back in 2024. You know how many you had last year? 24.
I think your left tackle, your right tackle, your guards, and your center, I think they're all doing their job pretty good for Williams back there, John. So, they had the third fewest sacks in the NFL last year. Just think about that. 68 to the third lowest. So, they've done a lot of things right, and it looks like it's moving pretty damn good for da Bears. What do you think
about this?
>> The Bears.
>> Exactly.
>> That's right. Well, um yeah, it's great for Darnell Wright. Um he's almost 6'6", Pete. You know, anybody else would say he's 6'6". The pros say he's 6'5" and 3/8".
Um but uh 325 lb, he is a road grader, too. If you ever see this guy and you know, he he's going to line up against some of the best. There's no doubt cuz the Bears have a difficult schedule this year. But
um he takes big tackles, Pete, and buries them. He takes defensive ends and buries them. He takes linebackers, you know, if he scrapes or whatever and goes to the outside to lead a toss or something like that. Oh my god. At 325
um the kid is talented. Great kid out of Tennessee. Um we're lucky to have him there and uh I hope he plays all the way to 2030.
>> Yep. I like I like I like this kid a lot, too, and I think I think building that offensive line, that's where these guys are finally pulling their head out of your new their you know what, right?
I mean, that's that's where it has to start. You could be the greatest quarterback in the world, but you don't have an offensive line, it's going to be damn tough. Um next up, John, how about a little college football with Notre Dame because last year they missed the the the playoff and they were ticked off, so they decided not to play in any bowl games. And they had a 10 and 2
record. So, you look at Notre Dame this year and you know, a lot of people can make up a lot of different ways that they they they view that whole thing. Some people are pretty ticked off about it that they didn't still go to a bowl game. Some people thought, you know what, this was the right thing to do. They deserved to be in the playoff. Well,
Jeremiah Love is gone.
Jaden Price is gone. Some of the great players, I I they put at least six or seven guys into the NFL, John, off of the 22 starters. So, that's not so bad, but that's a little bit bad for the team because they've they've lost those players.
Uh not really. They just set them up again and they get them again, John.
They've got such a good recruiting as well as just finding the right guys that fit into Notre Dame the right way. CJ Carr had a had a decent year. I think he could have even a better year. A lot of people are talking about this kid. 10 and 2 record that they had last year. I think this is the key. If they truly
want to be in the playoff, they can only have one loss.
Because of the fact that they're independent and they're able to play, you know, a different schedule that you're not playing the entire SEC and you're not playing the ACC the entire race not playing the entire Big 10. But, these guys because they're independent and stay independent, I think that that the fair thing about this is they do
have to go 11 and 1. If they if they want to go to the playoff, if they go 10 and 2, they still got a shot at it and they probably should have been put in there last year, John, quite frankly, but they didn't. But, they're going to have to, you know, they're they should be their goal should be just one loss.
So, what do you think? Can they get there with two losses? I think they can, but I think it might be a stretch.
>> It might be a stretch. I mean, against unranked teams, there ain't no.
Against ranked teams, especially teams, Pete, that were under the top 20. So, in other words, like when they lost to Miami, Miami was a number 10 team. They lost in Miami, so at least you could kind of say, "Okay, well, they, you know, it was nonetheless a very, very
close game settled by a field goal, 24-27." They lost. Um against Texas A&M, that's what killed them. Because against Texas A&M at home, they lose 41 to 40.
And there were parts of that game that didn't seem nearly as close as that score implies because Texas A&M was kicking their butts.
But you know, it is what it is. So they go 0 and 2 against you know, the highly ranked teams. They beat USC, you know, say what you will about USC, but they were ranked and they at the time they were ranked 20th. They beat them.
It at Notre Dame at home. Then at Pittsburgh, they crushed Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh was ranked 23rd at that time. And I would say, you know, looking at that as your, you know, resume if you will, Pete, I would say
I can see why they could get left off last year. If they do the same thing this year, if they lose two games like you said, they can probably only lose one and be guaranteed in. But if they lose two and they split with ranked teams, I think they toss them again. I don't think they'd let them in again. So
we'll see.
Some of those players better be ready to really, you know, strap it on and go hard this year because again, at home to lose to Texas A&M with your huge, you know, 80,000 person crowd and Texas A&M on the road, how how do you do that?
>> Yeah.
>> Especially when it when it's a shootout 41-40.
But you know, that's what happened and I think that's the game that did it in for them.
>> Yep. Yep. I agree with you. Well, they sure look good. I love the coach. I think the world of him. I think he's done a really great job academically as well as athletically what he's done at Notre Dame. I mean, the guy's just an impressive dude, man. I mean, he is he's pretty special. So, you know, I kind of I kind of pulled for him because of that if nothing else that he's he's a
heck of a coach, but to your point, you got to do the right thing, you got to beat the right teams at the right times. And if you could do that, you're going to be part of this thing, and if they make this thing bigger and bigger, Notre Dame's going to leapfrog in there every single year.
But, for right now, they're going to have to get there themselves at least at the very most two losses at the very most, and they better have been good losses.
>> Yeah, they better be top 10 teams. Um but, all right, well, we'll be back tomorrow, which happens to be the last Rebels Edge of the week. What time are we on tomorrow, Pete?
>> We're on 1:00 p.m. tomorrow, John, Eastern time, and I'll tell you what, we're excited about it. We're going to have some more fun sports stuff, but with all the earnings and everything that's out there, we got we got us a lot of stuff to talk about.
>> All right. Thanks for joining us, folks.
Have a great one. We'll see you tomorrow at 1:00.

Transcript from the show's YouTube captions; automatic captions may contain errors. Educational content, not investment advice.