How do you calculate the expected move of a stock?

Short answer

The expected move is the range options traders are pricing for a stock by a set date. A quick estimate is the price of the at-the-money straddle; a more precise one is price × implied volatility × √(days/365). About two-thirds of the time, price ends inside that one-standard-deviation range.

QQQ volatility skew, live

As of Oct 17, 8:55 PM ET

25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV, in volatility points. Source · Rebel Intelligence.

Two ways to calculate it

Straddle method: add the at-the-money call and put prices for the expiry — that total is roughly the expected move in dollars.
IV method: stock price × IV × √(days to expiry ÷ 365).

How traders use it (examples, not advice)

Place short strikes outside the expected move for income trades.
Compare it with past earnings moves to judge whether options look rich or cheap.
Set realistic targets for directional trades.

Common questions

How accurate is the expected move?

It is a probability range, not a forecast. Price stays inside the one-standard-deviation move roughly 68% of the time in theory, and big surprises break it.

Does the expected move tell you the direction?

No. It is symmetric — it estimates how far, not which way.

Go deeper with Rebel Intel

What is the expected move for NVDA earnings?What is SPY's expected move this week?Compare AAPL's expected move to its past earnings moves

Educational only, not investment advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See how Intel is reviewed.