Know your odds before you risk a dollar.
The Rebel Trade Probability Engine scores every setup against two decades of history, live options flow, the geopolitical climate, and our AI ensemble — so you trade math, not hope.
Score any trade in 5 seconds.
Type a ticker. Pick a strategy. Get a real probability of profit, win/loss ratio, and a plain-English verdict — powered by live spot pricing and the same engine baked into Rebel Trade.
Demo uses our public POP model with a live spot quote. The full engine inside Rebel Trade adds OptionPulse flow, macro overlay, and AI ensemble on top of these numbers.
Six signals. One score.
The engine isn't a single model spitting out a number. It's a stack of independently audited signals that vote on every setup.
20+ years of price action across bull, bear, and chop regimes — every setup is backtested against analogous market conditions before scoring.
Live OptionPulse unusual activity, dark-pool prints, and institutional sweeps weight the engine toward where the smart money is positioned.
IV rank, term structure, and skew tell us whether premium is rich or cheap — the difference between a fair coin flip and a real edge.
Real-time conflict, sanctions, and macro headlines penalize trades exposed to event risk and reward setups insulated from it.
Rates, dollar index, sector rotation, and breadth — the regime detector that prevents you from fighting the tape.
Multiple models vote — probability stacking, not single-shot prediction. You get the consensus score, not one algo's opinion.
Ingest → Score → Stress-test → Recommend.
No black box. Here's exactly what happens between you typing a ticker and the engine telling you whether to take the trade.
Spot, IV surface, OptionPulse flow, macro tape, geopolitical feed — refreshed every market tick.
Lognormal terminal distribution + payoff topology yields a true Probability of Profit, not a vibe.
Engine simulates IV crush, gap risk, earnings windows, and regime shifts before approving the trade.
You see a probability %, win/loss ratio, breakevens, and a plain-English call: take it, tighten it, or skip it.
Four real scores. Four annotated outcomes.
Every trade below was scored by the engine before entry. We've annotated what it saw, what verdict it issued, and how the trade actually resolved — wins, losses, and the ones we walked away from.
- Engine callPOP 64% · Win/Loss 1.78× · Verdict Favorable
- EntryFilled 0.93 debit on 5-wide spread, day 0 of 30 DTE.
- Mid-tradeAAPL ran +3.2% into earnings — short strike tested but held.
- ExitClosed for 1.31 credit @ day 22 — captured 80% of max profit.
- Engine callPOP 31% · Win/Loss 0.42× · Verdict Pass
- Member actionTrade skipped on AI verdict — no capital deployed.
- What happenedTSLA closed at 268.40 — call expired worthless. -100% avoided.
- Engine callPOP 72% · Win/Loss 2.10× · Verdict Favorable
- EntrySold IC for 1.42 credit, both wings 1.2σ from spot.
- Stress testCPI print spiked SPY 0.9% — both shorts stayed inside the cone.
- ExitClosed for 0.58 debit @ day 14 — 60% of max profit, redeployed capital.
- Engine callPOP 38% · Win/Loss 0.71× · Verdict Pass
- Member overrideTrader took the setup anyway against the engine.
- OutcomeNVDA moved 4.1% on print — under the priced move. Both legs lost theta + IV crush.
- LessonLogged in journal: engine "Pass" verdicts have a 71% avoid-rate when overridden.
Examples are illustrative of real engine outputs. Track-record figures across the full membership are independently audited — see track record.
Generic POP calculators don't know the market.
Most online calculators stop at a normal-distribution guess. The Rebel Trade Engine layers real flow, real macro, and real AI on top.
Score it, no matter how you trade.
Long calls and puts with breakeven and edge math.
Bull call / bear put — width-aware win/loss ratios.
Two-sided POP with credit + wing stress tests.
Assignment probability and effective cost basis.
IV crush stress test built into every score.
Theta-aware scoring that punishes lottery tickets.
Stop guessing. Start scoring.
Every Rebel Trade member gets the Probability Engine wired into their order ticket, scanners, and AI Trade Review. Score your next trade in under a minute.